Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Spot on
You have sort of answered ur own question @Prophet - because Ganfeng have mounted a creeping takeover of the company.
Albermarle , posssibly, in the Li space ? Otherwise Rio, Glen, one of the big multi asset guys, but if they did come in, would they have to re-do all Ganfeng's design work (that we haven't seen yet), could Ganfeng effectively block any approach ?
I think the share price is under true value because of an engineered placing that was too low, and was then bought into by ii's who then engineered to sell at a loss, to keep the price below placing ,so that Ganfeng could offer low.
I think Ganfeng have taken on the 'engineering design' for this project :(
If Bacanora is worth significantly more to another potential bidder than the current mkt cap of £188m, then presumably they will approach the board and/or make a public offer. The board (esp. the independent directors) would have a legal duty to consider any alternative offer, and the fact that the company is now 'in play' may encourage a bidder to emerge. Unfortunately, Gangfeng are in a very strong position, having effectively mounted a creeping takeover of the company, which would certainly discourage any potential rivals.
To those who believe that the current share price really is at a massive discount to 'true value' - why hasn't another bidder emerged previously to take advantage? Why hasn't the share price been bid up to that 'true value' level already?
@jam2morrow thanks for the response I agree with what you have said. M&G clearly hold most of the cards as far as voting it down perhaps the news will bring more interest to the project to see it achieve a higher value? Like most I was planning to hold for this to be in production and expected a 3-5x increase in SP.
@EV bull - Thacker pass would be the best comparison to Sonora. LAC Mcap is currently c £1billion. It depends how much of that Mcap u would attribute to Thacker pass but I would say at least a third more likely half. Don't forget that they still have to finance that mine. So to answer ur question i think we should have been sitting around Ganfengs offer price...... before the offer came in.
The Mexico/security issue is bought up a lot but a lot of the big car manufacturers seem to be able to run big operations there and i don't read of too many probs?
The problem here is the amount of control Ganfeng have, not only of the issued shares but also of all the engineering design work. They would always have that leverage on any offer negotiations.
Maybe their offer is an opening gambit and they have a fair price in mind. For sure they know how much value is locked up in those clays but so do Secker and the rest of the board; so why are they recommending it ?
I've made this comment before but the hindsight view here shows us that Ganfeng were the company to buy shares in when they first got their claws into us
I think some are failing to remember that investing involves risk. And the same two statements are cropping up.
1. “If 67p is guaranteed then why isn’t everyone buying” – it’s a “Possible Offer” not a done deal you are not taking in to account the risk of the deal falling through.
2. “This is a terrible deal BCN is worth way more”
Those asking #2 what do you believe the company is worth today and why is it so massively undervalued and disliked by the market?
My answer would be that there are several risks that justify a somewhat lower share price:
Jurisdiction risk – mostly political (e.g nationalisation) and crime related mexico’s reputation for cartels etc.
Project risk - construction problems or over budget
Price risk – future lithium prices are uncertain (although predicted to go higher)
Confidence in CEO to execute
Other risks
I would be interested to hear what you all believe a fair value is for buying BCN outright today (with proper reasoning taking in to account these risks) because the market had decided 45p was correct – why was the market so wrong on this?
FYI: I bought in at 44p after the raise as I thought it was a fair trade-off for the above risks given that it was fully funded.
Thank you. Will be interesting to see what happens next week and the coming one's
Nope sam. That is a common question both on here and ADVFN (which I read but don't post on). Maybe as the completion of the deal is potentially a long way off or that the market believes there is is doubt it will succeed? I did a small 25k top up myself on Thursday, doubt I will do any more despite it seeming logical to do so.
I also do not understand this. If 67p is guaranteed then why is not everyone buying at the current price and in theory making a quick profit should the deal go ahead ? Grateful if anyone can shed light ?
Clutching and straws comes to mind here ! But yes I hope it will be contested but the depressing thing is that secker and his crew seem to be making acceptance overtures !
Hope you are right my friend, don't in all honesty want this dragging on for 8 months. None of us want that. If the timescale is 4 weeks it makes the discount even more inexplicable. I need a beer.
Yes, but I for one am not expecting any alternative offer, not with GF holding half of the asset and near 30% of the BCN shares. Rejection of the offer seems an outside possibility with the help of M&G, who could alternatively force better terms in return for their support (which would of course have to be applied to all shareholders).
I think there is a lot of legal gobbledygook in the RNS about it not being an offer under section 2.7, and therefore the date of December 31st seems more applicable? If anyone has deciphered it please educate me
Thanks for reply folks
Re: John, I quote below from the RNS:
"In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 3 June 2021, Ganfeng must either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer"
So one would assume price to match the first offer amount in expectation / advance of this date. ie about 4 weeks
Isn't this a potential offer. Not an offer.
So presumably if the offer materializes the offer price might be higher?
JTS
4 weeks to close? How do you mean?
@JTS13 also no idea why SP is below the offer??? so decided to chuck some in.
I also have some shares at around 100% profit which under normal circumstances would be okay, but the overriding point here is we - ie other LTH's are being screwed over. We entered this investment for a far greater profit that this. If you have as you say been fortunate to buy some at very low entry points, then great. But this should have easily exceeded £1. The resource and the mine life is worth billions not a couple of hundred millions. If this deal goes through me and others will not feel that this ride has been very worthwhile. And as I have already said for the BOD to think this deal is okay is suspicious bordering on fraudulent !
Not significantly surprised by the takeover. This has always been cheap if potential was realised - and obviously Ganfeng were helping with the equipment planning as part of their internal thinking on whether or not this'd be worth buying outright. The math is done, the bash is in the bank and the supply chain has been identified... It's an obvious grab whilst it's cheap
Like some on here, I mostly bought for my little one. She's up 200% so won't complain... did end up putting in a little for myself and also up 100%... The bid is a low ball compared to potential long term value here, but I won't complain about the gains
What I don't get is the current share price... is there something in the terms that we're missing? SP is trading at 15% discount to an offer price that's got about 4 weeks to close. Why hasn't this jumped to 67? It's not uncommon for SP to rise fractionally OVER the first offer price on the hopes that a higher offer comes in. What're we missing? Bullish if we accept offer. Bullish if we dismiss it and ask for more. If 15% in the month were guaranteed so easily, I'd happily chuck 50 grand in here but it doesn't make sense
Thoughts?
I think it's gone way past business ventures now it's about collecting and world dominance in metals/elements doesn't seem to be much the west can or want to do about this and other projects .
Also to mention the quisling directors of BCN.
I was one of the ones that said this and unfortunately it has been proved right again, the chines will screw over any western company given the opportunity and i seems we have a board that are facilitating this !
funny how people still think theyre going to triple their investment here how many times, chinese dont share, and ganfeng and the like are a really state companies, you think CCP is going to share the lithium with you, theyre cornering the market knowing how f*cked we are going to be