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Penstock. Yes I was incorrect about the double shift, must have changed since the Roast interview.
I honestly didn't hear Adam say first train on 23rd in the Proactive interview - he said might be later this month but could be early June. Of course I'll be delighted if it's Monday, but that isn't what he said - he said they are ready to load and "we could, eg, load one on 23rd, one on 24th etc". More a "we're ready as soon as the train pulls in", not "the train is arriving Monday" statement.
No need to top up below 80p when I bought below 20p. Already a multibagger for me ;).
Hahaha, yes CGO is a dog. I should short it.
First train is on 23rd May 2022. Last time I checked that was a Monday.
You already tried saying I was wrong about the HWM doing double shift extraction but the latest interview proved YOU wrong. Now you are trying to FUD again. Give it a rest. Sorry if you missed topping up below 80p but you have missed that train now fella. Go trade CGO instead, at least we can agree on each other's thoughts about that stock ;)
Ah the Proactive interview - missed that as was out of the office yesterday. TBF he didn't say starting Monday - he merely said that they would be able to load next week if the train were sent. What he said was that there's a ship due to dock in June, and the trains will be organised to match - a few days before would be my expectation..
He reiterated that he would post photos when the train arrives "early next month" (though the last word of his sentence was clipped, I'm pretty sure he said month, not week).
Anyway, seems all on track so to speak!
Penstock, where have you got the "3 rail shipments booked for this month starting Monday" from?
James what shares do you love? Stick to your NFTs
James..April 29th you cashed out!!
Whats the matter? Did you miss buying back in during the 60s & 70s? Happy for you that you made profit but no FUD is going to stop the train now. Everyone had a great opportunity to start a BEN investment or top up over the last couple of weeks as BEN was flipped between 64 and 80p. All the news and repairs may have been a bit later than we expected and that has played into the hands of the doubters and traders, but we have still been selling coal in the meantime. I am invested here and have been topping up without cashing out to do so (actually that is a fib as I cashed out OEX to top up with BEN at 69p last week, but I was not a fan of oil anyway and that stock has some serious FUD!).
So yes, I am biased on BEN, but I am in big profit so could easily cash out and walk away or try my hand at trading it like you but I don't have that skill or disbelief in the stock. Only need to look at other new coal miners and realise how well BEN has done in 7 months. Yes the sp rose crazy fast, perhaps too fast, but a nice slow rise back over £1 and then steady away will be nice.
Adam has repeatedly said that if you want to go see it for yourself then you are welcome to visit the site. If you do, then please post a photo on facebook. I hope to get respite to fly over next year paid for by dividends.
And I’ll listen to it all day. Thanks Penstock
I think we’ll get a lot more than £2.72 per share Pen come Q4
Looooool we’ve heard it all before Pen.
? 3 rail shipments booked for this month starting on Monday, each loaded with 12KT HiVolB metcoal. BEN get roughly $200per short ton profits. 36KTx$200 = $7.2mprofit.
? The white HWM is now on double shifts extracting 80KT ROM = 40KT washed.
? Parts on the way to complete the build of the 2nd HWM which will go into production early June assuming permits land in time.
? 2nd HWM will be ramped up to double shift by August assuming those permits are in place and staff available.
? Underground mining of HiVolA will commence next week. This will be mixed in with the HiVolB as a top-up to produce HiVolB+ and maximise profits.
? Resources are due to be announced in 2 weeks by independent CPR firm Marshall Miller which is expected to be well over 20m tons extending LOM by 10-20years.
? Aiming for 1,000,000 tons washed metcoal per year with current acreage and infrastructure operating at $200 margin to give $200m EBITDA.
? Using a very conservative P/E of 6 gives $1200m. 354m shares. sp valuation $3.39 = £2.72
? Once BEN make £35.4m profit then Adam intends to Announce Dividends to shareholders of 10p. That means that anyone who originally invested at the IPO stage just 7 months ago at 10p will in effect get their investment back and still hold their shares. That means that anyone who bought shares at the closing price of 80p today will potentially get 12.5% back in dividends if they hold them till the ex-div date or more sensibly way beyond that date. Could be a nice Christmas award for both early and recent investors.
? BEN still have cashflow from the last $6m CLN as a safety net for any equipment repairs or purchases. ATH was £1.07 recently. Today we left the 70s as confidence has been restored and the FUD from shorters has been squashed. 3 days left this week to climb aboard before the train literally leaves the Creek next week!
Excellent podcast very clear current situation and future time scales.
My favourite word was ‘heavy’
Somebody please run the numbers my calculator isn’t big enough
BIGBADBOB , big and bad and skint and he doesn't hold any shares so we are ignoring him anyway lol
Told ya so!
1st HWM in double shift production already.
2nd HWM in double shift by August.
1st train on Monday, next week.
Bigbadbob79 I am not wrong! Now quit with the scaremongering and lets get back to selling coal!
BBB your wrong he says the first HWM is on double shifts now
BBB I think that comment from Adam was some time ago before its taken so long to get permits on 2nd HWM. Latest comments are 2nd shift on HWM1 in next month and HWM2 in 6-7 weeks when permits come through.
