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Just added at £25.50.Saved £2.00 if I'd bought before ex divi.Thats a years worth of dividends.I do like a bargain.Longest thread ever.
250% of the dividend payment drop. Its fooking ridiculous. Such manipulation.
-75 Maybe I spoke too soon :-(
Todays dip seems to be the dividend plus trading fees associated with trading , so currently no apparent gain.
With 54p dividend payable in November and again in Feb 22 I will hold out . Today's dip not unexpected.
the next 2 days trading determines what I do next quarter. wasn't able to sell today, but likely would have if i'd seen the run up this week of 70p.
Yep, same here
Out @ 2,731
Missed the top, but lets see what the drop is tomorrow
Just sold at 2739 with a tidy profit locked in.
Glad to finally get a rather large chunk of my trading funds back in the pot to play with again.
Goodluck to those holding for the divi.
My IMB have done ok trading between c£15 & £16. Have been 'in & out' twice with good quick profits.
I need 56p (now £15.44) to make my first target of £16, tho 30p more would be a nice bonus. IMB/BATS c20% of ISA p/f.
Think this week's general market will depend on more China woes re Evergrande. Spent some time today researching this as am exposed with my HSBC. But any negative news there may well result in what i term 'dog day's'; with the knock on effect on Oil & Gas/Brent. On day's as this there can often be a flight to IMB/BATS.
Capita is my (current) star performer. +35%, so far. Hopefully more to follow. Intend topping up heavilly there sub 47p.
Lets hope for a profitable week ahead
Yeah I posted similar stats about how the BP SP had failed to regain June highs despite the higher spikes in poo in July and at the moment. Of course that could also mean it’s long overdue a bounce up and I could be wrong, but I’d rather be wrong with profit in the bank! I didn’t trade BP enough this year and missed out on a lot of profits. Interestingly I traded RDSB a lot more and have already hit the profit target I set earlier this year for a buy and hold recovery price a fair bit higher than Fridays close. Nowhere near it with BP though !!
Miners scare me at current prices. Yes the valuations / PE ratios / fcf etc all stack up at the moment but only at commodity prices which were at multi year highs. As I’m sure you are aware Ríos lack of pre div rise was down to those prices retracing.
That’s what I like about BATS - profits and SP aren’t so directly linked to a commodity who’s prices are out of the companies control and can be very volatile. Yes there is the political risk as we’ve seen play out in recent weeks and isn’t over yet. An announcement from the FDA on Monday that Vuse hasn’t been approved could see this tank before Thursday and the ex div drop could be nasty.
At least that would only be one product in one country though and BATS could recover. I still think there will end up being positive news on that front though. BATS has done and provided all the research and trials the FDA were asking for, and as the panaroma program showed, BATS know how to play the game :)
"Yes I’m all out of BP and actually short on RDSB and oil at the moment. Not convinced I’ve picked the top, but a correction is due on those soon"
I posted some stats on BP board re; last time OP was @ $77 it dropped 15% to $65 with BP following on by a similar amount. Was soundly rounded on & given a good kicking for being a Heretic. They act somewhat like my grandsons Minnions charactors; either desperatly sad when SP is down & extatically happy, as just now, lol.
Just looked at my notes on BP. SP was 294.70p on 9 Sept; 11 trading day's ago. 320p now. Am pleased i've sold 2/3 & locked in some useful capital gain in my ISA. Held onto 1/3, but they willgo at 330p.....
"This nearly always drops by more than the div on ex div day, but also usually recovers within a few days/weeks to close the gap."
Same thing happened to me last week with BHP. Record profits so bumper dividend of £1.45 Expected a rally up to XD but didn't happen. SP off over £4.30 since. So, locked in there until iron ore price rises.
Am also in IMB & have decided to top slice some if SP reaches £16.30
Yes I’m all out of BP and actually short on RDSB and oil at the moment. Not convinced I’ve picked the top, but a correction is due on those soon.
Kept all of my BATS though. I’m quite surprised there hasn’t been a run up yet in the SP towards ex div as now only 3 trading days left. The delay in the FDA decision seems to be weighing on the SP. With no timescale / deadline I expect it will stay like that until they make an announcement, and then the SP will move - one way or the other. I think even if it is bad news and the SP tanks, it will recover as Vuse makes up a tiny % of BATS revenue.
I think the best the SP will probably do next week is the recent resistance at around 2740. I’ve added 3 extra positions recently. Prices are different as I use spreadbetting futures but was around today’s price so didn’t catch the bottom. I’ll close one position Tues/Wed as I want a bit of free cash, but I’ll probably let the others run, collect the div and close at 2840 in a few weeks time.
This nearly always drops by more than the div on ex div day, but also usually recovers within a few days/weeks to close the gap.
Only short term risk is if there’s no rise next week and the SP is at current levels, then there is a good chance that the ex div drop could break through current support and drop down to around 2500. That would be a fill yer boots level for me!
Compound, 'seen' you on the BP board who, like myself, have taken advantage of the recent rally & sold some/all.
Am also long on BATS & was hoping for a rally in SP running up to XD on 30th. Was tempting to top up at recent low at £26.26, but dithered & missed that bottom. So, have set myself a target on the run up of £28 to sell.
