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Sigma1, we could all do with some momentum up to the results.
Good luck with your purchase my friend.
As the SP had been sitting for a few days just below the lower support level (SP 174) of the ascending parallel channel,
and the RSI had stabilised,
I bought in today at SP 173.
Nuri had best hope chartist aren't always wrong!
Always DYOR
Sigma1, thanks for your post. As you rightly say “it took longer than anticipated” for the share price to drop to the 160’s level. Good to see they managed to end the day with a small positive finish, having fallen to circa 168p this morning, to then climb 5p and finish circa 173p. I sense a sharp, sudden, supportive rise is overdue and will continue to hold up until Half Year Results of Wednesday 28th July, unless 190p is broken through and a secondary of 220p+ then arrives. Here’s hoping.
Good Luck my Friend.
nuri123a, “chartists are always wrong…” Always? Really? Can your statement be substantiated?
I must confess that I have made some good profits on the back of Chartists and conversely have avoided some deeper losses from the same group. I would argue that Chartists are NOT always accurate with their timing.
Chartists, almost, always give views from “both sides of the coin” i.e. if the price goes up then it could reach ‘X’ and vice versa if it goes down it could reach ‘Y’. With that in mind I struggle t9 understand how they are “always” wrong?
I come in peace… Good Luck my Friend.
The restrictions being extended is not helping plus US markets taking breather has also affected the UK markets, banks have had a terrific 6 months also so a cool off was needed.... Economies need to move forward now.
Any idea why we’ve gone from 180’s to here whilst other banks have faired better?
chartists are always wrong... i have never looked at charts to invest... ftse 100 back to 1999 values AGAIN! Fundamentally undrevalued
Haven't posted for a while,
have been watching the SP though.
It took longer than anticipated,
but BARC SP finally crossed the lower support level line of the ascending parallel channel
at SP 174 on Friday.
RSI is currently circa 35,
a similar RSI value was seen when the SP last hit the lower channel line
on 28th Jan at SP 130.
An interesting week lies ahead,
will the channel provide support and a bounce
or will the SP continue to drop?
Always DYOR.
The big boys have been tree shaking the weak.
Muffster, Good Luck my Friend!
Well i bought into Barclays for the first time today which i thought would be a wise move after the fall on Friday.
I really hope this dip is temporary!
This board is for grown-ups - move along troll ....
Technical trash it is the fundamentals and systematic and unsystematic risk that is important no some graph
Sigma1, it will be very, very interesting to see how this pans out over the coming 2 weeks.
As you say, the Market Makers and Institutional Investors use it as a tool and/or start position, so I’m genuinely appreciative of your posts.
Keep up the good work.
For consideration and perspective:
SP has risen circa 113% from SP 89 (21 Sept 20) to SP 190 (29 April 21).
The current SP 170 is still circa 89% up.
SP remains within the overall upwards direction rising SP channel.
If this is wave 4 retrace of a 5 wave elliot pattern (see my prior post),
then will possibly see SP drop to the SP 160 - 165 range
on the lower support level of the rising channel.
RSI currently 35 (heading to oversold).
May possibly see further drops this week to reach oversold RSI and lower support level SP of the rising channel.
At that point I'll be looking for a breakout upwards of SP and RSI as a sign that wave 5 rise (impulse) may have begun
and consider buying in for a trade.
The above is NOT financial advice.
Always DYOR.
Thanks MrA.
The Barclays boss certainly seems bullish:
"Barclays boss predicts biggest economic boom since 1948"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56940141
Sigma1, fantastic TA analysis as ever.
My last purchase (until yesterday) was precisely on the end of the Wave 2 retrace of 28 Jan 21, selling a little too early (with hindsight) on 19 Feb 21. But no such thing as a bad profit.
If I have bought a tad too early on the Wave 4 typical 2 month retrace i.e. yesterday, 30 Apr 21 then I will patiently bide my time in anticipation of the Wave 5 impulse and then have a decision on when to make my short term sale.
With my short term purchases, I tend to post my purchase dates and sale dates at the time of transactions to ensure transparency whilst sharing my simple strategy and timescales. With my latest purchase I am looking for circa 10% return within a 3 month window on/before/around the Barclays Half Year Results of Wed 28 July 21. All subject to no significant market “surprises”.
All imho please MYOC and GLA.
A huge thank-you once again.
Hello MrA, Rookie, & co,
BARC has become interesting again from a TA point of view,
I may even make a trade entry if it pans out as the TA suggests.
As always, I appreciate not everyone is receptive to TA,
and its not a crystal ball,
but TA is used by the MM and II's to set out their game,
So I'll put it out here for consideration.
RSI had been on a decline since late March,
this week's SP drop has pushed the RSI down sharply to 40.
This decline (SP & RSI) may continue and indicate that
the SP may now have begun a wave 4 retrace of a 5 wave Elliot Wave pattern:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/elliottwavetheory.asp
On the TA chart the BARC SP appears to have been in an ascending SP channel from Sept 20 - current.
