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The management of Awe could do more to clarify the situation …
At times like this better not to attack people personally for their views - question the views not the people !
You'll never make a good trader/investor with such negative emotion.
Misguided may I say.
Good luck all
Hi Woopert, hope you're enjoying your weekend not having to investigate and repudiate Fake Facts by the Terrible Trio!
But no, Woopert, we are DEFFO NOT "all ultimately on the same side" here!!! You have 2 distinct 'sides' on all Shares on lse - the genuine 'long' INVESTORS and the disingenuous, dishonest, deceitful, underhand, duplicitous, double-dealing, two-faced, insincere, false, lying, mendacious, scheming SHORTERS, DAY TRADERS, TROLLS & DERAMPERS who spread FAKE NEWS & FAKE FACTS to try to drive the Share Price DOWN. Of course, the DAY TRADERS may temporarily try to drive the Share Price UP, as soon as they've Bought in cheaply but they'll soon be OUT of their position and trying to drive the Share Price DOWN again so they can Buy in cheaply again - and so on.
xtw2, no need to get frustrated. We are all ultimately on the same side and trying to understand the situation better. But human beings also have a habit of confirming their own biases, whether bullish or bearish, and that’s something we all need to guard against.
ShearClass, I wouldn’t say ‘optimistic’ just yet. On one side - a handful of shorters motivated by short term profiteering and an article, not picked up by any other outlet, with journalists driven by clicks. On the other side, some of the smartest long only investors on the planet with massive research teams. Plus, focus on the quality of the company itself, it’s technology, and customers (China aside).
Again, not reaching any conclusions, just trying to learn.
Barcap, L2analyst, ShearClass, you're such a trio of******! I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if you are actually all the same person, er, I mean Troll & Deramper!
You publish Fake Facts & News about AWE - and think you can blindside Woopert - but alas, Woopert has the time and wherewithal to check out your fictitious statements no matter how detailed and complicated you make it! Well done, Woopert! You must have the patience of a Saint, Woopert - maybe you are a Saint considering you tolerate these obvious Derampers & Trolls. I take my hat off to you. But beware you have made friends with scoundrels whose only aim is to drive the SP down either because they're Shorters or want to Buy this on the cheap - at your (maybe) & other genuine 'long' Shareholders expense and loss.
Barcap, L2analyst & ShearClass, you are all so transparent - now b*gger off and annoy some other website.
" I don't know any companies that announce to the market when an invoice has been paid."
It's not really an invoice though is it...it's more consummation of the agreement, I'd say it's pretty material information that should be confirmed in an RNS. As it hasn't been, I'm very much inclined to think it's not been paid yet.
Let's see, you've taken an optimistic view that is in contrast to the 4 x funds that are short + the red flags raised by the FT, as you say time will tell...
Barcap, fully agree with that. I'm also researching the non-China customer element of this. There's lots of focus on China given the size of the bookings, but most of their customers are American. Come up with anything there?
A great debate.
I guess the FACTUAL answer will only be known when the order money is seen in the bank and shown on the company's balance sheet.
Very good questions.
Question 1 - I don't know specifically, but I'm not sure why that would ring alarm bells. Whether the total is $147m or $163m doesn't detract greatly from the investment thesis. The prospectus refers to a variation to the Verisilicon agreement as part of the product partnership. Plus, at the time of the prospectus, they explicitly said that all of the agreements have not been signed. They may have changed. So there could be a number of explanations. I'm going off the more recent disclosure of $147m as the correct one.
Question 2 - There's a difference between revenue recognition and invoicing. How do you know they haven't received the payment? They may have, they may not have. I don't know any companies that announce to the market when an invoice has been paid.
So all very good, thoughtful questions, but not something that I read much into. I am sure all will be revealed in due course!
