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I'm another one who topped up at 128p. Thought the fall then was overdone. Down over 40% seems ridiculous!
I too was looking to get in around 125, fortunately I got distracted and so managed to get in at 106. I am not sure if that is going to be good or not.
Good one! I thought I was smart getting in at 130p. Feels pretty dumb now. Tomorrow is another day tho'.
Bang Go my investment.....
Looking at last trading update of July 2023 cash position of $13.4m, now cash $3.75m. They are certainly getting through it, hope cash generation is strong enough to keep it positive then! The investment into DVM makes sense, let's see if it remains funded by this strong cash generation... Like I say I'm very tempted to top up now it's fallen 40% in a day, definitely overdone reaction
May as well go the whole hog at this level.
“Strong cash generation” but only net positive cash in FY 25 implies that EBITDA FY24 will be lower than previously expected, almost certainly because they are putting lots of resources into building the DVM business. With 7x the enquiries compared to 12m ago, this does make a lot of sense. I’m pretty sure the company will clarify this very soon. However they have completely failed to communicate this to the market properly with the results we see today. This has been very shoddy.
I don’t think that’s right, the loan was to accelerate growth opportunities. Also the interims just 3+m ago stated 2024 would see strong free cash flow generation, and one year ago the DOCOMO integration was expected to provide an extra $10m EBITDA in ‘24. Finally, the company could just rein in its spending on DVM if it looks like the cash will run out. So I just cannot see there being the need for an equity raise UNLESS they see the opportunity as being so compelling that it makes absolute sense.
Not being in yet and being opportunistic, i can see buyers from this morning baling lower and pushing the sp down further. it's certainly not looking like it's going to bounce today so £1 or look elsewhere.
gla
If the drop in SP is over reaction and everything is still on track albeit slightly delayed you would expect to see the BoD's piling in on the weak SP
Could the SP drop back below the £1 ? which would surely undervalue the company
Today's update states the loan is drawn to it's maximum, $8m. The question is will free cash flow be enough not to require any fresh equity raise until "a positive net cash position in FY25".
From the market reaction it seems sceptical. The update hints it will be enough, referencing "strong cash generation" but there's no definitive statement that it will be. Perhaps tempted to top up at these levels but it's still not certain that there won't be a final dilution from this point.
EBITDA2 is pre-exceptional so what have they classified as exceptional to arrive at the $5-6m?
Obviously with cash @ $3.75m ahead of expectations they have already begun tightening the belt on spend and if the $2m from the delayed US Telco comes in then along with the increased revenue then they should not require a cash injection for operational reasons, that said lets not forget the reasoning for the $8m loan was not for operational reasons but to give the Telco's confidence with the balance sheet so are we back pre loan ?
Surprising number of sells today - a huge number, though you can’t believe the stats. This for a company that thinks the super-bundling market opportunity is “vast” and it has the potential to operate the de facto market standard platform. FWIW I think the investment opportunity here is still excellent but pushed out a little.
It’s clear a lot of cash has used (much of the loan plus working capital), so I think the company needs to come out and state very clearly what the strategy is, and that cash reserves are sufficient.
Coming to the conclusion that following ST (from IC) is a sure path to losing big.
I was just about to point to the CEO statement on why the costs are the same but totally agree this is poor communication by the CEO. in fact communication over the last 12 months has been near to next to zero which is very poor and adds to the scepticism of investors
I should try reading the RNS properly instead of jumping in and out…..I notice now that Paul Larbey says that the synergy savings have been reinvested in the DVM. So perhaps a conscious decision to accelerate, given the market opportunity. Fine, but you have to signal that ahead of time, and be more open about it. You can’t just arrive at results day and surprise on the downside.
I’m surprised at the level of price drop this morning, still see lots of positives in the TU statement, minded to increase my holding and sit tight for 6-9 months, can only see this as a good time to buy.
On further reflection, costs appear to be c$20m in H2, same as H1. What’s happened to the integration benefits? $2m will be the unexpected cost of sales for the legacy business, but I expected more savings. That plus the c$4m revenue shortfall at 90% margin would virtually explain the shortfall in EBITDA I guess (Singer had c$12m compared to actual $5-6m I think). Being squeezed at both ends.
Agree on all points, also the CEO could have put a little more effort into the TU statement on the positives achieved and lookahead
Hilarious overreaction.
Disappointing TU, but lots of positive momentum. Certainly doesn’t warrant a 28% price drop, that’s crazy, especially when much of the shortfall in revenue and EBITDA seems to be timing and FX-related. Some confidence-rebuilding needed.
Update due in next week or so. Was 24 January last year and 11 January in 2022. Slightly surprised to see SP drifting down when news is imminent.
2025 is supposed to be the year for real “take-off”, according to Paul Larbey. Get those deals signed in ‘24 and sit back!
Just seen this on my X feed and was encouraged by it.
Looking forward to the update as I still have my entire holding.
Good luck all !