Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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and for every £77.50 bcn put in to do that... ganfeng would need to put in £22.50... to maintain the 77.5% : 22.5% ownership...
they synchronised to do it in the first place... maybe they’ll synchronise again... as an accountable method to transfer some of the funding already raised by bcn... from the plc... into the project ltd co / subsidiary...
LoL @tomcat. I suppose it's possible that they meant to say: "The valuation of any additional investment in the Project Level Company by GFL would be based on the share price of Bacanora [and number of shares in issue] at the time of the additional purchase." i.e. the market cap. Maybe the "[and number of shares in issues]" is so obviously implied that they felt it wasn't worth mentioning?
Has anyone got further information relating to this? Perhaps it was clarified at the AGM?
1(25) : 2(50) : 3(75)... that’s 6 x 25 (150ktpa) total by the way... by 2025...
as i said before... last time you reminded us of that... i’m not sure how the tax man would view that valuation... it works if the shares in issue are equal... but not when they’re not...
Second attempt...
£76m * 27.5% / 77.5% = £27m
Never trust anything I write without checking it. LoL :-)
There are multiple ways to look at it. How about this for one? If BCN is valued on Sonora alone then with a market cap of £76m that makes the additional 27.5% of the SLL currently worth:
£76m * 27.5% / 72.5% = £15m
I suspect the market cap will be multiples of this when the time comes. However, the price they pay is stated to be based on the share price not the market cap: "The valuation of any additional investment in the Project Level Company by GFL would be based on the share price of Bacanora at the time of the additional purchase." so an increasing share price is more important than an increasing market cap if this sale is to help fund BCN's share of the CapEx.
is 1(25) : 2(50) : 3(75)... in 3years doable?... 4years maybe... 5 tops... by 2025...
having seen how ganfeng injected $160m cash into olaroz... taking their project level ownership there up from 37.5% to 50%... i’ve never considered them not doing a similar purchase to fund sonora... (i’ve not yet worked out the premium bcn : sll... since m&g bought in to 19.9%... bcn mcap now £76m)...
Here's food for thought @tomcat. What if the agreement with Ganfeng has always been in anticipation of them taking their JV holding to 50% in return for them reducing CapEx per tonne of production of a 35ktpa plant which rapidly increases to 70ktpa. Sounds like a great win-win scenario if so for both companies. From BCN's point of view they may well have sold half of their share of the Sonora Lithium project but in return for an unchanging, perhaps even an increased NPV on what remains?
I like it :-)
bringing in another cornerstone investor for that amount... i can reasonably see that happening too...
who can it be now...
i can reasonably see the final funding... being 500m shares at 25p... to raise $125m... for a 25/50ktpa project... with ganfeng topping up their project level investment to 50%... to fill any funding gap... to pay for the 25/50ktpa value engineered solution... worst case scenario of course...
Indeed @tomcat. And then there is this news:
"Tesla Gigafactory 4 Third Phase - 750,000 Car Capacity" (December 14th, 2019)
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/14/tesla-gigafactory-4-third-phase-750000-car-capacity/
Now that's a lot of lithium! Join the dots time? Tesla have a supply agreement with Ganfeng. Ganfeng have a target ownership of BCN of 29.9%. BCN have an option to take their ownership from 50% to 100% of Zinnwald (until February 2020). Zinnwald is close to Tesla plant (in the grand scheme of things).
I'm not exactly sure what's going to trigger the re-rate back towards (and over!) a pound, but I feel it coming :-) But. It is possible there is one more corner to the stone to be completed @25p first. However, the cornerstone investors won't be selling any time soon so it really shouldn't matter to the market at what price they are let in at. Admittedly if 25p has been agreed the share price will very likely head back down in that direction by hook or crook IMHO, unless an outsiders decides they want in, and in volume on market, scuppering plans.
Question is: is the future fortunes of BCN built on a triangular or rectangular foundation?
What do you reckon @tomcat?
so even if sonora was upped to 25ktpa stage 1 pilot plant... with another 25ktpa stage 2 added (50ktpa) by 2025... that’s only 2 out of the 25 needed...
when will thoughts start shifting to the location and size of the next mine and lithium plant(s) on sonora... producing top quality battery grade lithium for under $4,000/t...
from page 3 of the dec presentation... at 14% cagr... the incremental growth in lithium demand represents 25 new lithium mines of average size 25ktpa to 2025... 625ktpa new capacity built by 2025... that’s 5 x 25ktpa mines (av 125ktpa) per year... which is quite a conservative estimate with demand for battery grade lce needed by 2025 being closer to 1mtpa... than it is 500ktpa...
Of the total measured and indicated Sonora reserves of 5,038kt LCE:
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/projects/sonora-lithium/
I make the current distribution (Ganfeng @22.5%) as:
KDNC: 919kt (18.2%)
Ganfeng: 926.8kt (18.4%)
BCN: 3,192.2kt (63.4%)
and if Ganfeng were to increase to 50% this would be:
KDNC: 919kt (18%)
Ganfeng: 2059.5kt (41%)
BCN: 2059.5kt (41%)
Unless/until the mine life is defined beyond 19 years or the mining rate is increased beyond the current target rate of 35ktpa KDNC's share is pretty much inconsequential as the vast majority of the initial 19 year life of mine @ up to 35ktpa comes from the BCN/Ganfeng Joint Venture area.
I'm confident the mining rate will be increased beyond 35ktpa and the life of mine defined beyond 19 years: Sonora is very cheap and scaleable. By stalling, Secker might just have played an (accidental IMHO!) blinder waiting for the market demand to catch up, and with future demand increasingly being recognised by mainstream outlets a re-rate is on the cards around the time of full funding IMHO. 35ktpa will seem a tiddler and ridiculously small if/when we see plans for 50-100ktpa plant(s).
Ob
I really think this is going to be monstrous a little more patience me thinks. Sonora now the biggest lithium deposit in the world and one of the lower productivity cost per ton. It’s just a matter of time