"Be all and end all is that coal will be shipped out by rail this month"
I hope that's right, but it's exactly what was being said a month ago.
You are wrong about the double shift. the CEO clearly said it's single shift, and potential double shifting will be after the 2nd HWM comes into play.
DropD -thanks for the real facts. 1st HWM is on double shift. 2nd HWM doesn't start until end June/July on single shift but will be on double shift by August. Original offtake agreement was for 22,000T washed coal per month on a 20day average market price. Integrity will now take more than that as there is a global demand for metcoal (for those new here, BEN doesn't mine thermal coal).
Coal does need to be stockpiled at port before it can be 'reclaimed' onto the collier ship but only needs to be there a few days prior. I assume it will be added as a separate batch to existing stockpiles of coal from other mines. Such colliers carry from 80KT to >200KT coal. I don't know what the delay has been this month other than originally waiting for the Railway Company to sign off the tracks as fit for purpose. Could be that it has taken 3 weeks to set up a permit schedule for the rail runs that cross Statelines and traffic. Be all and end all is that coal will be shipped out by rail this month.
Bbb - we know there was a delay in April - train provider hadn't got cars sorted out. Indications from roast visit that resolved. We take your word for it you know what 30k tons of coal looks like. We have been told that daily production now 1 hwm, 1 shift) at least sufficient for Integrity offtake contract. I think aw said 1st hwm IS starting 2nd shifts this month ie before 2nd hwm operational. There was info about original contract with Integrity and from memory discount small, price based on average of previous 20 days. You're right, we don't know latest, but given demand for product and aw negotiating strength I would say it'll be good for BEN. Met coal price now so much higher than at IPO that profit / margin will be huge.
bbb79- thanks for the realistic viewpoint - good to get a different view . I am getting rather stiff waiting for the train.
I get what you're saying Penstock, but there are some inaccuracies/glossing over in your post.
The first train was supposed to go in April. Clearly there is a delay of some sort.
No way was there 30,000te stockpiled in that video. I know what 30,000te looks like and it's a lot bigger than that heap. There was perhaps 5-10,000te visible (not saying there wasn't more off-camera or that it's a problem/issue).
The HWM is NOT double shifted at present. Adam clearly stated they will bring the 2nd HWM into service, and then later start double shifting. This doesn't make much sense to me, but that's what the CEO said.
We don't know what price has been achieved with Integrity. Given the relationship between Integrity/MBU/Ben it may not be as close to market price as we hope/imagine.
There's a lot of biased positivity on this board. It's important to consider the the other side of the coin. The continued delay makes me concerned, and there is some opacity to revenue etc which hopefully get resolved in June as you say.
Geez you guys are so fickle and nervous. If the first train loads up next week instead of this will it make any difference? No, just means BEN gets paid profits a week later. There was already nearly 30KT stockpiled washed coal at the site during the recent Roasters trip ready to be transferred by conveyor to the coal chute. The Creek is extracting coal every day on a double shift and washing it so that once the first train of 100 cars has been loaded and taken to integrity another empty train can come in and fill up. 100 hopper cars x 100T = 10,000Tonnes of washed HiVolB metcoal @ >$400pT = >$4m revenue per shipment. The MHW will be extracting 80,000T ROM = 40KT processed/washed metcoal per month. So 4 trains x $4m = $16m per month revenue. Now OK, that is revenue not profits, so take out costs at about 50% leaving $8m profits per month. June results will just show revenue since October and that costs are covered but no profit yet. A 7 month young start-up mining company with all costs covered, a cashflow and about to start making profit with the first HWM. I've looked at other existing mine and new mine companies but none have achieved this stage in the first year.
Roll on August with the second HWM already in production and being ramped up to double shift. Add in the deep mining rig extracting HiVolA metcoal. This will all >double June profits so looking at >$16m profits per month as of August? So August 2022-August 2023 looking at $192m profits = £156m annual profits! That is just with existing acreage and plant infrastructure. No doubt Adam will acquire more mine sites and more equipment to grow the business over the next 12 months as he has done already.
Using very low P/E of 6 gives £936m
354m shares
Based on that profit forecast = £2.64 sp valuation.
Now I am bound to have messed up the calculation somewhere or used too low a P/E but am sure you experienced folk can correct it as I know my prediction is erred on the side of caution and lower than your own forecasts may predict. As for this year I personally am just aiming to get above £1.55 and I'll be happy.
Adam has said that once we make £35.4m profits we will get 10p dividends. So if you bought at IPO you in effect get your money back.
I must admit the dip last week had me bit concerned as I had to scramble to sell other stocks in order to release funds to top up with BEN. I don't understand today's dip but would seem that it is just the scaremongering about the train date that is causing loose hands. We are certain the train is loading up this month, albeit a little delayed. I am envious of anyone with funds to top up today but well done if you have done so. This may well be the last day of the 70s but still got a couple of hours, change of sentiment, appreciation that the train IS booked and 4p to go.. Maybe those VAST day traders will pop back just in time before the train leaves, or should I say arrives.