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Looks like some momentum on BIRG now - will be interesting to see if the gains hold through ex-dividend
Observe,
I hear what you are saying and do not expect 24 profits to exceed 23. Commercial Property was hit in last quarter of 23 and feel this has further to fall. Question is what is the Banks exposure here - I recall reading in 1 of their statements their exposure was 60% to value which serves as a cushion.
The catalyst for BIRG will be if they announce a further buy back of 480mill ( bal of 1 bill announced at 22 agm) with the H1 24 results which would result in s/holding base being reduced to c 955/960 mill. Adopting today's makt cap of 10.6bill gives a SP of over €11. would also like to see a PBT fig of 1bn plus with H1 results which would u/pin sp.
Kenq,
simply means shareholder base reduced by c.16.5mill in 2024 through share buy backs.
Cuckoo,
" EVERYTHING when you equate COULD with DEFINITELY." Would you mind explaining what "reading between the lines" applies here. To me your statement could not be more explicit. It IS what it STATES and does not require referencing a dictionary or googling it UNLESS YOU ARE VERY BACKWARD.
You appear to have reached a stage when you are not looking into the rear view mirror you are reading between the lines.I have repeatedly posted that overlooking into the rear view mirror not good for one's state of mind !
" .. ....else here betting on no rate reduction in June " NOBODY has posted here there shall be no rate reduction.in June so why the gambling invitation ? While the odds COULD favour the scissors being applied in June ,with 6.5 weeks to go before June decision date I would be cautious about placing bets. If your gamble reaches too many ears in your influential IC circle you might see a little run on the Euro in f/x markets which in itself might scuttle your little foray into the gambling market.
A possible saving grace for you would be to encourage your IC influential mates " to read between the lines " which might result in a less severe run on the euro.
Can someone explain to my simple brain what the voting rights RNS means, has something changed? Thanks.
Cooking or Cuckoo as JH calls him has always been something of an oddball! Never did know if he was Arthur or Martha!
You should relax Cooking, let the intellectuals do the driving and you sit back and enjoy the ride. Stop kicking above your weight! You have never known when to take your chips of the table and when the SP blows cold you get into a right mess. If your average holdings price is above E10, take your chips off the table and go light a candle to the bank who came to the rescue with this share buyback. No one wants to listen to your whining post share buyback!
“It says EVERYTHING “
Now if you could read between the lines you would know exactly what I was saying Jon Jon
Take your time and work it out
Using a lot of capital letters lately johnny. That’s a bad sign
I’ll upgrade that to 100 percents(as JH says)
Anybody else on here betting no ECB rate reduction in June
Throw away that shovel quickly, cookie. That hole you're in is of ample sufficiency. 😂
Cuckoo,
It says EVERYTHING when you equate COULD with DEFINITELY.
QED.
John if you could read between the lines you would know that when the ECB saying could means definitely
When talking about 50cent more in Birg I was quoting you
As for the clown below when share price was €6.604 sell sell sell. And who agreed with him JH
Cuckoo,
would strongly recommend that you google the term "volatility". a week is a long time in politics and 6.5 weeks is longer in the market.less than a month ago BIRG traded at 8.92 (26/3) and as low as 7.92 on 26/2.
As regards "crystal clear" google states "ECB rates COULD be cut in June. You should also google "could" and you will find it's definition is very different to WILL. In fact their comments are on a par with those issued on 19/4 by the President and Governing Council of the ECB. So much could happen in coming 6.5 weeks to adjust the ECB mindset. Ukraine/Middle East tensions could escalate - oil /energy prices could escalate - you might cease looking through the rear view mirror . As regards a week being a long time in politics , less than a week ago you called me out for being "not fair when stopping/advising a poster not to sell at 10.12 " on same day you posted "... dont sell at 10.12 -go up another 50c, unfortunately currently at 9.55" Make your mind up as the song goes.
Excellent summery on the share buyback status @JohnHume.