That will give me a tidy in/out profit but is a 5% rise from 2,666 now. Doable maybe?
If it doesn't happen i'll take the 54p, but SP drops more than divi sometimes so would rather get out with the cap gain.
Trying to get p/f to 60/65% cash as i think there may be the possibility of a correction.....
Reference today's stabilisation notice, I'm guessing they are expecting volatility ahead?
Let's see how much she drops ex divi...
High - It’s not quite as straightforward as that. BATS can borrow money relatively cheaply as it has an ok credit rating. That credit rating is based upon it slowly deleveraging after the Phillips acquisition as at the moment they have 45bn of debt which is high for the sector. If they didn’t pay off some of their debt, then they would get downgraded by the credit agencies and the cost of revolving credit and refinancing longer term debt would increase. Those increased costs would be over a large amount of debt so would be a lot higher in absolute terms than the difference between the cost of debt vs dividends over a smaller amount of money.
I’m not really that bothered about the SP on this one. Long term plan is to continue to compound the dividends in my main holding and to do that a lower SP with less downside risk and a higher yield is much more attractive.
I have added a few more at these prices for a short to medium term trade and will close out those positions at 2840p having collected at least one 53.9p dividend along the way. That’s around a 225p upside sometime in the next few weeks/months that I don’t really have to worry about.
Downside risk short term is around 200p at these levels, but it never stays there for long.
I'm still holding,
current divi is 215.6p per year (4 x 53.9p)
at the current SP (2628) that's a yield of over 8%.
How much lower can it go !
As an investor in BATS the only thing you should be worried about is the earnings per share. As CHRI55 sells out, this to me is actually a signal that we could be bottoming out here, not that it really matters, as I am just looking forwards to the next divi payout in a few weeks.
Every day the company is reducing the debt and accumulating dividends due to be paid out each quarter. There has quite literally never been a better opportunity to buy BATS shares. Remember that as the share price stagnates or falls, the risk actually decreases!
I said it before that I personally expect the share price to languish until the first quarter of 2022, when hopefully buybacks will be re-started.
Personally I think the management have been making a big mistake focusing on reducing the debt, as I am sure the interest rate on any debt being repaid is considerably less than the current 8% dividend yield currently offered and as the shares are bought back the net debt target will be reached in due course. Interest rates are at a record low, that is not the time to be paying down debt, especially when the shares are the cheapest they have ever been!!
I'm out chaps, this seems destined to head south unfortunately, and there's no good news on horizon. I understand people here hold for divi, but if you jump in and out the return is actually better, but horses for courses and all that... GLA
There has been a big old battle playing out here between the sells and buys.
and as Chri55 spotted it looked like a big exit/sell off was made by someone this week.
Ex-divi on the 30th Sept,
current yield circa 7.8%,
so all to play for next week.
RSI has been increasing slowly,
so hoping for a cheeky rise and tidy exit from my trade soon.
Would rather not have to hold for another divi having already done so with PHNX!
If vaping gets banned, then smoking will increase, its a win win so ignore the noise and buy cheap shares!
My opinion the fda review as mentioned stated last 2 yrr.kids in the US were being admitted to hospital with lung problems due to cheap vaping products.
The share price tanked at the time with news of a review, then recovered when it was established it would not effect the big players ie us. As far as I see nothing has changed the big boys will control the action and so it’s all short term headwinds again.
The small players will get wiped out and all their unregulated products leaving a clear path for us to have a decent market share in the action.
"If its not the BOD making stupid UNexpected decisions and RNS announcements,"
This is a perfect example of why I refuse to hold any shares long term,
there is always something/someone waiting to interfere with company business and knock the SP for six.
If its not the BOD making stupid expected decisions and RNS announcements,
then its some jobs worth GOV department meddling in company business and peoples free choice to use that business / product or not.
What a complete farce from the FDA! I've just read their press release and from what I understand, Vuse is now technically illegal to market in the US as they have not issued a decision on it, but the FDA have said they will be focusing their enforcement action on flavoured products and those who haven't submitted an application.
That really does leave BATS in limbo. In reality the FDA probably won't go after them whilst they are assessing their application, but markets hate that kind of uncertainty, and I can see the SP drifting downwards whilst this is going on.
I suspect that this will only be a short term blip for a few weeks/months, as it won't effect current income streams, and I'm pretty sure the FDA will end up approving Vuse after they have sifted through all of the scientific research and clinical studies BATS would have submitted in support of their application to prove that it helps people stop smoking fags and doesn't appeal to kids (which is the test the FDA have for approval).
This could even be good news long term in the US, as the FDA have effectively raised the entry requirements for vaping products beyond the means of smaller companies, so there should be more market share up for grabs.
Could still be a bleak few weeks/months though and wouldn't be surprised to see 2400/2500 although I doubt it would stay at those, or even these levels for too long.
Full report here
At these times of low SP ahd high divi yield,
a little reminder that us humans like doing things that are bad for us:
Smoking, drinking, gambling, eating excessively.
"The number of 18-34 year-olds who smoke increased by 25 per cent in England during the first lockdown, according to a study conducted by the University of Sheffield and UCL published today (25 August 2021) in the journal Addiction."
If vaping takes a hit in the future more people will simply turn back to smoking,
regardless of what their Gov says they should do.