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Hi Merchant Banker
Re your 18.13 post I have the following comments.
Your first point has at its root the following inferred faulty premises
a.The last six years have been a failure and commercial success instead of a deserved culmination of the amazing groundwork which has been done would in some way constitute something "different"
b.No evidence that affimers work has yet been tendered. However AVACTA tell us affimers work. So do CYTIVA. So do SKIN. So do Daewoong Pharmaceutical. So does LG Chem life sciences. So do ADC Therapeutics. So do Glasgow and Leeds Universities. So do Adeptrix . At least 5 of these (probably all of them) have gone beyond lab work.
3.Sensitivity will be disappointing (as opposed to absolutely spot on for mass testing which is what we are in fact being prepared for).
4. AS hasn't been talking about sensitivity (wrong look at his videos). He talks much more about it than your CEO.
5.The highest sensitivity to virus particles is important. No this is wrong. Whats important in a mass testing antigen test (and what we have not heard a peep from Mologic about) is ability to accurately detect infectivity.
You are cute Merchant Banker but of course you are biased and your thinly disguised attacks on AVACTA suggest a (justified imo) level of insecurity.
All - we hypothesise daily on the reasons for whatever news item or lack of news item. These questions our are only opportunity to try to get insight or validation for these hypotheses. Forget the derampimg crew... if they inadvertently allow us to ask the right questions then great!
Why do you come onto the Avacta board and post your provocative post? should I post my previous post on the ODX board? do you want to start all that rubbish again? Maybe you need to grow up.
MB - it is always good when you, AW and Ajok start posting - we know that news is imminent!
Your fundamental concern seems to be that affimers don’t work. Daewong wouldn’t have extended their agreement if they hadn’t seen evidence to the contrary and Integumen and Modern Water are using the Affimer in their water monitoring system...
Thanks for your response afama-very good points and perhaps I’m trying to indirectly establish the cause of the delay... has it been a rework to get the S&S right given the new application (mass testing) and infectious period. I need to digest all the other points....
@Merchantbanker, are you ramping on the ODX board to con the other investors before you have sold out? I notice earlier on the ODX board that you were ramping the ODX antibody test as a mass screening tool, but we all know (at least outside the ODX board) that you can't use an antibody test for regular mass screening to stop the virus - what about early (pre antibody), asymptomatic spreaders?
Oh the normal 'banter' I see. For me at the end of the day, whether it's tests (Lab or Poc or Sewer) or treatments (COVID19 or Cancer or others) it's really all about the Affimer technology and whether you believe in that or not.
When I look at the partnerships with all those other Pharmas (very likely others in the wings) i cannot believe they have all got it wrong). As for the commercial aspect, well Avacata are already generating royalties, they are just very cagey about what they are worth due to NDAs.
I think you are missing a few points merchant.
1. In terms of diagnostics affimers have been used to test for other viruses, including zika. Covid is an unusual situation in terms of the scale and profit scope of the diagnostic opportunity.
2. AS has long touted having affimers that are very specific. On the sensitivity side it is now recognised by experts like Michael Mina that those who have the virus cease to be infectious after a certain period of having it. The key of any test which you are using in conjunction with test, trace and isolate is to find those who are infectious not those who are not. AS has confirmed by RNS that the test they have developed with Cytiva fits this remit.
3. You cite the risk of low sensitivity but even tests of 50% sensitivity overall can identify the infectious within 24 hours of them getting covid. 4. The avacta lft is likely to be very sensitive and most importantly particularly sensitive for those that are infectious and because of its likely low cost and ease of mass manufacture and use can be used to screen out those who are pre and a symptomatic and thereby help to exert radical downward pressure on r.
"If everyone just asks whens it going to £3, £4, £5 what are you going to learn"
"What are you going to learn from your questions?" Seriously?
Most of the answers are already out there MB. You choose not to believe them. That is fine.
Let me ask you a question.
Do you seriously believe that smart investors in Avacta have some kind of blind faith, that they see everything in this company's future as perfect.?
