We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Oh, ok, we're now suddenly including B2B in DTC then...
My point was that DTC won't be substantial, certainly in the short term. I stick by that. At the moment the only interest via Medusa would have been us lot. Initial orders that will hoover up all our supply will come from Govt. Remind me if I'm wrong.
@RorkesDrift I would say that UK must lead the policy on this otherwise private care providers will cut corners.
So I can see incentives being put forward to encourage regular testing.
At the end of the day, the biggest sales point that the AVCT test has, is its ability to significantly reduce PCR testing requirements. So governments, agencies, healthcare authorities etc that are currently spending heavy on this, are going to be drawn to these tests, PR or not.
That's why AVCT posted that piece on 14th July because it demonstrates the effectiveness of the mass screening angle. To date it has not been an option but it is looking more and more like it is coming.
"contracted supply for businesses" this fits with them hiring key account managers.
Good point re demand from care homes but I think politicians both national and local will step in to provide testing. They will leverage their buying power but also will stipulate protocols
Plus Medusa are already offering a contract supply for business with the statement ;
"Medusa 19 will offer a contracted supply for businesses, allowing your business to receive the number of tests you need regularly over a period of time."
Yes its only on a somewhat inactive website for now but that will change.
@PL75
From the 20th May update ;
" Medusa19 will also have non-exclusive rights to supply the tests to businesses for workforce testing."
Medusa have every right to chase the B2B market as hard as any one else. Whats interesting is that they have to share it with other currently unknown parties.
I employ Medusa as the example because they are the only one we know about to date.
Its not really about them, its about answering your point about the market demand for DTC/B2B, which should be very substantial indeed.
I think you misunderstand the agreement with Medusa. They only have exclusive rights for DTC, not B2B.
There is an important question over European markets and their willingness to simply accept the CE Mark (a European standard), a CE Mark and a UK in field validation, or something more localised.
However, its simply process that we are talking about here.
AVCT can access that European market if their test is good enough. So the 1.2m example can be magnified considerably across those 27 or so countries.
@PL75 I think you are underestimating the DTC market substantially. There are numerous examples of major companies with very deep pockets, who will seek out this test for their employees this Winter.
I would also think the UK care home market will be a big and a longer term market, given the fact that vaccines are notoriously bad at protecting people over 70.
60% of UK care home residents are over 80 years old.
1.2m people work in the industry, with a split of ;
465,000 working in UK care homes
610,000 people are providing care to people in their own homes.
150,000 provide day and community care.
If the UK follows the consensus in the report that AVCT posted on 14th July, that testing every day/3 days, reduces infections by 60%, then those 1.2m workers may well find themselves being asked to take a POC test, twice a week.
A good portion of that will be DTC sales. That alone could deliver 10m tests a month.
Not all DTC but nevertheless a significant market for someone like Medusa 19 to chase.
A great many of them aren't working for the NHS. They are private businesses.
Given some of the views above, does anyone have any thoughts at to the manufacturing partners might be, or who we hope they might be?
I am sure we have possibilities in the UK like Abingdon or Omega, but equally sure the international partners will be required also.
Thx
Ha Ha "Matt Handjob".
Probably does.
Then we’ll agree to disagree BBN. I don’t place much importance on Medusa. It’s would have been a great PR stunt, but as the Kamani name is currently mud it might be best to down play it anyway.
I think the conversation will be with Matt Handjob who will ask what our capacity will be and he’ll place an order for the lot. He’s got £5bn in his purse. Ideally there’ll be a similar conversation with Cytiva and Trump.
DTC might come later if venues insist on them prior to entry to mass gathering events, but even then you might imagine they’d be offered in a ticket price and it’d be the business buying rather than DTC.
@BBN I actually think things might move quicker for Avacta than Sona.
Purely because the demand for the test before Autumn (schools returning / winter / flu season) will drive a fast-track process. UK Gov will push this IMO.
