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Just had the Sell MACD cross on the daily. I would love to day looks like a bottom here, but we could be at £15 in two weeks.
Luckily I sold 40% of my holdings at £25. probably about to sell the rest.
GLA.
Wow, how the mighty fall here.
I do feel for those with their pensions and savings in here, seems like one thing after another against it.
Just can't ever see it coming back into favour. Gla
Oh dear. My personal stalker Stairgate is now berating me across 3 boards. ADM, LGEN and BATS. I guess he's unemployed and sitting in his mum's spare room to have all this time to monitor me daily. I'll just repeat what I wrote yesterday on the ADM site and not reply again. I apologise to serious posters for this distraction.
"More gobbledegook from Stargate.
I didn't go in to "great length" on the LGEN forum. I asked for people's opinions and recieved some wise words. In the end i sold 50% of LGEN and expect to exit completely soon.
I know when to buy and sell ADM thanks (a GBP 30k entry @ GBP 19.72 August '22 exit GBP 27.15 Dec '23 was particularly lovely) and I don't have "excessive focus" on them. GBP 55k in a GBP 605k portfolio so about 9%. A little high but manageable.
My region split is 50% USA, 35% UK and 15% other. Any problems with that oh wise one?
Like I said before, if tea leaf reading (sorry charting) worked you wouldn't spend one second on these boards. You'd spend 18 hours a day following dozens of stocks around the world and timing your entry/exit to perfection. But it doesn't work so you don't do that."
Moneybox007, on the LGEN, page, tries to persuade users, to ditch their FTSE equities , in favour of USA, equities, and goes on at length about his large USA equity holdings. Other users, may find it strange that Moneybox007, can wait more than 5 months, before unleashing his anger, in a comment, yet it is apparent that he has failed to employ a basic stop loss order, under the sp, on 3/8/23, to remain invested in ADM. Also for a substantial preferred holder of USA equities, his anger at a small UK equity, seems out of proportion, unless UK equities actually are a bigger percentage of his investments, than he says, on the LEG, user site.
Don't listen to Stargate - he's either a malfunctioning bot or just useless at predictions/commentary.
Here is a post I placed on the ADM board:
"Stargate
Just go away with your lame predictions. On August 3rd you said it(ADM) was going down to GBP 19.73 and it rose to GBP 24.90 over the next 4 weeks and on to GBP 28.01 by early December.If you were making money from looking at tea leaves (sorry charting) why would you spend one second posting it here?"
The ARMS,breadth index has fallen below 0.5, which often signals turning points, on the Ftse100. In addition the gold price has fallen below its exponential 50 day moving average, which is usually bullish for the USA dollar. The next significant dollar event is the Fed, policy meeting on 31/1/24, where is assumed, no change will be made to interest rate. The probability favour upside for the dollar, which is positive news for the BATS, sp, along with Ftse100 equities, in general.
Use/pound rate moved above 0.7923 today, which is bullish, for BATS, for dollar earnings. William %R, indicator, made a hidden divergence, when it made a new low, while BATS, sp, did not. Normally, this is viewed as a bullish signal, in an uptrend, although BATS, could be viewed as within a sideways congestion. I must stress, that no other traditional indicator, is showing a hidden divergence at present. The gap up today, requires to close above the midpoint of yesterday's high/low price range of 2303, to provide some reassurance of sp, stability.
The dollar/british pound, requires to move above 0.7923, otherwise a move below 0.7811, could mean further downside for sterling. As a general rule FTSE100, companies benefit from a strong dollar, so a dollar exchange move above 0.7923, would be expected to provide support to BATS, sp. The last exchange chart movement , was inside the range of the last preceding swing down move.
Well, the chart looks absolutely f***ing awful!
£23.50-70 was historical support. It's just rejected off that twice.
Only sector riser today , is Medical services, plus 0.92. The medical sector , had 6 fallers, and 3 risers, of the risers the large equity Smith & Nephew, probably accounts for what would otherwise have been a fall for the sector, in sympathy with the other sector falls.
You'd think the news that tobacco (and booze) is driving inflation upwards is good news for BATS. I appreciate partly tax related, but tax is only ever couple to inherent product cost at point of sale. So BATS should be making more money on their respective product sales in light of this news
Uk inflation rise, ironically due to the government increase in duty on tobacco. So timeline for interest rate reduction, postponed further, in the UK. The FTSE100, is likely to fall to level of 7417, in my opinion, with the index chart showing a price pivot break downwards, yesterday. My previous missive was a response to a hyperlink chart of the relative ratio between BATS and the FTSE100.
