Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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It is thanks to MT on ADVFN that I become aware of LaLuna shale characteristics and composition . . . well worth study if anyone is considering wider investment in AXL. And political weight / leanings have to be reckoned with.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921818121000096#:~:text=The%20La%20Luna%20Formation%20%28Albian-Coniacian%29%20is%20a%20series,periods%20of%20oceanic%20anoxia%20in%20an%20epicontinental%20sea.
Several papers appear on the subject.
This is interesting: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-allies-plan-more-iran-sanctions-israel-war-cabinet-meet-again-2024-04-17/
Be interesting to see if Israel dares to attack a country that actually fights back. Oil to hit $150 a barrel? Maybe Biden has done a deal with Netanyahu…they’re both up to their necks in genocide.
Hazbeen,
I wish for world peace and plenty for all of humanity. However, the truth has to be faced. Russia has won the Ukraine war, yet Zelensky may still do something crazy like repeat the attacks on the Russian oil facilities. Similarly, Israel may attack Iran directly. We have China challenging US hegemony and god knows what else. Having some oil is a bit like holding gold at times of geopolitical change.
We’ve come very close to nuclear war in the past. If Israel manages to someone embroil the US in a war with Iran, Russia won’t let Iran be destroyed like Iraq. Even the increasing likelihood of it happening following rash action by Netanyahu will send the oil price flying up. And of course, Netanyahu has shown that over the past 6 months he is not a rational actor.
Which of us would commit genocide and use Biblical language to justify it? The most worrying thing is that Biden and even our own (unelected) PM Sunak are still backing Israel v. Iran.
Do not ever want to see $150 oil
Will have huge global implications economically
Any Middle East be be dire for all of us
So do not wish for high oil prices directly or indirectly
Extrader, I'm just calling it as I see it. Israel won't be sorry to see Trump win and this conflict has been caused, deepened and prolonged by Israel with the aim of dragging the US into a war with Iran that enables it to build a 'greater' Israel. I agree it's not logical and damages US national interests but Israel is a like a mad dog that is out of control and the Israel lobby has even more power in the US than in the UK. Committing genocide to maintain Apartheid and steal land isn't normal behaviour, is it? (Okay, the US got away with it with the Native Americans as did the Russians centuries ago - but this is 2024 and we can see it live streamed and it has been recorded by the ICJ).
Forget the mainstream media analysis. These are the same people who told us the Ukraine war was all Russia's fault and that Ukraine was going to win NATO's proxy war v. Russia.
If the Israelis are stupid enough to provoke Iran again they'll enter a world of pain and oil will rise. Don't forget this was just a slap - no civilians killed and full warning war given by Iran. Even so, missiles got through hitting military targets. The despots running Saudi, Jordan and Egypt owe their allegiance to the US, but the people are with Palestine. I doubt they will dare go to war v. Iran in support of Israel.
The oil price has to rise if the market thinks Israel will dare to attack Iran directly. Israel will probably do something as it believes it has to maintain 'deterrence', scaring its neighbours into submission. However, this hubris is leading it to disaster.
And I forgot China, which benefits from uninterrupted oil flow from the Middle East.....
Where does the fact that Saudi joined the West (and Jordan) in repulsing the Iranian attack on Israel fit into your world view?
No-one is interested in super-expensive oil, which damages Biden's (cough) election prospects ...and benefits Russia.
'It's complicated'.
ATB
Where does the fact that Saudi joined the West (and Jordan) in repulsing the Iranian attack on Israel fit into your world view?
No-one is interested in super-expensive oil, which damages Biden's (cough) election prospects ...and benefits Russia.
'It's complicated'.
ATB
The US confirms at least 9 ballistic missiles hit two Israeli military bases in Negav. If anyone is trying to save face it is Netanyahu and Biden. Just like Russia, Iran doesn't mess around. I just wish the UK was on the right side of history on this one.
If Israel does dare strike Iran again we surely get $150 oil. But as Biden is reluctant, I am wondering if we get a false flag attack (like US blowing up Nord Stream and blaming it on Russia) to try and get US on board for an Iran war. If I was the US I'd put my embassies on high alert.
