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Just had a look and it looks like they can only get to 70% ish with the top 10 institutional investors and there own stake, so they may need our support to get to the compulsory purchase level.
By the looks of support here it won't go through unless they revise up by quite a bit.
I can't see the bidder getting enough shares at 67p, it's likely to be revised upwards if they can't get to the compulsory purchase percentage.
It seems that they don't want to make the bid official just yet so they have to keep there stake at 30% or less this stops them buying in the market, so as soon as the bid is official they will be buying all the shares in the market they need to get above the compulsory purchase percentage which I think is 90% or there abouts.
If the bidder gets above 30% they are legally bound to make a bid.
Personally I think they are probably trying to get the large institutional investors to promise there support to get close to the 90% compulsory purchase level.
I can't see the bidder getting enough shares at 67p, it's likely to be revised upwards if they can't get to the compulsory purchase percentage.
It seems that they don't want to make the bid official just yet so they have to keep there stake at 30% or less this stops them buying in the market, so as soon as the bid is official they will be buying all the shares in the market they need to get above the compulsory purchase percentage which I think is 90% or there abouts.
If the bidder gets above 30% they are legally bound to make a bid.
Personally I think they are probably trying to get the large institutional investors to promise there support to get close to the 90% compulsory purchase level.
I’m reluctantly resigned to circa 70-30 prob 75-25 goes through one way or the other but 50-50 it goes through in current format.
For me the stoppers will be
1 - m&g but that might be simply about price no way they are near as emotional as us!
2 - regulatory approval doesn’t get there (arguably best chance to Block it right now)
3 - somehow we’ve miscounted all the share capital from pis and gets blocked
4 - knight or someone else comes in to command a blocking stake (whether from m&g but prob seen accumulation by now)
5 - if could get enough shareholders to vote the board out but hugely unlikely given can call meeting but amount votes needed to pass will struggle.
I hope the board got the messages from pi”s, I do hope m&g at least has some fight in them.
We are really now looking at a higher price with spin off re znwd as the kicker. That to me seems the most logical, they have no need for znwd (unless agreed to sell stake already).
If close that feels the logical solution. As said previously ganfeng can try be petulant etc, but that’s when they can open themselves up to another player who could in turn drive them out.
Their best solution they lock this down, pay up and turf out znwd.
Abbas this isn’t some asset owned by m&g assets or their own money, this is held with their sterling recovery fund. Not an asset held on m&g balance sheet, I’m pretty sure this external client money for this dedicated fund.
As said previously it’s not even their top 5 holdings it’s a 1.2bn fund so this is what 25-30mn position for them, even if said 30mn sub 3% holding of the fund, which is Still material none the less. They are having their best year in 5 and looks like 12% return ytd. If they are being offered 67.5p v 55p another 20% return on 3% of their fund is quite material. I’d like to think they would push for higher and turn down the offer, but got to have strong conviction they push past at least 75p before year end.
Abbas I understand your point about Hanwa but what are you implying about M&G, given that any financial incentive given to M&G would also have to be given to all shareholders?
M&G are a very highly regulated UK Financial Services company. I do not believe that they would risk their position by entering into any underhand or undeclared deals.
As it seems that Gang have offered lucrative incentives to our chief (away from the share) to make them so giddy to accept 60 odd pence. Is it possible that the power of the Chinese state could also pressure/incentivise m and g aswell as Hanwa so they don't object.
As in don't pipe up or future business in China will be affected, in which case all hope is lost.
Trying to see the worst case scenario and wake up one day with. A pleasant surprise.
sorry for the typo, foz not fiz! Yes, we've pretty much talked it through until we get any more meaningful RNSs
Yep put up or shut up by 3rd for the panel, unless both parties agree to extend. Discussions will be going on now with m and g as they are critical and others. Hopefully our emails have been heard, and agree one way save face is with znwd spun off (plus let’s be clear they then have to get approval and I expect German govt might step in). So it’s not hard for them to do it.
Personally I think we are all so deflated, if you said they should have done placement at 55p and avg out the 3m accordingly I come out out about 85p. So if get there and spin znwd off it prob is just about enough as painful as it’s all been.
Agree on all of that Fiz
We wont get a vote until there is a bid, and that must be kicked off by GF by June 3rd unless there is agreement to extend that date? I also expect the larger shareholders have been contacted. Also had crossed my mind that maybe BCNs assets may be split with GF getting just Sonora and znwd staying in the rump of BCN. That would seem a way of maybe avoiding a deadlock with no one losing face?