Wave 1 = 21 Sept 20 - 25 Nov 20 (Impulse)
Wave 2 = 25 Nov 20 - 28 Jan 21 (Retrace)
Wave 3 = 28 Jan - 16 Mar 21 (Impulse)
Wave 4 = 16th Mar - ??? (Retrace)
If the SP continues to retrace over the next week or so, where will it settle?
SP 160 - 167 sits on the lower support level of the ascending SP channel.
If the SP hits this mark and breaks out upwards again,
that may be the start of the Wave 5 (Impulse) rise towards the upper level of ascending channel.
If Wave 5 rises at a similar trajectory and angle as Wave 2,
it would reach the SP 218-223 GAP where it reaches the ascending channel upper resistance level.
Convenience or coincidence?
Watching with interest to see if this pans out.
The above is NOT financial advice.
Always DYOR.
Yep great analysis again Sigma, I’m very much seeing the same as what your are.
I still think a retest of fib 61.8 could be more likely than a push up through 185 with the latest news in europe, However with the share buy back now active who knows, barcs certainly has strong support at 180.
The DOW has to give soon and although I didn’t particularly think the FTSE is overvalued we all know when the Us sneezes, we catch a cold.
On the other side of the coin I sold my rental property this weekend at £5k over the asking price within 1 day and the first viewing.
I have never seen anything like it, the housing market is booming for sure. A lot of southern money moving up here to North Yorkshire because of what you can buy for your money in comparison, and I think the fear of continued lockdowns.
But again, that is stimulated through relaxed stamp duty and so just prolongs the inevitable to me?
Anyway I’m sorry for rambling on, I think the best position to be in right now is cash because we are still very much 50/50 as to where we are heading!
GLA
Thanks MrA.
The BARC SP tried to fill the SP 218-223 GAP from 2017 twice in 2018.
19 March 2018 SP 220
13 April 2018 SP 219
Historic TA data for reference:
SP continued downwards from April 2018 until Aug 2019 (SP 135).
Then began a good recovery, 55 MA nicely under 20 MA, bullish climb,
until Dec 2019 (SP 193) just above Fib 61.8.
1 day chart Fib TA for March 2018 (high) to Aug 2019 (low)
Then a slight pull back to SP 168 (31 Jan 2020) on Fib 38.2 line to catch breathe,
then began to continue the SP climb, with the 223 GAP calling from above.
Alas, in the modernised words of Robert Burns,
"The best laid schemes of mice and men,
go often askew,
and leave us nothing but grief and pain".
CV market collapse hit in Feb-March 2020.
Sigma1, always extremely appreciative of your Technical Analysis. Really appreciated, long may it continue. Thank-you.
MrA, Rookie, & co,
here's my current TA view on BARC.
I appreciate not everyone is receptive to TA,
and its not a crystal ball,
but TA is used by the MM and II's to set out their game.
So I'll put it out here and we'll see how it fairs over the year.
Currently the BARC SP is being bounced back at the 78.6 Fib (SP 185) resistance/support line,
from a 3 point Fib extension TA (Sept low, Dec high, Jan low).
The SP needs to push through and close above SP 185 (Fib 78.6) in order to continue upwards.
The Fib support level (Fib 61.8) below the current SP is indicated as SP 173.
The Fib support level (Fib 50) below that is indicated as SP 164.
If the SP breaks through the Fib 78.6 resistance,
the next Fib resistance line (Fib 100) is at SP 199.
Currently the SP is treading water and moving sideways in the
SP 184 - SP 172 Fib channel (betweeb Fib 78.6 & 61.8).
RSI is bobbing along around the 70 level.
In my view, the SP needs some news or event to force a move.
ISA filling season is rapidly approaching us,
which might provide upwards SP momentum.
USA S&P / DOW seem a little shakey again,
which always seems to pull down the FTSE with it.
The UK's continued delayed exit from furlough
could be holding back a very nasty shock to the system.
Longer term, who knows, not the chart, but it does provide some ideas.
There appears to be a GAP at SP 218-222 from April 27-28 2017.
Yes a few years back, but GAPS have a habbit of being filled eventually.
The above is NOT financial advice.
Always DYOR.
usually-right, some good observations. Thank-you for your contributions. 3 days or so of sideways trading, I’m not sure where the next dip/entry point is at this stage. Any ideas anyone?
Hi Saurus,
Yes, some 5 years underwater with BARC. Supposed to be a safe bet, Blue Chip. But it’s all about the Entry point, not your share that you hold!!
So this half just sold was at a loss, not large, but money sitting for 5 years with the attitude of “ Bu@@er me if I’m selling at a loss “, didn’t do me too well.
IMO I think BARC is overpriced considering the time it’s jumped to these levels.
I’m happy with the loss and having a little spare, if it keeps pushing up, I’ll consider selling the last lot at another 10%. If if if if
Hope you do well in the market Sir ( or madam), thank you for the polite comment, as I could have been easily blasted for wanting the retrace..
Hello again LeeRex,
If |I remember right you've been a LTH for quite a while so good to hear you're back in profit. I'm out now but happy for the profit net to spread a bit wider before buying in again.
All the best,
saurus