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Blockchain Market size potential is relevant too .....
In 2019, it was estimated that around $2.9 billion were invested in blockchain technology, which represents an 89% increase from the year prior. Additionally, the International Data Corp has estimated that corporate investment into blockchain technology will reach $12.4 billion by 2022.[66] Furthermore, According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), the second-largest professional services network in the world, blockchain technology has the potential to generate an annual business value of more than $3 trillion by 2030. PwC's estimate is further augmented by a 2018 study that they have conducted, in which PwC surveyed 600 business executives and determined that 84% have at least some exposure to utilizing blockchain technology, which indicts a significant demand and interest in blockchain technology.[67]
Individual use of blockchain technology has also greatly increased since 2016. According to statistics in 2020, there were more than 40 million blockchain wallets in 2020 in comparison to around 10 million blockchain wallets in 2016.
SlowRoll - ha - but probably more accurate :-)
Not as user friendly as ragnarr but any way here's a link to another paper on DEFI. Quite interesting. Defi is coming and I hope our fortunes are not so closely linked to the price of BTC as some would imagine.
https://yop.finance/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/YOP_Whitepaper_final.pdf
maybe the Duke will know nearer the time if allowed to say, i was wondering when you own 10% of a company sometimes you can get a seat on the board in some capacity, wonder if he's been offered ?
@ragnarr,
thanks, you'll never be on the filter list, excellent research !!
fleshes the valuation bones a little, of course that's all that can be achieved at this early stage.
once pendulum goes live, value can more easily be ascertained.
we await Dynasty news, 2 scenarios
1...if the anticipated bid is off , they were "talking" to one big tech company, they are not obliged to advise market if they have stopped talking. which leads to 2
2... IPO is April 2022? , if memory services, so if number 1 does not come to fruition, we will hear nothing else until March at earliest, at which time they will advise of IPO date
so we have a position of uncertainty , for a maximum of a couple of months and for a minimum until Dynasty advise what the conclusion of big tech is. or Pendulum goes live (which is anticipated Q2 ? )
Money can be made from uncertainty !!
Bon chance !!
reachforthestars - Ahh youve embarrassed me now as I didnt go more into Dapps, so thank you for mentioning and going through it - I concur with all your thoughts.
Nice one Ragnarr. What I like and thankfully what you eventually went on to include was about the pendulum blockchain and OTHER apps (Dapps?) that will also run on it. As, assuming Satoshipay are successful testing pendulum blockchain/bridge/token on mainnet which looks pretty much nailed on then we can expect revenue when the PEN token is used by other Dapps that will run using the PEN token/bridge. How many Dapps will eventually run using this? could be a decent number. This for me De-risks our investment in Satoshipay/Dtransfer/Pendulum because even if we fail to get any major uptake on B2B cross payments with Dtransfer (convincing businesses to switch to using us) - Sales pitch etc etc then we still have the revenue flowing in from Pendulum which could be rather large when other Dapps are built on it (if I'm reading it all correctly). I also feel that Stellar themselves need another win so will dip their hand into their significant marketing budget and help promote both the use of Dtransfer and the PENdulum bridge/network itself. Just my thoughts anyway.
Thanks Ragnarr. Great research and thanks for sharing with us all.
Amazing generosity in sharing your research. Many thanks, ragnarr. Wishing everyone a relaxing weekend.
3) Dtransfer
So I have already been though the potential value of DTransfer in part 4 (ie If Dtransfer were able to capture only 0.5 percent of that annual market it would equate to 600 million USD revenue) But Dtransfer states that it can carry out transactions quicker and cheaper, again there is no info about how much cheaper so even if you assume it could be done 50 percent cheaper we are still looking at 300 million annual profit. So what would that make Satoshipay worth.
Well take Coinbase. Coinbase is the largest crypto currency exchange in the US with just under 2 billion USD Revenue and between 800m USD – 1.2billion USD profit, Coinbase is now listed on Nasdaq with a market cap of 42 billion USD.
If you want to extrapolate that same ratio to Pendulum/Dtransfer a producing 300 million USD (0.5 percent of the potential market) it would be valued at around 10 billion USD
There you have it – I have finished. No predictions, no real valuation, and certainly no advice. All I hope to achieve is to have given anyone the opportunity to have enough information to decide for themselves.
