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Yep great analysis again Sigma, I’m very much seeing the same as what your are.
I still think a retest of fib 61.8 could be more likely than a push up through 185 with the latest news in europe, However with the share buy back now active who knows, barcs certainly has strong support at 180.
The DOW has to give soon and although I didn’t particularly think the FTSE is overvalued we all know when the Us sneezes, we catch a cold.
On the other side of the coin I sold my rental property this weekend at £5k over the asking price within 1 day and the first viewing. I have never seen anything like it, the housing market is booming for sure. A lot of southern money moving up here to North Yorkshire because of what you can buy for your money in comparison, and I think the fear of continued lockdowns. But again, that is stimulated through relaxed stamp duty and so just prolongs the inevitable to me?
Anyway I’m sorry for rambling on, I think the best position to be in right now is cash because we are still very much 50/50 as to where we are heading! GLA
The BARC SP tried to fill the SP 218-223 GAP from 2017 twice in 2018. 19 March 2018 SP 220 13 April 2018 SP 219
Historic TA data for reference:
SP continued downwards from April 2018 until Aug 2019 (SP 135). Then began a good recovery, 55 MA nicely under 20 MA, bullish climb, until Dec 2019 (SP 193) just above Fib 61.8. 1 day chart Fib TA for March 2018 (high) to Aug 2019 (low)
Then a slight pull back to SP 168 (31 Jan 2020) on Fib 38.2 line to catch breathe, then began to continue the SP climb, with the 223 GAP calling from above.
Alas, in the modernised words of Robert Burns, "The best laid schemes of mice and men, go often askew, and leave us nothing but grief and pain".
MrA, Rookie, & co, here's my current TA view on BARC. I appreciate not everyone is receptive to TA, and its not a crystal ball, but TA is used by the MM and II's to set out their game. So I'll put it out here and we'll see how it fairs over the year.
Currently the BARC SP is being bounced back at the 78.6 Fib (SP 185) resistance/support line, from a 3 point Fib extension TA (Sept low, Dec high, Jan low).
The SP needs to push through and close above SP 185 (Fib 78.6) in order to continue upwards.
The Fib support level (Fib 61.8) below the current SP is indicated as SP 173. The Fib support level (Fib 50) below that is indicated as SP 164.
If the SP breaks through the Fib 78.6 resistance, the next Fib resistance line (Fib 100) is at SP 199.
Currently the SP is treading water and moving sideways in the SP 184 - SP 172 Fib channel (betweeb Fib 78.6 & 61.8).
RSI is bobbing along around the 70 level.
In my view, the SP needs some news or event to force a move.
ISA filling season is rapidly approaching us, which might provide upwards SP momentum.
USA S&P / DOW seem a little shakey again, which always seems to pull down the FTSE with it.
The UK's continued delayed exit from furlough could be holding back a very nasty shock to the system.
Longer term, who knows, not the chart, but it does provide some ideas. There appears to be a GAP at SP 218-222 from April 27-28 2017. Yes a few years back, but GAPS have a habbit of being filled eventually.
Hello again LeeRex, If |I remember right you've been a LTH for quite a while so good to hear you're back in profit. I'm out now but happy for the profit net to spread a bit wider before buying in again.
on a run up or down in the shares, it doesnt matter which when talking gaps, as gaps can be filled from top or bottom. as for predictions, nobody knows for sure. tailoring your portfolio to the trends of the market is all you can do and within that try to maximise your returns by adjusting when runs are outsized. for example im now out of oil shares, i feel the run is overdone. i was cutting until last week, when i sold my last portion. i think we retrace a bit from here, but i may be wrong. however, i have been investing long enough to know not to chase. patience is what is required.
I had a sell trigger on at 178 that I forgot about last week, so it dumped half my holding near the close today ( I'm only a minnow to most so don't worry, no tsunami's coming lol )....
I could not believe this is so high tbh, thus putting the sell limit on... Naturally this goes' against the grain for most, although naturally I'm hoping for a decline / pull back to buy back in again..
I would say that I hope it continues to rise for the LTH's, but hey, every man for themselves ;o)
im not able to post charts that would visually explain a little more but if you pull up the daily chart of barratt on tradingview or something else, you will see how the shares reacted a few times when the gaps on the way down to march lows were filled, when moving back up. the shares reach the gap, sometimes overshoot, the proceed lower over the following sessions. all the while the trend has been largely higher, yet buying adding and reducing, you could compound your gains. its quite tricky to get every move right, probably impossible, but the odds of a reaction from a gap are much higher if the shares have been on a run (up or down) into the gap. rio tinto is another one that reacted well following the filling of its gap to 58 quid from mid feb. gaps work best when in the direction of the prevailing trend or after a strong run when coupled.
Each to their own but I find it funny how people seem to think & predict a share price through a chart. I think it will go up next week then fall back because a chart predicts it. If only it was that easy eh. How a chart can predict what people are thinking is beyond me!!
I think "usually-right" may have called it. From the TA chart using a 3 point Fibo TA extension (Sept low - Dec high - Jan low), SP may cross the Fibo 61.8 line (SP 173) and may fill the waiting 175-177 GAP next week, then possibly retrace back to the Fibo 50 (SP 165) or Fibo 38.2 line (SP 157) for a pause, to see how the return to schools and increased testing turns out. Anyones guess after that!
The market gave BARC, and a few others, a slap down today. But, BARC closed today at SP 166 and sitting nicely on top of the Fibo 78.6 support line of the Fibo retrace TA of the original SP drop from Dec 19 - March 20, so there might still be some life left in it yet.
RSI was knocked back today from 70 to 64, but this situation has happened before on 28th May 2020, where the RSI then bounced around between 60 - 70 for a few days as the SP resumed it's upward creep until 8th June when it touched the Fibo 50 line.
Will the end of the week treat BARC well, or will the market keep its boot firmly on top of things again!