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A bit of a further update for those who may be interested:
As outlined previously 275p has developed into a very strong resistance barrier to further SP appreciation.
The general (TA) acceptance is that once this level is broken further rapid movement is likely to follow.
The thing about TA is that it is as much about money management as it is about simply picking a stock. So a large part of TA actually concerns itself with trying to minimising risk. Therefore chart patterns and indicators give, in theory, a better chance of a successful decision making process, leading to more profitable trades than not.
Back to AVCT: Why would anyone buy now (at 265p) ? Why not just wait for 276p and reduce the risk of no further fall backs?
TA will look at this and see all the tries (and fails) it has had to go above 275p, ok this we know, but quite often, the fall from a failed attempt to go higher is to push down quite quickly to the bottom of the trading range to test, if its going to fall to "new" lows and break the trading range on that side.
We can see that in fact the SP has remained fairly close to the ATH of 275p and has resisted a sharp fall back. This then lends weight to the expectation that soon another assault on at 275p will be made.
Now, we know from an FA pov, that we expect orders will be being announced in the next few days or so, and that's the fundamental reason why the SP is holding up relatively well.
The TA person, does not know the above, but can see the SP, and as I say, comes to the same conclusion (ie the SP is going to most likely rise) and that it is likely to have another go, shortly, at 275p and as a result may buy in at these levels (mid 260's) to gain an extra 3-4% profit rather than waiting for 276p plus.
I know many here dream of multiples of the current price because of the perceived uniqueness of AVCT's IP and therefore a few P here and there does not seem significant, but for Traders (not day traders per se), an extra % here and there on more frequent trades throughout the year, make a huge difference to overall gains and profitability.
Anyway, this is just another attempt to explain that although we look at the same stock and the same SP, how 2 different methods can come to the same conclusion.
You’d make a great politician feller! Just tell ‘Sir Al’ to watch Jerry Maguire, “SHOW ME THE MONEY”! :-)
Could Faron's bexmarilimab cancer immunotherapy be delivered by pre|CISION™ ?
GLA
Faron could be the next big mover this month. I think they are a pharma wonder company.
Correction :
when I finished the post yesterday on what I though was most likely, having closed above the all time high of 275p, was incorrect.
HL was showing an end-of-day to sell price of 278p (indicating a SP of about 279/280p which would have therefore been a new ATH and breakout from the trading range) but in fact on the chart it showed a close at 275p. (That's was odd, I have not seen that before, this discrepancy in the chart close against the SP Buy/Sell spread))
So going by the chart close on Monday AVCT had not in fact broken above the trading range but simply gone to the very top of it again and as we have all seen it has fallen back during yesterday.
The FA explanation would have been a realisation after the "euphoria " of the RNS, that in fact it was yet another delay. (CE was for "End of Q1", "Around end of Q1", "Very early May", and now "in the coming days".) And as a result some perhaps took their profits off the table. Or again was deemed over valued on effectively no real progress made.
From a TA pov, the resistance of 275p was tested again but still held firm. When a level shows this much strength, should it be breached, then the move away from it tends to be more dramatic and explosive. In the meantime, it falls back into the trading range waiting for, one way or the other, a decisive break.
So the original posts explanation of trying to show how 1 stock (AVCT) with its universal SP movement can have 2 interpretations depending on whether you look at it from a FA or TA viewpoint was (imo) correct, but expecting further moves upwards was based on the 275p already being surpassed which clearly it hadn't.
So we wait a bit longer i'm afraid.
confidentials.... as we have a quiet day, a question that has nothing to do with avct (which is one of my favourite shares), what other oncology shares do you think are worth a look? GLA
@Golferboy @Triphop
Nobody gives a $hit.
Triphop.
Our 'chat' all started when I said that the AVCT test would not be ready until January at the earliest. At the time the AVCT board was so full of rampers (you included) that you took exception to it, and tried to demean me and my opinions. You started a bit of a fight, and now want to continue it.
Time has played out, and my prediction was more correct than yours.
In order to further try and demean me, you now search evidence that I lie.
If you look at my history, I have been honest in my attempt to beat my own funds. If you want to believe I have lied, up to you. I care not. Ill just carry on doing what I do. That seems to me making some sound decisions re my investments. and with ODX, some less sound ones. I saw NCYT get to £12 twice, and should have sold. If I was going to lie I could easily claim such wonderful sums happened.
They did not.
As, for telling you where, I am, well, I have no wish to meet you, or your friends. I can buy my own beers.
And, believe, me. I'm very comfortable in my own skin. If that comes across as being superior to you, then that's your problem not mine
Interesting. I’m a ‘lurker’ on here, it’s a fairly useful board for getting info, maybe 1 in 200 posts . However, I’m nit a fan of charts, my pal Peter was keen in the seventies. He isn’t starving today, but the way he gourd on about Chartists he should be a billionaire by now. However, I note that the SP tested £2.70. There is only one thing that’s going to put this over three quid and that’s a cash order. The price is right for where the oncology is currently at. Money talks, bull**** walks. But I think it will come. I’m a long term investor with this as one of my oncology stocks I’m just sayin’. By the way, I rate your ‘Sir Al’ as the right man at the moment. But when this grows into a grown up, he needs a superstar CEO, managing a potential beast like this is difficult.
