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We were all waiting for that RNS to drop o 16az...everyone was expecting it to read as he said, and when I read it my heart sank as no doubt did many others, dreams crushed plans people had all gone.
He should apologise publically then resign...what a very stupid stupid man.
I’m glad you said that.I think the same,he actually comes over as someone who is well out of his depth..not saying he is,although presentation matters.
Paul Haywood doesn't come across as having authority in his TV interviews, and he's made a number of errors, e.g. in units, rates, or which field he's talking about, which I wouldn't expect a CEO to make. He doesn't fill me with confidence.
However he does have some good advisers and technical guys & the consultants they use I know are good,time will tell.
Count- yes he’s made a good job of mucking up the sentiment for sure and like you say it’s hard to change that. I’m surprised they are still ramping the company in their most recent interviews, yet did not answer many of the questions that need to be answered. Personally I won’t be averaging down, will stick to my initial invest at 13p and go from there.
Gary1960, by you posting on the MATD board and putting my name out will not resolve any issues here.
PH needs to come out with news. Get your head around that jeez
Mike- agree if 16az starts to decline in production then this will go south very quickly. I think it will be at 3p at best.
17p were factored in on the expectation of 1100-1500boed on 16a alone plus the other wells that were expecting to be online by year end
Think we need a mircale to achieve that, and nobody raised queries why they need to recruit an outside expert to look at the well
All I know is 17p high was driven by positive sentiment not facts.
It's going to take time and very good news flows to get this up above that 17p.
The complete screw up by PH has damaged the markets confidence and that's going g to take time to fix.
Only figures and facts can move this up or down.
Bill, and if 16az doesnt come in as expected, its gonna be one hell of a sp slide
MA1BRW - Looks like you have a sizeable holding and you have managed to buy in at 2.5p below the II's who paid 11p each for £12 millions worth - so I would say on balance you should be sitting pretty. I know the SP has drifted down and a lot of us are looking at a paper loss - it only becomes a "live" issue if you actually need to sell. If you can hold for the next 6-12 months things will look different IMHO but as always DYOR - I tend to filter out the rabid rampers and de-rampers.
Count- so you’re saying this share will always stay in the 14-15p range?
I think people invested at those levels can still make money myself included of this company gets its acts together, but it will be very hard for them to turn the market sentiment around. After all we had the spike to 17p on the back of s very woolly update, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon unless there is a dramatic change in output levels.
However what we do know is this company can’t afford any mistakes or bad results now, otherwise it will be back down to 3-4p range.
The 12 million in the banks is not a saving grace like some people keep going on about. Remember these wells cost around £2m each to build so there is only enough for around 6 weeks assuming they continue to store the oil rather than sell. We really need a RNS showing increased production volumes, sales happening and cash coming in as a result. Finally the price of crude had droppped so we can do with done updated forecasts.
Yeah but do remember, all those calculations doesn't apply until they actually happen.
Don't forget the same people promised to deliver in Ghana, in the end relinquished all 3 acquisitions leaving investors staring down some empty holes
No I think your figures are roughly correct. On my own rather conservative calculations the SP currently should be around the 10p-11p level. However there have been "issues" that have driven sentiment in the market against the company and the SP has suffered. There is a well documented work program of well work-overs and a deep gas well drill coming up in the next 6-12 months. A production update on the oil and a contract to sell gas (with infrastructure in place) will see the SP rapidly heading north. I think in the past Paul Haywood (and the BOD) were over-keen to release "news" and now the reverse seems to be happening it's a waiting game ...................................
Sea7...I do agree with all you say and I can see money being made here long term for all holders, I'm out of it now and the remaining money allocated elsewhere.
If I had another nice lump to invest I would buy again at this sp for sure.
If anyone invested here at around 14, 15p like I did then get more in now and get your avarage down as low as poss and you should do ok, as for people hoping to multi bag, I don't think so unless you got in early.
are you not mixing dollars and pounds?
why a p e at all- that implies recurring revenue- how do you know how much is in there?does anyone?
lots of variables obviously eg price of oil .
but a good effort
I own approx 480,000 shares at an average of 8.5p
I'd like some clarification on the current share price if we run a simple scenario.
Am I missing something below?
Oil @ $55 cash for Bloe $25 per barrel
We know 16aZ produces 295+ bopd
We know highly likely 38Z to produce 295+ bopd
590 bopd off 2 wells.
Monthly production is therefore - 590 x 30 = 17,700
Yearly production is 17,700 x 12 = 212,400 approx
Cash 212,400 x $25 = 5,310,000
Value @ 8x multiple 42,000,000
Cash in bank from new share placing - 12,000,000 reduced to say 7,000,000.
394,000,000 shares gives a value of 12.5p per share
So given we are only currently producing 295 bopd that we know the current share price of 6-7p stands to reason
However, if we get an update with 16aZ producing 500bopd & 38Z hits 200 bopd we have big SP changes ahead.
If we end up with 1000 bopd before year end (by some miracle) the figures above mean the SP goes towards 20p
If I have missed something please call me out and explain
Whilst I agree with you that resource stock are risky, bloe is drilling into known deposits and into wells that have produced before. This increases the COS considerably and sets the company apart from the wildcatters.
Even in a recession, a stock that is funded, with a good story and is delivering on its objectives, will have a solid base to its operations and will be one of the stocks that out performs.
Tech stocks are the future, resourse stocks are too risky as I have learned the hard way.
We are sliding into resession rite now and this really isn't a good place to be folks.
It will rise in line with production figures. And there are 3 more wells coming into production.
It's simple really.
PH has betrayed all of us , I cut my losses and invested what's left into bids, I'm sure they will make me money instead of ripping me off.
Love is blind and reality gets swept under the carpet, by the time this stocks sp rises above what most bought in at...you will all be to old to spend it.....listen to Mike 31 bec those are facts.
From M31 - I do not see but assume he is here spreading a heady mix of doom and gloom mongering. He is NOT invested here so when he say “we” that does not include him. Just to put the record straight he is one of the principle members of the knocking crew. Nothing good comes out of his keyboard. I filter him 100%.
Problem with research is you can't research the future,...so imo a general consensus of the invested is a good start !!