@Woopert, ok so you want to deal in facts... fair enough! I have also read the IPO prospectus in detail and it raises many many questions, here are some based on explicit facts that are stated in the document;
"In February 2021, the Group signed a USD $54 million multi-year subscription agreement with VeriSilicon for the China market."
"As part of the Product Partnership, the Group and Wise Road Capital have also entered into the SLA. Under this
agreement, the Group will license specified IP solutions, as set out in the SLA, to the Product Partnership on a
non-exclusive, worldwide basis, for a five-year term, for a subscription fee of USD $109 million (payable in
instalments over that period"
Q1: The Verisilicon + CPP fees quoted = $163m, so why has only $147m of bookings been recognised to date? It does not reconcile.
"The SLA provides for payment of a subscription fee and royalty fees by the Product Partnership Company under the SLA. The subscription fee of USD $109 million is payable over the Subscription Period as follows:
• first year: USD $12 million payable 30 days after the establishment of the Product Partnership Company,"
Q2 : has this payment been received by AWE? If not, why not? The June trading update stated : "The Group also executed all definitive agreements for the China Product Partnership (CPP), which is expected to contribute to subscription licensing revenues starting in H2 2021."
So where is the $12m cash? If it's been received surely AWE would tell the market...?
"and USD $12 million payable 30 days after the deliverables relating to the IP Cores have been made available to the Product Partnership Company;"
Q3. Similarly, what is happening with this $12m payment?
What happens if Wise Road fail to make the payment? Are AWE going to take their own shareholder to court?!
ShearClass, I appreciate your thoughtful comments on this. The large China deal was disclosed in the Prospectus in a lot of detail, including the amounts, the various agreements, the structure and expected timing of all the payments. On the recent call, they've also said that a booking is a non-cancellable contract. In the interims, they explicitly saw how much of their bookings are from CPP and Verisilicon. In the interims, there are 28 mentions of CPP and 12 of Verisilicon.
Again, not coming down on one side or another, just looking at the facts.
@Woopert, fair point re. Amati. I definitely take a lot more notice of their activity & positioning than I do of a Blackrock or Henderson. I listed to the podcast over the summer (can't remember which one) when Paul Jourdan disclosed their position in AWE & the reasons behind it. In a nutshell, they thought one of the reasons is fell was because it hadn't been marketed to the UK institutional investors. Essentially, they bought because the price had fallen as they thought they had snagged a bargain.
I had already bought AWE on the IPO day & increased my position after learning of Amati's involvement. However, all that changed when I read the interim results on 21/09 and saw that the Chinese 'bookings' made up nearly 75% of the 2021 total, a fact that was absolutely not disclosed in their 14th June trading update. Even in the interims you had to read beyond the main section to learn of the true breakdown. That plus the increasingly heavy short presence was a big enough red flag for me to sell.
Amati are defending their investment because it's the professional thing to do. If they sold the position so soon after buying in they would lose credibility & people would question their due diligence process. However, this is where the beauty of a proper portfolio comes in. AWE made up just 1.3% of the UK Smaller companies fund at 31/07. If it goes to zero it doesn't make a huge difference and will be offset elsewhere.
Ultimately, I felt the story changed significantly on the release of AWE's interims & so I sold. Those who bought since, why did you do so? Was it because the price had fallen? And do you have just 1.3% of your portfolio exposed to it's future fortunes as Amati?
Re. CODE, it's the polar opposite to here as far as I'm concerned. They are a micro cap with a hugely bright future, well worth researching if you have the time.
Woopert, yours of 22:37, I totally agree with your response to ShearClass.
ShearClass, re: your comments on Henderson and Blackrock, it’s worth noting that Amati are one of the most vocal supporters of Alphawave. In your posting on CODE, you said “The fact Amati took 14% in the IPO [of CODE] is a further positive, given their excellent track record”. Given that are saying that you rate Amati, are you saying that they wrong on Alphawave?
To be clear, I am not advocating one way or another on this particular stock - I am assessing the evidence and just trying to sift the fact from the speculation and hyperbole.