For what its worth I am a believer and have added substantially to my position over the past few days but remember for every apple corporation there is a Betamax (you’ve got to be a certain age to get that)
Im off, a good single malt awaits
Skol
Part 5 Value.
Everything here is purely academic as everything is down to the success or the failure of Pendulum. All I can do is state the fact and let everyone else decide for themselves whether or not the potential will come to fruition and/or at what level and therefore what it is going to be worth. I simply do not know. My impression of Meinhard and his team is they are far more intelligent than me. I think I understand their vision and if successful it could simply be mind-blowing
But my caveat is there are far more participants the dead-ducks graveyard than there are in Unicorns heaven. If you get my drift
So in simple terms the current valuation is simply built on the fact that several crypto investors have seen the vision and are prepared to stake 5million USD for 20% of Pen Tokens and so the current book value has to be 25m USD everything from here is potential.
As I see it currently Satoshipay (micro payments) and DTransfer have little or no value. We have no idea of revenues so its all about Pendulum
I believe there are three avenues for value
1) Pen Token
From what I can gather there are currently 200,000,000 Pen tokens issued with 20 percent pre-sold. Pendulum will not be retaining all of those tokens. They will be using them for Auction incentives and possible further sales. So until Pendulum enters auction and becomes a Parachain its pretty well impossible to put a true value on how many are retained or their value.
I think it is important to note that the Pen token is not a crypto currency like Bitcoin a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin run off their Blockchain and act as money. Cyrpto tokens do not have their own blockchain they actually represent an asset (ie a pen token represents a stake in Pendulum) whereas a crypto coin is basically digital cash that can be spent. That is not to say they will not increase but their value will be linked to the success of Pendulum, so my gut feeling is that it could be a while before the pern token sees real growth.
But to give an example of what can happen Binance (a crypto currency exchange) launched on the Ethereum blockchain in 2017 with the BNB token priced around £5 today is at £343. But Binance is huge. (last reported profit of around 1 billion USD)
2) Pendulum Blockchain
If my understanding is correct, as the Pendulum blockchain is opensource it will be open to other applications to run off of it in the same way that DTransfer will. My understanding is that this will generate income as Pendulum allow other applications to join (in the same way Pendulum will lease its Parachain slot on Ethereum)
I cant put a value on this as I simple have no idea of the value of this as I cant find any info accordingly but the more applications that join the more the income and I would assume that this would be in the form of the relevant applications native tokens. So again this income will relate to the success of the Pendulum Blockchain.
Not to worry though if LTH ……..new highs will be seen again.
Hi Bowlers could be to do with drop in tech (in correction territory) including Cripto :(
You sound as if you must be a similar age to me Ragmarr, but far more technical knowledge than me I has 16 years insurance rep 70's and 80's and over 25 years of trading but apart from russian nonsense in Ukraine why is bluestar price continually dropping every day
I now own over 3 million blue shares but am concerned no dynasty news news?
If Dtransfer were able to capture only 0.5 percent of that annual market it would equate to 600 million USD revenue. Jeez what does that make Satoshipay worth
Last part coming. Promise
So imagine a scenario where if you need to transfer a large sum of money from one country to another and instead of going to a bank you simply go online choose where your money is, and choose where you want to sent it and do instantly.
Or if you want to borrow or invest and you go online choose your preferred deal and simply do it, no banks, no brokers, no accountants.
Well this project of mine has convinced me that is where this is all heading and our dear friends at pendulum are developing the first piece of that new jigsaw. The ability to automatically link crypto to Fiat without all the current phaff that goes with it.
What Pendulum are building is the open source blockchain that will allow various Defi applications to interact with the likes of you and I, for borrowing, lending and transferring money instantly without even really realising that digital currency is involved.
This is exactly what Dtransfer is designed to do – transfer large sums of cross border money, cheaper and faster that using an institution. The value of cross border transactions is estimated to reach 250 trillion USD by 2027 according to Bank of England – all done by bankers. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/payment-and-settlement/cross-border-payments
A few years ago I sold a business to a foreign company for a substantial sum (relative to me) and on the day of completion It didn’t happen for some banking reason so was set for the following day. I was waiting another 4 hours the next morning for my solicitor to tell me I could retire, and in that time there were exchange rate differences, and fairly considerable costs involved. Dtransfer would have sorted the transaction instantly.
