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Volmer, I agree there's a risk that met coal prices could potentially drop, but consensus is that if it does pull back, it should be conservative. Be interested to hear if you find different. On the shareholders, the big shareholders are all locked in. Are you concerned about lock in or influence on the 50% holder?
The main issue with the old owners were the $60m infrastructure cost which they could not pay back to the bank. Hence the bank got the mine! These new owners have no infrastructure cost to incur. Any production from the mine is pure profit!
Has a anyone read the prospectus? I have listened to the interviews and also read the prospectus and it becomes clear what prospects are based on fact and what are based on intentions/hope. The DCF value of the company is set out in the prospectus and this underlines why the placing was made at 10p. Main shareholders account for nearly 70% with one holding over 50% with all the risks that this brings. The Met coal price has increased by 300% in th least year or so. If it falls back down then this will a different story for Bens. These are my initial findings but more research being done.
$60million was spent on infrastructure. Freehold 10k acres of land!
Forward PE is 13.24
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
PE Ratio is normally between 10-25 times! Will dig out a link I had.
Agree with you calculations, however you would normally x by the industry p/e for valuation. Also need to be forward looking. At a p/e of 4 (which is low) on 46m profit is 184m. / 350m shares is 42p share price at current 264k production
Good find on this Kay. Positive interview and made Adam seem like a salesman! My takeaway from this is:
> Aiming to increase JORC from current 17m to 50m of proven coal reserves
> Target coal production 500k in 2022, 1m in 2023 and 2m in 2024
> Low production costs around $95. Although I think this is very low and cost may go up higher
> Possible acquisition of nearby fields if the opportunity arise
Based on the 264k production = £46m profit/350m shares, this equates to 13p. So this doubles to 26p if they double the production by end of next year. IMO, it's unlikely the the SP will get to £1 within the next few months unless they start producing millions of coal and something major happens. But I guess you never know with share prices?
Now that I understand the companies a bit more, not sure we can compare the SP of BENS vs TGA. Whilst TGA produce 15mt of thermal coal in the years, whereas BEN is only producing 300k of coking coal, maybe upto 500k if they announce another agreement.
TGA who produce thermal coal went from £1 to £5 in a space of a few months. Anything is possible.
Yes from a poster on Twitter looks like there going to be on the Sunday roast tomorrow as well. So more exposure. I will be buying more on Monday open.
Nice document Kay. Highlights the case nicely for this share. Can’t see it hanging around this price for long, especially when production starts in roughly 6 weeks.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/748491194035863672/901427805080924180/BEN_Factsheet.pdf
PE Ratio will be more 1 normally 10!
From interview $395 a tonne $300 profit
$45m EBITDA based on half of what there producing 22,000 tonnes per month.
Costs are more like 25% not 40%. Have a listen to the interview
The price of todays rate and profit are in the below video which was released today.
https://twitter.com/zakstraderscafe/status/1451472256622907440?s=21
Just wanna put my thoughts into the costings/assumptions. The £73m is based on realised coal price of $277 x 264,000. But this is just revenue. I don't exactly know the cost of production but assume it is around 60%. If so, that would mean the profit would only be £30m based on $110 x 264,000. Dividing this by the 350m shares, it means the SP should be around 8.4p for 50% capacity = £0.17p.
So ShareInvestment isn't far off from his 20p target. Hopefully with increase in prices, increase plant production including positive momentum and news, it could go higher.
CEO has plenty skin in the game with 8%
Company on track to enter production in 2 months with sales agreement already secured for January at $6.1m per month. That’s annual revenue of $73m which is only half the annual production plan. Company has will have no debt and only 20% of issues shares in public hands, which is 70m shares. The remaining 280m shares are subject to a minimum 12 month lock in.