It was a pre warned attack to save face
That’s why the missiles take out so promptly
It will calm down now
Just political games for now
Well, Iran struck as promised. Israeli 'deterrence' is now dead and even the US doesn't want to mess with Iran directly. The same geniuses that thought Ukraine could win NATO's proxy war v. Russia are trying to call the attack a victory for Israel. Look a little deeper and you'll learn that despite all Israel/US high-tech anti-missile defences, Iran took out some military targets.
I believe Israel will continue on its reckless path to a wider war as Netanayahu and his zealots will want to restore deterrence. Bull oil price case therefore remains. Views?
Apparently, US has warned Israel to expect an attack from Iran within 24-48 hours. It has taken Netanyahu some time but it looks as if he is going to get his wish. I think my US$150 oil price prediction looks possible from here. FOMO Friday is upon us.
Building for the next leg up, 23.35p equivalent in the UK.
These guys get top oil price paid and are on $55 per barrel net backs.
15 wells and including the big hitters horizontal
Could do with a nice RNS informing everybody that the horizontal drill has started. AXL you owe us that after last weeks shocker!
Bridgedogg1,
1) You are missing the fact that cash is set to increase dramatically throughout the year due to production rising (from the upcoming horizontal drilling in particular).
2) Comparing AXL and I3E is comparing apples and oranges. One is 99% oil with high netbacks/bbl and the other is predominantly gas and NGLS with lower netbacks and a different fiscal jurisdiction (tax, royalties etc), so of course if you make a simplistic comparison of total boe production it won't make sense. Also I3E have debt and AXL are in a net cash position (I hold both shares btw).
IJWT:
1) 3k bopd does not netback $4.5 a month, because you are only quoting the field netback. There is then admin and some taxation (potentially) to come off that before you get to bottom line after tax cash flow
2) MA said in a recent interview we're doing around $2.8m cash flow per month
3) Don't forget part of AXL production is gas in Canada, which is at best break even currently due to poor AECO gas price
My memory indicates 3k bopd nets back to around $4.5m monthly. Recall netbacks being c.$50 per barrel.
So 10k bopd is $175m p.a. setback, FCF which even on a stingy multiple of 3x is way above current MCAP.
3k bopd netback of $4.5m per month is $54m p.a. so the MCAP is around 1.5x FCF on a backward looking basis which is pretty poor.
Also…
Target 10kbopd in 3 years, mcap £62m
I3e currently produces 21kbood, mcap £140m
On that basis this doesn’t look over valued. Is it just the higher net backs, I haven’t checked but assume they are higher?
Genuine questions from potential investor
I’m confused, he said there’s $12m in the bank, $2.5m generates monthly and the total cost for the drilling campaign is $45m which is funded from cash and cash flow? Seems well short? What am I missing?
I've taken a 'placeholder' few shares here for first time yesterday.
Rocky Ride mentioned this as one he fancied over on the Save.l board and so I've been glancing in on this BB in March and doing a tiny bit of research here too .. I might do some more decent research into this thru April and might then grow out a semi decent holding here off the back..
Good luck to all fellow axl.l holders !
Yep I added 100k yesterday in total
Investors at the recent presentation will be looking to buy in at these levels
Rediculas pullback we have lost 300bopd due to work being done to prepare for the horizontals. Once the work is completed the oil will come back on. Complete and utter overreaction. At least another 10 wells to come this year all fully funded and no need to raise any money. Great buying opportunity.
Surprisingly excessive kneejerk to reassessed short-term constraints. The pullback may come to an end in quick time as drifting stock is being taken up without fuss.
My only concern had been absence of adequate programming for returning high water cuts to basement, but the matter is being addressed. Initial horizontal plan is to test very modest lengths in highly porous sandstone. A great deal will be learnt from the first result, and those that follow will be suitably redesigned.
Those who have studied literature on the Bakken and Missi will be aware that high pressure w/cs from the Andes watershed are essential.
This retracement looks like a buying opportunity if you have the cash. Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities are becoming more desperate as it continues to lose the war: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukrainian-Drones-Hit-Russias-Third-Largest-Oil-Refinery.html
Separately, Israel is doing its best to start a war with Iran (with US help), as it continues the Gaza Genocide. That has to push the oil price up: https://english.almanar.com.lb/2077374
20% haircut for a no debt, self funding development program for the year ahead is shocker. The Obaque 13api was already known and announced previously. C7 is the light oil that seems to extend across the entire region.