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Never really got into VBasic, just found VBasic for Dummies (2008), which I read but never really got my head around it. I should really have studied it in more detail, but always too busy. Definitely have to read it again, do examples etc.
The problem is I first used Pascal then Turbo Pascal, now Delphi (but don't use it) which, Imho is massively superior, but everything originally in Excel, which meant easier to work with VBasic than convert everything to Delphi.
I input last weeks numbers, which is confirming my idea of increase in Builders Sp's generally until GE then big increase.
Based on 04/01/19 Rel Price = 100, now Last Fri, this Fri, inc/dec:
bdev 132.3, 137.6, 5.3%, rdw 120.8, 129.6, 8.8%, bwy 120.9, 125.8, 4.9%, psn 117.5, 123.5, 6.0%, tw 120.0, 122.9, 2.9%, tw strange no dips in price!
End of play today:
bdev + 0.5% = 5.8%, rdw 0.9% = 9.7%, bwy 0.3% =5.2%, psn 1.4% = 7.4%, tw 1.2% = 4.1%. This probably represents current sentiment, But high price bdev 26/07/19 139.7, now (Last Fri) 137.6 = -3.1%. Based on same dates:
rdw 114.8 now 129.6 = +14.8%, bwy 114.6, 125.8 = +11.2%, psn 104.4, 123.5 = 19,1%, tw 124.3, 122.9 = -1.4%.
Or to put it another way, I see no justification for bdev comparative decrease in price and given tw poor IntRes and psn not great MStat1 (and tw MStat1), I think bdev is considerably undervalued now. Much too late to do all these calcs, and probably many mistakes.
Political trend looking good, absolutely no chance of Corbyn getting in, so left with BoJo or some sort of Alliance which will both be better (in terms of Sp's) than the current situation.
I remember using VBA in my second favourite job - PC support at Clarks shoes in about 1994. Developed some excel spreadsheets for users who helped me with the support. Quite intuitive from memory unlike the pure object orientated - did not get on particularly well with that.
Fencing was incredibly hard physical work, especially working with concrete posts. I did not do it to take short cuts. A lot of people think it is an easy job but in many ways more mentally challenging than programming.
Another reasonable day for BDEV but very bad for AV., another of my overweight shares.
When I worked for Geo Wimpey the price for digging a back garden fence post hole was about 3 hours. Hand excavation, concrete. waiting for it to set then attaching 3 wire strands. The Gen labourers just wacked the post in with a sledge hammer so made a lot on fence posts. Only trouble was they usually forgot to claim them all!
When this was pointed out to Chief Cost & Bonus Surveyor he said if they don't do things according to the plans, then it is our job to pay them less?
I finished in Nov 1998 after last 10 years as a contractor, CICS and DL1, never used IDMS. Worked for 10 years in Building as a Quantity Surveyor before being made redundant by Maggie in 1980.
Do you know VBasic?
Just posted this on rdw board:
"Rdw has just overtaken bdev in Sp at 637 for first time since 03/05/19 (rdw 591).
Means nothing at all except bdev underperforming recently rather than rdw doing particularly well.
Now is the question of style, do you invest in bdev (cos undervalued) or rdw (cos got the momentum)? ..."
Bdev up 4.0% for week, rdw up 7.3%.
Or from 2019 Rel Price graph 04/01/19 = 100
On 03/05/19 tw 129.3, bdev 125.3, rdw 118.2, bwy 116.7, psn 109.1
On 08/11/19 bdev 132.3, bwy 120.9, rdw 120.8, tw 120.0, psn 117.5
Rel Strength graph interesting, basically you invest on +ve gradient and avoid -ve gradient. Really highlights psn problems, dropped from 104.6 (22/02/19) to 90.8 (08/03/19), but couldn't really anticipate that (Politics / Media).
Just about to input closing prices for week now.
