The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Confident update on H1 today by BEG, and Equity Development retains FY forecasts and its Fair Value of 165p / share .
New note and audio summary here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/trading-update-on-progress-across-all-divisions
Last trading update was on 20 May. The half year last year was on 18 November so I guess it will be this week, perhaps even tomorrow.
With news, we can all get our slide rules out.
Due?
With the prospect of the Bank of England nudging interest rates up a fraction as early as December coupled with its effect on the “bounce back” loan scheme for the most fragile enterprises, I get the feeling that the smart money has already bought shares in BEG and that the next 12 months should benefit shareholders with a gradual but sustained uplift in the share price.
It seems that broker opinion has a target 170p. Works for me.
If it is of any help, I bought as a hedge against inflation T44 index linked gilts. Yes, the return is terrible, but as inflation rises, so there should be capital appreciation.
There does not seem to be any long term strategy from either US, EU or UK in managing the return to normality following the economic chaos consequent in coping with a pandemic. October can be a trigger month - 1929 Wall Street Crash, 1987 Black Tuesday, 1997 Asian Financial Crash and although Lehmans failed in September 2008, world markets spiralled down throughout October.
The year began with such optimism with a change of Government in USA, approval for vaccine(s) for a coronavirus that has crippled economies and the glimmers of a resumption to our normal lives. Most recently, though the prospect for inflation or worse, stagflation competes with climate change for attention. Media is having a feeding frenzy but sensational news headlines don't provide solution.
Daily movements are pretty meaningless for investors that seek returns over years. I fall into such category and provided that I beat the market, then I am content. My long term average return has gradually improved and is now at 13.65%. This is calculated over the last 42 years.
Bull runs tend to last far longer than bear ones - the bear markets tend to be harsh but seldom last longer than 18 months.
with inflation rising and current govt policy of increasing labour costs and no immigration policy what soever i can only see more and more businesses coming under deep financial stress leading to increased demand for begbies services .
and yet here we are with the share price under pressure again makes no sense to me ???
Nice slight of hand given the figures .... if they can hold on to the associated staff and retain their ongoing business/ prevent their departure and re-establishment of a local competitive force.
Of course it was serious. The comments made by YOUR reference to Equity Development shortly after the RNS for the AGM was published coupled with the post by what I infer to be representative of that research company earlier in the day suggest to me that a prepared statement had been released. Statements can change between release and presentation so although in the last 42 years, I have made many investing mistakes including attributing credence to companies that provide research, I do prefer these days to dip a toe in to a new holding before I throw a decent chunk into the ring.
Equity Development remain a company that is unfamiliar to me.
What exactly is your point?
Agreed 100%, impossible to have a commentary on a report without the report coming first.
Your post was serious?
the rise today, I suspect was more due to statement made at the AGM than Equity Development (I have not heard about that company before) opinion.
I was about to sell some into this rise but have decided to hold for the time being.
Equity Development have a forecast of 165p, this in my opinion quite conservative. Many businesses have been propped up by government loans and will require Begbies services in the near future. Plus any future acquisitions should see the share price increase. Not impossible for 200p to be revisited over the next few months.
Surely it's time will come. Got to be a few companies waiting to go to the wall after being propped up with free money and now energy prices, inflation starting to kick in on top of debt
Trading during the first quarter (May to July 2021) was in line with expectations. BEG remains on track to achieve our revenue and adjusted profit forecasts, which are unchanged. As anticipated, the components of forecast double-digit percentage growth in revenue and profits this year are internally driven, rather than market related: specifically recent acquisitions and the bounce back from 2020’s lockdowns.
The two business and financial recovery acquisitions completed last year, CVR Global (January 2021) and David Rubin & Partners (March 2021) and another, MAF Finance Group (May 2021) post the year-end are all performing well. BEG reported successful integrations, identification of synergies and cross selling opportunities.
We have held our forecasts and 165p/share fair value estimate, equivalent to a 17.9x FY22e PER and a 1.9% prospective yield (2.9x covered by adjusted earnings).
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/agm-statement-and-trading-update-in-line
Worth a swing trade around this price sell 145-150. Higher highs and lower lows and all that voodoo.
nothing i can see but it does seem to stumble every time it gets in the 140s
only some decent results will stop that happening .
Any reason for SP weakness today?
undercapitalised will bring any business down
My late father-in-law was the European Sales and Marketing Director for IBM in the 80's and made the most interesting observation that resonated with me.
Most companies go bust with a full order book.
Suggests to me that these wer viable enterprises but either under capitalised or had dreadful cashflow. Rich pickings for BEG if such factor remains true today.
many zombie companies will hang on through the xmas period in a last ditch attempt to stay afloat but reality will have to be accepted in the early months of the new year.
having been a small retail trader most of my working life i do feel sorry for them.
With the furlough scheme set to close over the next few months, I am rather expecting zombie businesses to hobble on through to Christmas and perhaps into the New Year before beginning to curl up their toes and seek either re-structure or insolvency. Hence I have bought a few shares today for elder son in his ISA.
The return to real world conditions is growing daily and with that, the prospect that any rise in interest rates will be the straw to break a camel for some enterprises.
after strong FY21 results analysts at Equity Development still expect material earnings growth in coming years.
Insolvency volumes can drive growth as govnt support gradually withdraws: ED keeps its FY22e forecast and 165p/share fair value intact.
You can hear the summary or read new research note here:
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/acquisitions-underpin-outlook-in-recovering-markets
Good article in investors chronicle website and recommendation as a BUY
"...results ahead of original expectations due to acquisitions and improved trading." In truth a little underwhelming, but free cash flow remains strong. The acquisitions have bedded in nicely, giving us a greater range of abilities. Steady as she goes!
Final due this Tuesday, 20 July.
been a busy year for BEG with acquisitions, a placing and strong shares rerating.
If you missed recent Equity Dev Webinar with Exec Chairman & Group FD - dont worry !
Video recording of Equity Dev presentation and investor Q&A is right here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/webinar-presentation-by-executive-chairman-and-group-fd