They have crunched the numbers, assessed the risks and taken their position. Just like in every other publicly owned company on the planet. So why do you feel the need to ask pointless questions on this board and not the countless others out there.
What are you afraid of?
Mowzer - i can almost get over the second point with some honesty, as it may be that is the best that can be achieved and then to ask the question is it better than nothing? It's the first point that currently makes this uninvestable for me.
Anyway enjoy your weekends said my 2p worth. No desire for you guys to lose out, just genuine comments at a time that will be forgotten come Monday and i will leave it there.
I think the challenging questions are the only thing to instil confidence if answered with enough detail (assuming they are able). This is why I started the thread to see if we could generate some decent questions rather than ****ging each other off. The presentation is for potential investors which includes our very own merchant banker. I’m all up for challenging Al, but poorly thought out questions will get only more uncertainty.
Believe it or not some of the more challenging views can often have the most positive results on these kind of things. If everyone just asks whens it going to £3, £4, £5 what are you going to learn? There's no point asking about things people are already comfortable with. If i have these issues you can be sure others have. If they can be answered to a satisfactory level you might find further improved confidence.
So why worry merchantbanker your not invested?
Much better MB - and yes re your 2nd point that is where clever questions will be helpful. I was trying to drive out the uncertainty by potentially asking about the possibility of multiple products for different purposes. Originally minimising false negatives was considered critical prior to the concept of mass testing with lab validation for initial positive results. But I see a market for multiple products and by asking a question regarding the flexibility of the application of affimers the answer might address a few question marks.
Mowzer, it wasn't a deramp, more a sarcastic comment, but i get your point. I can revisit my main observations and put them in question form if you prefer. Hopefully AS can put them to bed properly and our views can be aligned.
1) Affimers were launched in 2014 when you raised £10m to scale up production and commercial capabilities, yet they are yet to lead to a single commercial opportunity 6 years on. All of a sudden the single biggest commercial opportunity the industry has ever experienced comes along where every biotech/diagnostics company in the world are competing to solve the problem, yet we are led to believe Avacta are leading the world in providing a solution where others are struggling. Why is it different this time and where's the evidence Affimers work outside of the lab and can be used to provide the promised lateral flow tests?
Here's AS talking about billion dollar markets in 2014. Sound familiar? How much of that has he tapped into over the last 6 years?
2) Are you preparing investors for a disappointing performance on sensitivity?
AS has been talking about Specificity and not Sensitivity. Leads me to believe they have poor sensitivity. Do you want to be in a room knowing that everyone that was negative has been picked up but a few positives have been missed? Isn't it supposed to be about stopping the spread of the virus, detect and isolate? AS is trying to use maths to sell the opinion that this doesn't matter when testing the wider population on a regular basis. Don't worry if it's poor, buy more tests and test more....... This wont do, especially as an enabling test. A false positive (low specificity) does not risk passing the virus on whereas false negatives (low sensitivity) does. It is reliant on the acceptance that a low sensitive POC saliva tests is better than no POC tests at all, which may well be what we have to accept, but this is likely why it is considered to be a long way off as high sensitivity is important.
Merch me old Mucker
I'm sure all the tests will get snapped up Sir - no need to fret..
I think the captain might have been joking, to me that was obvious do you merchant w***ers not jest?
Merchant banker that response is pure deramp and holds zero real value - I expected a better response from you as per SOME of your previous posts here. I guess you have zero brain cells left to form a decent question and would rather relegate yourself to the peanut gallery with the rest of the in invested hecklers.
If you want to iron out time-wasters I would aim your comments at ones like below, rather than from those that want to challenge and understand the business.
"Q fur A.S.:
When we reach £5-£10/share do you think I should buy buy a sea front villa in Sitges near Barcelona or try Barbados ?"
One Question - for MFM
What's it like to be mortgage free?
Must be nice not being worried or uptight all the time?
MGM, I believe you filtered me?
If not are you selling?
Merchant - LOL
Bad day at the ODX Office?
Yet again, another important few weeks coming up Alastair has to give an outstanding performance to get the sp over 200p. No pressure! Lol