Now there's a coincidence but not really that much of a surprise to me to be honest.
legacy programmer PL1/IDMS, COBOL/IDMS. Finished in 2007 after 7 years as a contract AP at Jaguar Cars, Coventry.
I quit the office, bought a Cabstar truck and put fences up for over 4 years.
Interesting day on the market and BDEV share price. Possibility of a 3% swing.
I still have 50% float in cash but intend to be fully invested before GE. Can't see bdev going below 600, but a gradual (if jumpy) increase until GE. So need to get investment plan sorted.
I was an IBM Cobol Prog/Analyst, never used Basic since about 1983 and my code is terrible (don't use Objects, Files...) but it works well.
Appreciate the information Nige.
Thanks for explaining what has worked for you and hopefully it will continue to do so.
I do a bit with Excel and was a programmer in a previous life so will do some research on the top five builders.
A bit reticent to buy at the moment as usually wait for a contrarian trigger. Will buy 3rd tranche back in BDEV if she drops below £6 but could be a bit of a wait. Resisting market pressure well at the moment.
Major price movements happen after release of RNS's (besides Media / Politics - can't do anything about that).
Best explained by a simple example.
Bdev Year End June so FinRes about Aug, tw Dec, FinRes Feb.
Say bdev Sp increases 20% after FinRes and then Flat lines til next FinRes and tw the same (but in Feb), then invest in Bdev before FinRes, sell after making 20%, buy tw before FinRes and sell after making 20%. You have made 40%, and only been invested for about 3 months or so.
Obviously an oversimplification but makes my point.
The way to do this is make a table of relative SP's for each week for each year with Sp 100 on say 1st Friday (04/01/19), bdev Sp 474, so Rel Price 474 / 474 * 100 = 100
Then 11/01/19 bdev Sp 503, so Rel Price 503 / 474 * 100 = 106.1.
Repeat this calc for all weeks and all Coys (suggest no more than 5 Coys - gets too complicated).
Print graph down and mark on it RNS dates, and you can see surges / slumps created by the RNS's.
Using this method I think you can make 20% more than LTBH, and this doesn't even include Divis.
You can also calc Relative Strengths. Calc Average price for each week (Tot / 5) then RelSt = RelPrc - Av for week + 100.
From the table you can calc best times to buy / sell for each Coy, usually 4 buys / sells per year for each company, but some so much better than others, many can be ignored (so less than 40 deals per year, more like 30).
I have 50% Port in Base Value and 50% in Float
My system is written in VBasic and Excel and updates everything automatically. Hope you know Excel!
Certainly wouldn't want to be short on any builder after GE
The price range of bdev 65% over year, is far greater than it would have been if No Brexit, so hopefully when that is out of the way, Sp's will settle at a much higher level. The graph should not only tell you when to buy / sell bdev, but also all the other Coys. In the process of getting RelSt working for LSE then 2000 Table.
I am interested to hear that you have found a way of shuffling money within the sector to profit. From my limited appraisal of the it does seem that the prices move together or at least the movements sufficient to create marginal profit within the sector seem scarce. I'm going to spend more time looking at this, thank you.
Charts can teach us a lot but they miss out on the big events that really make a difference. On that basis I would be suspicious of hanging my hat on their reliability. Bdev had a 12 month price range of 430 - 702 = 65%. Huge money to be made buying and selling at the right time just within this small time period. I wonder how much of that and the correct timing was correlated to any chart.
The main issue for me with shorting aside from the very idea is the leveraged nature and compromising of PIs involved. I think people see the big companies shorting and consider they can do the same. Given the extra margins, charges and conditions PIs have to contend with I expect it is hard to consistently come out on top. Also surprises me how many shorters expect holders to put up with their negative comments on a share. Most that I have encountered are not subtle and quickly annoy the locals for good reason. Hopefully Liam will be an exception.