We need the official thoughts of AVCT in an RNS on whether there has been successful human trials and what the financial are going to look like. If it stinks then what happened to GDR will happen here.
"When it goes to real worked validation would that need to be an RNS?"
my understanding of such tings would lead me to answer yes to that question
I have no doubt whatsoever that UK government will be a large customer for AVCT. For all the proposed competition, which itself is very limited, no other UK company is currently bringing such a product to market in the UK.
The question will be at what point the UK commits to an order that will likely be concluded only when the AVCT test has been tested in the field. That's not clinically validated but one step further on.
I would think that all markets will be valid and demand will be robust, so it'll be a nice headache for AVCT and its manufacturers to have.
I'm thinking the big money will be government contracts and Medusa are not involved in that.
When it goes to real worked validation would that need to be an RNS?
Sona reported on 22nd May, so approx 6 weeks after they commenced optimisation ;
"Sona has received expressions of interest for tens of millions of its a COVID-19 rapid detection, point-of-care, antigen test and has secured non-binding letters of intent for 4.7 million of its tests, subject to test performance parameters and pricing."
If nothing else, the world of AIM and all the businesses connected to it and through the investors on it, has very much heard of AVCT and what it is working towards bringing to market.
Then add in the Boohoo deal PR.
The idea that there hasn't been a lot of PR to date is for me incorrect.
@PL75 Appreciated but I disagree.
The idea that the Medusa19 team, which I expect will have the same aggressive drive to it that Boohoo had from the start, is simply dedicating considerable sums of money and time, to set up a distribution business that has just 1 product and not employing its networks to drum up business, is for me highly unlikely.
I don't expect AVCT to be anything but professional on this and only talk about orders when they deem it appropriate to do so. However, post optimisation and manufacturing start up, be it for validation batches to begin with, is the point at which that trigger can be pressed. Regulatory approval is a process that has to be worked through but it is just that, a process.
I tend to lean towards AVCT holding back longer than many others would but that doesn't mean that the orders aren't there.
If Medusa 19 weren't in the picture then I would be less confident but for all their awkward press of late, these guys know how to drum up business and looking at the appointments to date, they aren't messing around.
I’d imagine that the interest isn’t that great currently as there’s been limited PR and releasing those expressions of interest would be shooting themselves in the foot. Currently it’s putting the cart before the horse. Once we’ve got a product moving to production and the UK and hopefully US govts start waving them about, I’m sure PR and orders will take care of themselves. Any initial production capacity won’t touch the sides.
Brilliant post.... just a few more weeks then ;)
Sounds like we are accepting another delay, exactly what the share price is reflecting. Wish AS would stop his in a few weeks comments.
But why cannot they sign distributions deals like medusa19 in the meantime!
A fabulous post as always, BBN.
I think that is why many posters have been quiet in recent weeks. There is little more of use to be said on LFT development until that next update. I agree that it won’t contain detail on S/S; rather it’ll just contain wording like that of the 09.06 Adeptrix update - “highly specific prototype...”
The key bit of news will be the manufacturing partner(s), and their intended capacity. Whilst they’re preparing their production lines, the LFT will be tested in hospitals in the UK (and hopefully simultaneously the US, as is happening with BAMS).
I’m still hopeful of an August sales commencement date (albeit latter half); but if not, then I’m very confident of start of September.
A massive two months ahead!
One query I have in my head is when will AVCT be brave enough to start talking about orders.
Sona announced their first pre-orders of 1.25m at the point they stated they had moved from prototype to optimisation stage.
Given what we now know about the Sona test and the fact it isn't advertised for mass screening, plus the fact they don't have a Medusa19 working in parallel to their own efforts, I find it extremely difficult to conclude that order interest isn't already there.
The question is when will AVCT be brave enough to talk about it?
Apologies was interrupted during that post.
I say this not because I believe there is a chance that the test won't come to market, not at all. I am referring merely to the market's perception, which I must say is demonstrating a far less fickle attitude of late, than I assumed would be the case.