If your call on timing of completion is right then the SP will remain firmly underpinned, for now.
Headwinds are growing however and once the underpin is completed, beware. At European and US bank level there appears to be pressure on the lending margin, the mainstay of banking and definitely so in the case of the Irish banks. For some reason they (Irish) have been able to get away with continuing to pay zero on call funds and for now appear to have been prepared to partly negate the full hike in lending rates, in particular to mortgages. This game in the US is about to break out, with massive backlash on zero bank rates when the curve is above 5% in the short end.
The other big issue is growth. No reason why BoI is going to outperform their performance in 2023. This year they do not and will not have a bump up from acquiring a good sized loan book. A net reduction of lending of E5b will not look pretty at the end of the year.
Sounds good
Our Johnny is calling €10.62 as a get out price premature ej…..
Not sure if this has been posted recently. Article in the Sunday Indo, Goldman Sachs have BIRG as a buy with a 12 month PT of €11.70 up €1.
Afternoon all. Starting off recognising that I know sweet FA….but here’s my tuppence on Irish Banking Shares. AiB sp is flying. Curious as to why BoI is lagging in market cap? A more cautious borrower and lender in ireland is both a positive (less bad debts) & negative (banks gotta lend for future earnings) - and assuming that interest rates unlikely to go below 2% in the near/medium it appears that there is good profits, good dividends to be made by all. Difficulties on the horizon - commercial real estate in ireland and abroad, the affect on Irish bank SP when a financial crisis hits in US (when, not if), markets view on other opportunities. Market cap on AiB seems reasonable historically. 15bn would be pushing it. A 12.5bn mc on BoI not unreasonable so 25% potential upside. Perm? A ruling on funds needed to be held against borrowing should see an upside of 30%. But…….what am I missing here?
It’s very clear Google ECB Crystal clear and you will see all the members of the governing council ‘s views
Let it go You loser
BIRG have bought back 16,176,435 shares as on the 18 April at a cost of €147,147,857. Average daily volume = 462,183 at average daily cost of €4,204,224.Balance available for buy backs = €372,852,143..
Between today and ex div date of 11 May there are 14 trading days so am assuming a buy back total of c 7 million shares at an assumed cost of little under €70 million leaving a balance of c.€300million for buy backs post ex div date. ie 30million shares approx to be bought back prior to release of H1 24 results in July so the buy back ante to be raised.
Divs applicable to c.23 million shares ( 16,176345 plus 7mill) = 13,905,807.
According To Christine Lagarde today - "Euro zone inflation is likely to decline further and the ECB MAY apply the scissors to interest rates if it's long standing price growth criteria are met ".
At the same time it's Governing Council is NOT PRECOMMITTING to a particular rate path " Lagarde said.REPEATING the Bank's most recent guidance.
Risks to the inflation outlook are 2 sided she said - upside risks include heightened geopolitical tensions as well as higher wage growth and more resilient profit margins.
So , Cuckoo, you may read between the lines, above the lines , below the lines or even the lines themselves but I for one cannot see any reference to it being CRYSTAL CLEAR that the scissors SHALL be applied in June with a further scissors application in July. Later I shall reexamine the comments of the ECB President and it's Governing Council through the eyes of an Eagle.
Interesting to note that AIB is now not far off Davy target price (about 8%) - however the current BIRG price is still way below their target price - looks like the momentum is with AIB at present.
Please explain where you got €14m figure from I’m not sure about it
AIB up 14.6% since going ex div.would be nice if BIRG appreciated 50% of that following ex div.
The 14mill saving on div payments going to reserves will help.
ECB have now moved on to discussing weather to cut again in July
Ash, yes I see what you mean with the “7%” today, although is a better look!
GLA
It would be great for everyone if we can reset and stop the childish bickering.
Hopefully the SP momentum upwards continues.... GLA
Johnny I’d give that post 2/10
I think your mixing up cooking with cuckoo
Cristal clear Johnny cristal clear
Read between the lines Johnny How many times