Yes bluegrass, simply that. If Ganfeng are serious about this I don't think M&G will block the deal, they will simply look for a higher offer for their vote. If M&G are eventually persuaded to vote for than its hard to see the bid being defeated. Ganfeng want control
Hi bluegrass, I’m no specialist to call an egm requires 5% or 10% if had an agm in last 12 months. Special shareholders has to be directors or in bylaws or 5% shareholders.
Thing is the more time this goes on the less time we have to mobilise, I mean it’s a bit ridiculous that we’ve not heard more but they do have till 3rd June.
Again I’m no specialist but my best understanding we won’t get a vote till post that? I also don’t know what changes there are nowadays with covid. I also thought was 2-3 weeks time gap when could call an egm and were rapidly going past that.
I expect there’s discussions going on with key shareholders, hopefully the amount of pi complaints might have put a spanner in works.
Ideal scenario they are coming up with a better proposal as m and g said no.
Otherwise I’d assume they are waiting on ganfeng approvals and to force it through.
Ideally I’d like a new bcn spun off with znwd stake in it, cash to help znwd and then £1 a share. But I’m dreaming.
Most companies respond to m and a bid accordingly but as the board has provisionally accepted this, then it has to go to shareholders - but I don’t think as it’s an intention rather than formal we are at that stage yet.
Sorry I am probably being stupid, but I can't really follow your logic on this. Can you please explain your thoughts in more detail. Really not sure what you are actually saying. Did you simply mean that Garfeng will probably get control even if you voted against deal or was it something more than this.
BCN the company not surviving as a (quioted) company, not the Sonora as a mine. I suppose there may be reason that they keep Bacanora as a 100% owned subsidiary but that isn't going to benefit us
Don't know where you get the bit about BCN not surviving from. Garfeng know it's an attractive business that is why they are trying to acquire it. So can see no reason why the project will not continue. Don't think this is an emotional decision for them. They just sense weakness and an opportunity. Garfeng are involved in other joint ventures, but don't always try to buy out other party. Probably agree that M&G are key.
Fozdog. Appreciate that you are more knowledge on these matters than me, so it might be useful recapping on what private investors can do, lobbying, 5% for share holder meeting and voting etc. One thing I am interested to know is that once it is decided to put the matter to a formal vote is there a statutory time period that is given to vote in. BCN rushed through the recent discounted placing so quickly many people missed it altogether. Concerned that they may employ similar tactics given the opportunity. Maybe sensible for people to check procedures with there brokers now rather than waiting.
On another note what proportion of PI's do you think read this bullet board? I assume a lot more people read it than post.
Yep can’t disagree, it hinges on m&g. Lobbying them to reject as we are all looking for a higher price is what matters. Do wish this didn’t take so long, but that’s nature of companies we are dealing with.
Yes it will trade at a discount, but not as large as at present.
I think M&G is more likely to force a renegotiation (ie above 67.5p) as the price of their agreement rather than block the sale. That wouldn't be true of Hanwa, but their holding isn't large enough to make the difference.
If GF are really serious about this then, despite my intention to vote against, I don't see BCN surviving.
Tbh I don’t think the weak market makes any difference. Imo the overriding factor remains m&g, always got to remember whilst 15% big to us the size of position in fund is prob relatively small. I’d be surprised they would cut themselves out here if I’m honest but also didn’t take up further interest prior.
The issue with this all of it does go through at 67.5p I’m assuming you can trade the shares during that period? Which for me means it’s always going to trade at a discount. Just another reason to vote this down and request a better deal.
I haven't those stats, but in a market as weak as this is/ is threatening to be at the moment I would have thought that the chance of the bid succeeding (at the current proposed price) increases. Any thoughts?
Iv spoken to a few U.K. m&a specialists about deal successes, when board recommend something it’s in the 90 percentile of going through. Without knowing bcn said to me if at that much of a discount pricing in high and most likely regulatory chance doesn’t go through.
Again all speculation but all same makes sense to me.
Not really, I think anyone with half of a brain knows this forum cannot move a stock like BCN lol
So just doing a bit of de-ramping with intent of getting back in?
John, yes I did, all out at 58
45 or 42? I thought you had sold out on 6th May wildtiger?
So many signs that the deal wont go through with Gafeng, which means this will return to 42 after the news