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Ha! Ben, I feel your pain! It was a few years ago now since I traded the Bond markets but you learn a lot about yourself while you are doing it (well, I did anyway!) You know what to do... have a plan.. stick to it... and all will be well..... (Have you noticed how easy it is when you "paper" trade and how much harder it suddenly gets when you do it for real? Anyway, Good luck to you, (although it sounds as though you have this all in hand.)
Wyndrum - noted on leverage; I am well aware it's like playing with fire having burn't my fingers once before...
Knowing the general range on this stock, my strategy has generally been to make multiple smaller bets and 'ladder' them so that I only increase my exposure as the first positions come into profit with a support level between them and the next set. Given the MM's fishing trips, I don't use stops on the highest positions but place them on the lower ones in profit - this way I don't get stopped out at a loss on whim but equally if the market turns I can fully margin my losing positions and so can just HODL until it comes around again. Obviously this would be suicidal on an indices or a large cap, but works pretty well here when I am in it for the long term and means I can get a bit more out my capital.
BUT as you say, leverage leads to emotions and over trading. So my plan was working really well - until I stopped following it and took out a bunch of my positions... hence I am now fretting about entering near the top of the market!
wyndrum, thanks for the nice reply, I totally agree. spread betting indices should be easy, the price can only do two things right? as it seem you know, it is the devils work! We learn all the time don't we. I love this stock and it's the biggest in my portfolio, and as well as learning a bit about chemistry and biology, I have learned from reading this bb, that AIM market makers can make such a difference to the "price". I normally only trade FTES250, and the bigger volumes seems to smooth the fluctuations more than in this rodeo!
Sdon, I wouldn't argue with anything you have said and my experience having learnt the hard way is probably not to dissimilar to yourself. TA is I agree much better on indices than particular stocks, so I use it now to time entry and exit points having already decided I want to take a position in a particular company. It works for me now more often than not and not being leveraged takes away a lot of the emotional stress which can lead to over trading as well as not sticking to the original plan!
@wyndrum Hi, just catching up on messages and noted your post about the share price technicals. While none of us have a crystal ball, so while I'm not disputing your methods, I wanted to share my thoughts for the interest of other investors, so please don't take this as a personal reply. Many years ago I got involved in spread betting on on of the many platforms available. Forex was my thing but charts are charts right? The price can only go up or down (or stay the same, to some degree). Needless to say, I lost sizable money, as the vast majority do. I would have done better by automating instead of real time trading, but that's another story. My point is, I went down the technicals of charting rabbit hole, along with trying to note the fundamentals, after some breaking news upset the apple cart on a deal I was up on. So my point is, it can be alluring to see patterns from the charts past, and project them onto the future, and can work, I'm not disputing that, particularly if lots of others are trading with the same mindset, as that will reinforce any trends.
But, shares are not just a price that has input from EMA's, support and resistance, etc, they are also moved by events (fundamentals). My thinking is this stock is particularly susceptible to news, (i.e. RNS's, rumours).
So while I am not disputing your technical analysis, with AVCT, I feel PI's should look more to the fundimentals.
Ben, I'm assuming you are pretty experienced in leveraging but while I don't subscribe to MM's wholesale manipulation of any SP, I do think they move the price around a bit on days like to day to potentially trigger stops and to get a feel of underlying momentum. I don't know what stop loss you consider acceptable or what your risk reward ratio needs to be to take a trade on, but this is a pretty illiquid stock that has the potential to be easily manipulated, so for the less experienced out there I would just say, beware.
It was a reply to Ben, that's all, not anyone else, but a lot of people think charts are worse than rubbish so I thought it might be helpful to explain the rationale behind the bald figures. The AS interview could have been a lot shorter yesterday if he had made no effort to explain what is actually going on when the AVCT products are being used but I think we all benefitted more form the long version? I'm tired of having to justify every post I make to somebody or other. Read them,don't read them, I really don't care but try and stop assuming your view of my posts has any particular validity with anybody else.
Hi Ben, the chart is right on a cusp. And its a bit broad: you can argue this either way:: There is a resistance between 195p and 203p so as its less than the top of 203p then as I say an argument can be made to short the stock, as its failed to hold on to gains and been quite volatile from these current levels, but to where, 195p? not worthwhile, could it fall further, yes of course but, 188p would be next, so targets 1 and 2 are pretty tight and I can't see why anybody would take the risk for such small return. It could fall further still but the fact it has been there and rebounded quite strongly since, suggests it is less probably it will do so again, but of course it could (its just an odds game) So its a buy then? well not really no, (in chart terms). It needs to break and hold above 203p If it did that's a strong, very strong buying signal as it would be a break above an all time high and that usually triggers fresh momentum. (This I think is the most likely) So for people who are looking to time their entry to go long and reduce their risk of losing, they would wait for a close above 203p first. If you were using the chart and wanted to go long now and save a few p and not wait for 203p (and that's fair enough because it may go through 203p and actually close that day a lot higher!), you would I think, have to set your stop at least at 175p, which is 10%. If you are not looking to sell so don't really care about the downside then with the spread at any given time you might as well buy now and then not have to worry about missing the boat if a big leap suddenly occurs for the sake of a potential 2-5p less entry price How helpful this is I don't know. but this slow movement around this price only confirms my personal analysis above, and suggest to me , the "big" money is waiting for 203p (plus) before getting in.
What sort of timescale have people got for the CE marking? The rns with provisional figures was the 16th so you would think they were ahead of the game in terms of the next validation and it shouldn't be long at all with mologic having experience of CE marking.