Stargate, English please
The BATS/VUKE, monthly relative monthly chart, requires to develop a monthly heikin ashi price bar, with an upper shadow, to show bullish/upward price action. This is the reverse of what people expect with standard Japanese candlesticks. Without being over optimistic, any higher price target, would be the middle median line, bearing in mind, that the tobacco sector, may well be in a secular decline, due to government regulation. Lower time frames, would be expected to provide a more accurate entry, at some point, weekly/daily.
Yes BATS is down against FTSE 100. but it looks like it's got a better relative value?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BATS/SxGy0amn-BATS-VUKE-FTSE100-Time-to-buy-BATS/
SUK2, reverse ftse100, derivative, crossed above price pivot 367.2, today. Since this is the second pivot break, upward, this appears to be an uptrend, in the reverse derivative of the ftse100, meaning the FTSE100, is in a downtrend today. The SUK2, derivative initial sp, target is 380. The SUK2 ticker downtrend from October 2023, was broken upward, which reinforced the current uptrend, but downtrend in the actual FTSE100. Watch the pivot level of 2334, mentioned in my previous missive, for a close below 2334. At present the tobacco sector has fallen a bigger %, than the FTSE100, a sign of weakness in the sector .
Price action today has been contained within the range of the doji, Japanese candlestick day of 8/1/24. The doji, candlestick day, range of high 2379.5, and low 2334, can be treated as the pivots, to determine which direction BATS, will head on a closing price basis. Disparity index is dropping, but still above the crucial zero line. No importance should be given to intraday breaches of the pivot high or low.
USA , thursday inflation data , 0.3%, instead of market expectation of 0.2%. Markets, do not react well to negative stats, so together with the previous negative employment stats, it is looking like the market initial expectation of first fed, rate reduction , in March 2024, is now unlikely.
Well, resistance is 2390, the gap from DEC 6th is still unfilled.
Doesn't look strong here atm.
Just read that an American economist ,Gary Shilling, is forecasting a S&P, drop of 30%, and that interest rates will not drop until summer. He is keen on gilts, presumably American. My own reading of breadth indicators, such as the McLellan, and new 50 week highs/lows, is a negative divergence, where the indexes, are heading up, while the indicators are going down. This breadth divergence has been in place, since December 2023. Yet to see, if nasdaq, can rise above its recent high.
Tobacco sector, has broken up above price pivot of 26998 today, so line of least resistance is upward . Falling down trend line in the Tobacco sector chart, is slightly below 28,000, and there is overhead supply at 28,000, from previous trading. Expect resistance to occur at or near 28,000, with maybe some retracement .
USA, inflation stats due, this week on thursday and Friday, which could affect the market view regarding interest rate horizon. Bats , sp pivot is 2367, so if sp, can close above that pivot, can expect line of least line of least resistance is up. Tobacco sector was close to a similar price pivot, when I looked at it . Overall the Bats, indicators RSI, ROC, show positive divergence, with price, which is bullish .
Yes rates are rising again, am following daily MACD on BATS/VGOV.
Jobs data are always revised down a huge amount.
BATS, fell lesser %, than VGOV today, so relative strength in BATS, favour. The bottom Bollinger band on VGOV, rose in time with the recent VGOV, peak. Subsequently the top Bollinger band started to fall, which in previous chart records, usually results in a short term trading range, or in the case of a bearish trend, in a sp, bottom. Ordinarily, a rising sp, trend should be accompanied by a rising top bollinger band, so VGOV, is at least taking a rest from trending, at the present.
Viewed the BATS/VGOV, chart which shows the macd has crossed above the ma. Probably safest to assume P on BT, rather than reversal, looking at previous price action, however, previous price action in similar situations , usually results in 50-60% retracement. Also overhead supply is at 152, so there is still room for the chart to rise toward 152. Your rates drop scenario has been undermined, by the recent USA , employment stat, increase. The crucial thing is to give BATS/GOV, time to finish it's rise, since the rate reduction premise, has been postponed, by those employment stats. Not surprisingly the USA, dollar has risen, with negative effect on gold related equities.