Unfortunately I have seen a lot of failure in the Stock Market. Safe bets like Banks, British Energy , Railtrack and Marconi disappearing. Recent heavy lossed on British Telecom, Centrica and Royal bloody Mail, etc. Who would have thought that banks could go bust? I had most of my savings in the Icelandic banks when they broke. Initially thought I had lost everything; now that is a life experience. My point is that anything can happen and in the recent past probably has but companies with cash and land are far less vulnerable. As you say lessons learnt with BDEV moving away from debt and into assets. From more than £8 to less than 80p and a way to go back up yet.
Talk of new build quality issues does not surprise me. To be honest If I were to judge building companies on my standards with regards to building I would not be invested.
Think I sent that by accident
Anyway … Trading / ISA accounts.
BTW I said my ideas based on buying before RNS's but this doesn't really matter, what is more important is relative strength movements. Could say this is no more than a reflection of relative price (and RNS's), but also highlights exceptional ideas (such as psn quality issues unveiled by Politicians and the media).
I think that by recording all prices everyday, you get a feel for the coys, even if my brother showed me how to update this automatically. I can look at bdev and usually predict the Sp movement for the rest, so what is unusual is if one differs from my guess - then find out why.
For example psn had little to do with the more volatile Sp of bdev - made me think far more long termers there than bdev or tw. This has totally changed since quality issues, but now improving quickly (no doubt as PI's replaced by big Orgs).
Doesn't really matter too much whichever you invest in, cos all massively undervalued, but I would say invest in all 5 to insulate yourself from a disaster, and why invest anywhere else?
So much better to be polite and costs nothing, so I look forward to a reply particularly about what you think of my system.
Thanks for your reply autobits
I have data going back to 2000 (but only done charts for 2013 and after). Will do a chart for 2006 onwards (Relative Price and Relative Strength) which shows the Banking crisis in detail. At that time psn and bwy hardly affected by the crisis cos had loads of cash, while tw and bdev had Big debts and almost went bust. They had to keep on building to pay off the debt, but since it was almost impossible to get a mortgage then, they couldn't even sell what they built. Proves the point of Supply / Demand and why a large amount of debt is never good.
Since then tw and bdev have learnt the lesson and now have Cash.
The contrarian point of view is interesting, basically the opposite of momentum. Don't know enough about Chartists ideas to pass comment, but Liam seems to believe in them totally. I think this is a mistake cos whatever happens in the GE will have a big effect on Builders Sp's (one way or another), regardless of double tops, nooses...
My idea is simple, find Coys which can't go bust (large amounts of cash, high margins and now big Divis), ie Builders. The big 3 could just stop Building for years, and wait for the margins to return. These things are the idea of Warren Buffet's Value shares, which he says will (eventually) be realised.
I seriously believe bdev could be 1000+, about 3 months after No Brexit declared, they are worth that now regardless of Brexit, (cos will have no effect on Builders). That is simply based on return to (undervalued) PreBrexit Per's.
As I said if bdev had grg's Per Sp would be about 1800 now.
I don't do shorts either. It started off with farmers in US guaranteeing the price of their harvests, so if the price of corn decreased they got the price the today, but only had to pay the price when the harvest was gathered. So sell 100 acres of corn at $100 per acre = $10,000. Due to a glut price of corn the price goes down to $50 per acre, so only worth $5,000, but you have already got $10,000, so am I bovvered. The opposite is also true. If the price goes up to $200 per acre (cos of corn beetle destroying crops), you have $10,000 but your crop is worth $20,000. Still not bovvered cos happy with $10,000.
The point is somebody has to agree to buy your harvest at $100 per acre (ie corn Sp $100), so shouldn't really make much difference. Maybe the buyer has the problem and needs to sell some real shares in corn to cover the cost of his promise to me, thereby bringing the Sp down.
The opposite is going long ie buying at todays price $100 = 100 shares in corn, and picking up the price on harvest $200 for the shares I bought at $100, now worth $20,000 which only cost me $10,000. Don't know how to do that, but right now I would be long on all builders!