Now from what I can tell the current glitch with Dtransfer and is the liquidity pool due to the large figures involved. If I have this right in simple terms the Fiat money is converted to digital currency which is instantly in the blockchain system, which then comes out the other end and is then converted into say GBP. This is really only computers doing smart contracts but it has to be backed up by the equivalent amount of digital crypto to facilitate the exchange. So knowing the huge amounts of money that is being transferred every minute this liquidity pool also needs to be huge. In Meinhards interviews he referred to this problem as being the catalyst for developing Pendulum because the connection to the blockchain allows access to unlimited digital currency, hence solving the problem.
I think it is with Dtransfer where the real value is going to come from. As someone pointed out to me yesterday 1 percent of the cross-border transaction market makes it a unicorn.
According to JP Morgan The annual cost of cross-border payments is 120 billion USD – That not the amount that’s what the banks are getting.
https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2021/nov/unlocking-120-billion-value-in-cross-border-payments.pdf
Part 4 Pendulum
Every time I think Ive got to the end of this project of mine more crops up that need research,
I apologise now and understand if everyone has got bored by now but to have any idea of working out the potential I need to fully understand exactly what Pendulum can open up and if I am going to attempt to make any kind of valuation I need to back it up. I will try to be make it short.
So I have had to delve more into the whole DeFi world to understand precisely what can be achieved here.
So in traditional finance everything has to go through an intermediary, a bank or financial institution. If you want a loan, transfer money, or invest money you have to physically have bank accounts where that money is stored or borrowed from. Although this is done on-line it is still a numerous number of individual institutions trying to co-operate with each other using different (outdated and clumsy) technology. They also take your hard-earned money ay every junction along the way.
Decentralised Finance effectively operates without the need for those decentralised intermediaries. Everything within the DeFI blockchain is connected and automated via algorithms and facilitates transactions directly between parties. The Blockchain infrastructure replaces the centralised financial institutions. This is done through the smart contracts (computer programmes). Through these smart contracts, a set of ‘rules’ are set as to how the particular financial service will work and once the smart contract has been deployed it cannot be altered. So basically, you know exactly what, when and how you are getting, which effectively cuts out any fraud because the smart contract cannot be altered in any way is executed immediately.
In order to create a reliable and secure DeFi system you obviously need a stable base currency. Bitcoin or Ether are simply no good as they are way too unstable and volatile. This is why stablecoins are so important. A stablecoin is pegged to a currency – pretty well exclusively to the American Dollar
For the Pendulum project enter Stellar. Stellar stablecoin protocol is specifically designed to create, send and trade digital and fiat and is pegged to over 20 different fiat currencies – and growing.
So this stuff is already going on, and its growing and its brillian, but heres the rub – you really have to fully understand the crypto world and become part of it. You have to own some crypto, so you have to set up your wallets and do stuff that most of us don’t really understand. And if you want to transfer your Bitcoin to someone in Chile who doesn’t have crypto accounts you have to transfer it back to USD and then use the banks again etc etc. This can all be done now but the whole process is inefficient, time consuming and complicated.
Clearly the development of Defi is to bring it to the masses, the old gits like me that just want to go online and buy or transfer something.
Thanks Ragnarr, appreciate the quality information.
@dukee
have you spoken with anyone with regards PEN ?
is it anticipated that BLU shareholders may be able to participate in PEN token (other than open market)
i suspect you maybe are not privy to this info yet, but will be interesting to see how we BLUY shareholders may get a few PEN at a reasonable price.
excellent stuff ragnaar, many thanks
i'm interested in PEN token, valuation, timelines, processes etc...not really concerned with too much else crapto.
if you do have a take on timelines, process and valuation specifically with regards PEN , i would be most interested
thanks for the info you have offered thus far, interesting.
just outside Edinburgh me, so my thoughts on the complexity which ragnarr is explaining is that maybe buying DOT at $25 is the way to go with ATH at $55
Yes Duke next time I am in London which is where I presume you are, we can have a beer also my friend
Yes Duke Ragmarr knows his stuff
Well Bernadotte my family live a long time and you and I can have more chats when all make some money off bluestar
Ragnarr you’re an asset to this board - many thanks