ShearClass, I believe you are wrong on this one. Looking at total AUM for an entire organisation is irrelevant and disregards the fact that individual fund managers are responsible for much much smaller pots of highly specialist money. A $100m investment could be very significant to a particular fund within those organisations. Large funds will meet with management 3 to 5 times before committing to an investment at IPO and will have their own internal and highly specialist research analysts and go through investment committee processes. These are world class professional investors with reputations to protect and custodians of pension fund money, not gamblers.
@Woopert, did you know that Blackrock have $9.49 trillion of assets under management? Their 'investment' of around $390m in the AWE IPO equates to just 0.0041% of their overall AUM. They could have ~24000 similar investments each worth $390m, so the fact one has fallen 50% means nothing at all. Why did they invest? It could have been to fulfil an agreement somewhere else in the dark labyrinth of the international investment world, we will never know. Do the care about AWE? No chance IMO.
For what it's worth, another 'cornerstone' IPO investor, Henderson Global , have $375b of AUM, so their £85m investment was worth 0.03% of their portfolio. It is chicken feed.
Barcap, you're such an unbelievable bullsh*tter and toerag! Do you honestly think anyone on here is going to believe your incredulous rants like you have a Tea Lady on the inside at Barclays, as you imply??? Go away and bother some other website!
Understand, unhooked, everyone has their own level of Risk and of course relatively new IPOs are riskier than some Shares with Performance History (and the presence of Shorters can be spooky, especially around Halloween time!). The trouble is that that's not only the case with new IPOs: look at what's happened to AVON, CMCX, FSJ, TGP, INTC & HOOD over recent months/weeks/days, as well as AWE. Nothing is certain in Share Trading. Once the dust has settled and these Stocks have reached their bottom, I see all this as Buying Opportunities: I've Bought AVON, CMCx & TGP near their bottoms, and will be adding to CMCX & TGP over the coming days & weeks. Risky-ish, yes, but where else can such Bargains be had unless one is on the inside (illegal) or in the know.
Dear jupiter31, thanks for your reply. I concur with your sentiments in your 1st para and totally understand your concerns at a) and b).
I take a little more risk than you by the sound of it in that If I see real value in a Share and its SP with no apparent foundation for a significant SP drop - other than the presence of Shorters - then I invest. Your strategy is less risky but I suspect you would therefore be investing at a slightly Higher level. Who knows though because, of course, this could Fall further. I hope not and somehow I doubt that it'll go Lower than the prevoius Low of 171.80p on 29/09/2021 unless there's genuine bad news around the corner or hiding in the long grass!
Btw, jupiter31, do you have any idea what the reference to Wise Road is about by the Derampers/Trolls on here?
OK. As a relative newbie, how come fund managers like Blackrock and Henderson would subscribe for (rather a lot of) shares at the IPO price? I would assume that these fund managers do extremely extensive diligence. Looking at the prospectus, there was no retail offering (presumably because this company is quite hard to understand from a tech perspective). I would assume that investors of that calibre have their own research process and would treat the syndicate banks research with skepticism.
Barclays Capital is now called
Barclays Corporate and Investment Bank.
They've been recommending these shares recently with a target of 600p.
Investment houses can recommend shares to private investors if they eant to get rid of them from their books.
I'm surely Barclays would never stoop that low as they are 100% honest.
A great Tea Lady works there.... She knows whats really happening with investments!
I tend to listen to her rather than anyone else.
Take care everyone., especially newbies.
Yes, ShearClass - opacity of revenue recognition is exactly the kind of ambiguity shorters look for. We'll eventually get meaningful post-IPO numbers, which will shine more light. Of course by then they'll be long gone. In the meantime, as you say, a fascinating watch.
So, you work at Barclays Capital?
Thanks for the continuous attacks on me.
The BB is for everyone not just you.
My name is Bar Cap... The clue is in the name.