The difference between me and you Golferboy is that I’m honest and open, even with some of the less attractive episodes in my past. Quite simply I’m at peace with it all and have nothing to hide. You on the other hand exude a clear and unhealthy desire to feel superior and are willing to lie to uphold that pretence? I know which one I’d rather be and definitely know which one not to be taking opinions from? Tell me where you are in the Pattaya area, I’ll make a phone call and have someone pop around to buy you a beer? Just to prove there’s no hard feelings!
I sold the majority at £8. Left some to ride. As i Will in AVCT when i reach a target gain.
You have to look so hard for ammunition, and throw insults.
haha,
I won the argument that AVCT wouldn't have a test until at least January. maybe you can t take that you lost on that one.
I have no reasons to lie.
I already know my superiority to a self confessed drug addled person such as you.
I think that's what gets to you.
So happy we crossed paths again.
Have a good day.
GolferBoy - if you ever get down Ao Nang way, I lost a flip flop on Rayleigh Beach a couple of winters back. Would you mind having a look for me? Grey Reef, size 11, left foot.
Cheers,
L
Thailand is great, and I recommend it as a retirement destination to all. I play golf twice a week, enjoy the bars when there isn't a lockdown, swim walk, travel.
I'm not in Samui, never was, false memory again from triphop and a lot closer to that bar in Pattaya.
So maybe Ill visit it when it reopens.
My, my Golferboy, you do have a short memory and are as full of ****e as you always are? Your NCYT posting history clearly shows a comment made on 31st March this year where the price was £6.92 and you said that you were still £2 up? The price never recovered above £7 before the arse fell out of it, so you couldn’t have sold at £8 i.e. 60% profit and it doubt at all that you managed to get out much before it hit the bottom? So were you bull****ting back then or are you now? Nothing about cheap shots, I hate to see any genuine honest PI lose money. I just hate lying, ramping, bul****ting types!
Feel a bit jealous when I hear mention of your retirement destination Golferboy. Done Koh Samui a few times. Have a mate with a bar in Pattaya...Sabai cafe, if you know it. Good luck!
oh, its triphop.
Your memory is pretty poor. I had invested in NCYT, AVCT, and ODX, last August as I believed covid wasn't going away, and we were in for a tough winter.
At the time we last 'chatted' NCYT was doing the best of the 3, so I was feeling pleased with myself. I was down on AVCT at the time, and I didn't see them having a test until at least January. I believe it was my timescale prediction you took exception to. Mmm who was right there haha.
I held on throughout the dark days, and am now happily well up.
ODX has been very disappointing, and Im about 15% down as we 'chat'.
My original stake and winnings on NCYT have gone into 2 further non covid shares. I'm currently about 30% up on both.
My little experiment was to see if I could do better then the funds I have 80% of my PF in.
So far I am. And its been more enjoyable, though not as enjoyable as retiring to Thailand, even in lockdown.
Have a good day
Hope you enjoyed your rather cheap shot at my perceived loss in NCYT. It missed the target by a mile. haha
I sold out of NCYT at £8 when I was 60% up.
Hey Golferboy, where have you been for the last 6 months? Thailand does have internet you know, even Samui? Last time I remember you on here, you were ramping the hell out of NCYT? What happened there then?
HI Mr ST.
I was just teasing.
I do see shares trade in channels, and trading them can bring rewards. However, getting caught out is always the risk,
Hope this and our other share both come good, TA, FA, or just plain good luck.
Good morning, Golferboy!
Despite some criticism yesterday regarding why people were letting others know what was their 1st buy on AVCT, I found it very interesting for one thing and that was to see, the obvious, the price some got for it. But then wondered for the majority of those who managed to get so low, and possibly with a substantial volume, and who are TA followers, how many of them have successfully managed to increase their holding by trading the stock and, here I doubt anyone will admit to it, managed to lose shares by trying to day/swing trade? Seriously, will any admit that now they have less shares?
This is my last post on the subject as one cannot be a FA and TA at the same time, but it would be really an interesting thing to see how many who tried to trade were and weren't successful; although I doubt people who traded and lost will admit to it (usually should be 80% who lost).
Anyway, good to know TA says we are going up..or at least says we may not go down.
ATB
Very informative.
I bet Mr ST isn't so please haha.
I'm happy to see all sides
Wyn. Is IN
Good post wyn. Always interesting to hear the chartist take on things. Good to see you back. Don't be a stranger.
Cheers very interesting , I think a positive day ahead
A really interesting post Wyndrum. Thanks for taking the time to explain in Layman's terms how things look from a charting perspective. It kind of makes sense. Good to see you back.
Cheers
JT