OK for US farmers, but a rather desperate measure for ordinary investors. You can lose the lot (or quickly make a fortune). Personally I'm not too bovvered. Even if I had no pension I could live off Divis (but all left in Trading / Isa a
Thank you for your post, I appreciate it.
LSE only shows 5 year charts. I have just gone over to iii to see a historic price chart for BDEV that goes back a lot farther. I remember the days of £8 in 2005/6. I am sure holders at the time would remember only too well.
You definitely chose the right time to invest and a great sector to stay loyal to. I played around with mining companies before my first purchase in BDEV(June 2016) but since then done quite well with contrarian purchases that have proved timely. Technically over invested in this share/sector for most of the period since and no apology. As you point out the land bank and cash underpin this company in addition to it being in a sector that should never really crash. The way sentiment works does however make us question even the most solid investments and given previous experience, that is exactly the time to purchase.
Not interested in shorting but recognise it as a useful tool to make money if you have the brutish nature required. Liam coming on this forum is interesting and although it does not feel right I suppose a shorter making money seemingly the expense of holders is some positive out of a pure negative. I don't agree with his chart prediction though. The share may well drop to below £6 but below £5 will take the index to drop to <6500 in my opinion.
May your investments and judgement be kind to you.
I am invested in all 3, also bwy and rdw and have been for the last 7 years.
During this time attitudes have changed a lot and so relative prices. The best way to compare them over time is to watch how Per varies, lowest least popular, highest most popular.
The key issues recently have been Brexit, psn (and to a lesser extent tw) quality issues and bdev's lack of them. This has driven bdev Sp up more this year than the others with a justifiably higher Per, but psn and tw catching up again. Imho bwy and rdw have been (unjustifiably) heavily hit by Brexit (cos they hold least cash and so more vulnerable to expected slump).
So bdev safe and solid (and relatively cheap now), psn and tw improving more quickly (issues successfully resolved or forgotten?), but probably best value is bwy and rdw, cos regardless of what happens I don't think there will be a slump.
Some numbers which might illustrate that, assuming Sp 04/01/19 = 100:
bdev now 132, bwy 121, rdw121, tw 120, psn 117
But 3 weeks after bdev excellent PreFin results (10/07/19) on 26/07/19:
bdev 140, tw 124, bwy 115, rdw 115, psn 104
and low point of psn 16/08/19 quality issues 92 which coincides with low point of tw 103 after poor IntRes.
So you can see how bdev Sp has risen far less that the others since 26/07/19.
Having said all that, the above is not the basis of my system.
I hold a base value in the 5 companies and a float that I move between them depending on upcoming RNS's. This way you always hold your original shares (now my PL on base shares is over 60%). Just need to decide if RNS's will be good or bad, and I have a planner where I can vary investment amounts and it recalcs itself to show the PL over the year. Plan based on 2017 (less affected by Brexit which has messed up my system!)
So I study Builders in detail (cos lowest Per's), which I think is better than Dart Board method (Greggs going well now - think I'll invest there, but if bdev had grgs Per Sp would be about 1800).
Hope this makes sense and BoL
Putting the peurile/infantile aside for a moment...................
I have been watching the market moving the share prices around on Barratt, Persimmon and TW. Only invested in Barratt at the moment but I imagine you are more aware of the comparison as probably invested in all three. It seems that the market prefers Persimmon with Barratt in the middle and TW in last place. This is judged by relative movements up and down. What is your opinion?
Your trading of insults with autobits is puerile, and so is his response. Do you derive pleasure out of insulting people, or are you hoping he will be offended?
It is possible to have a reasonable discussion with anyone (even if you don't agree with them), as I have with Liam. Trev a non starter for me cos he never justifies any of his statements.
So please could you both stop this, so hopefully we can learn from each other, after all that is the purpose of these boards.
autocopy (see what I just did). To be really funny, you've got to be original. But I've clearly got under your skin.