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Read energyshares The Portfolio thread. Ignore his Aviva cross ramp at the end, the rest of it is about this single company. There’s a ridiculous amount of potential here. The mcap could very well be many many billions so there’s plenty room for huge increases. Go on the company website and do some research, there’s a ton of good stuff on there including recent presentations. There absolutely no point asking for share price predictions, you’ll only be told stupid things like £200 exc Chin-ah. There are currently too many unknowns to determine the share price. Once you’ve done some research let us know what you think
I agree with you on the manufacturing side, it’s definitely another strength over the competition.
My use of technical terms such as N mush shows my level of knowledge. Just an idea, definitely interested if anyone could validate it. You’re probably right as the N protein has to be there if the S is. PresAl did comment on the S protein being more stable in mucus, so maybe that gives the necessary advantage to identify the infectious that little bit sooner.
No worries PL, I’m not hooked on manufacturing. Just thinking the ability to produce at lower cost would be another invaluable longer term advantage.
This is an interesting idea about the e.g. 2-8 days vs 4-10 days detection.
I’ve seen a lot of assertions on this BB to this effect, based on the idea that N proteins are more likely to be detected later, once the virus starts to break up in the human system and release the nucleocapsid protein.
However, I’m pretty sure most N protein tests include something in the buffer to break up intact virions and enable detection of the N protein. So I don’t see theoretically why they can’t detect that just as early as the S protein tests start detecting. Likewise, wouldn’t broken spike proteins persist in the body for a while after infectiousness, same as N proteins, or would spikes be cleared up faster by antibodies, as they first triggered the immune response?
I may well have missing something, possibly some research was posted to back this up one day. Happy to be corrected.
My thinking is that in days 2 & 3 there’ll be lots of intact spikes kicking about in the nose, by days 9 & 10 it’s more just the N mush that’s left and the bulk of the infection has shifted down the respiratory tract. Apologies for the use of the technical term mush.
The 2-8 day detection is a significant advantage and another thing that differentiates Avacta's test PL. I think governments / companies will continue to become more and more educated about the nuances of rapid tests, encouraging greater focus on the tests that can really do the job.
CO, I know your post was wanting to talk about manufacturing, but I’m going to ignore that bit, soz....
The comparison of S to N is interesting from a validation perspective. My best guess is that we might be equivalent, but aim at a slightly different but potentially much more effective subset of the infected population. We know PCR will find anyone positive. We then consider N protein tests, they’re successfully picking up people with high viral loads, say day 4-10. However, the holy grail is spotting the asymptomatic and others as early as possible. Targeting the spike could mean that we can pick up those in days 2-8 instead. Overall we might look similar in validation, we’d miss cases in those where there viral load is starting to fall but we’d crucially, for controlling r, pick up the equivalent number of people as their viral load is increasing. With genuinely regular testing, say every other day, you’d spot everyone as soon as they’re near being infectious. Bingo, pandemic solved, on to cancer... thoughts?
Something we haven’t talked about for a while, but the ease of manufacturing, robustness and stability of affimers (vs monoclonal antibodies) potentially make Avacta’s tests cheaper to produce, store and transport, and not limited by reagent supply. Real advantages there in scaling up.
To me this gives us two potential angles at securing long term demand and displacing competitors - quality and price.
On quality, we don’t know for sure yet that Avacta’s “best spike protein test” is better than the best N-protein tests, we just hope and trust Al and that the company knows what it’s doing. (Not to mention the possible future Avacta-Mologic S/N test.)
If we can at least match competitors on quality, but also beat them on price (and massive scale would help here), Avacta gets to capture more LFT market share for the long term, help out more people globally at a better price, and we can start talking about a multiple on these annual revenues. Companies that benefit all their stakeholders, including customers and society, generate good-will (NB good for SP) and tend to have more sustainable success long-term.
Maaaaaatt, I’ve also said all along that we should name our price. The govt have paid top dollar for imported tests from our friends in Chin-ah. It’s insane that they’ll pay £15 a pop for those then insist that they’ll only fork out £6 for a better product. I hope that the CV and subsequent CE marking opening up other markets makes it clear to the govt that if they want the best they have to pay for it. The govt are supplying some of the manufacturing, but that shouldn’t impact our margin. Personally I’m hoping for both, the govt can use their capacity and we’ll have £8bn from them and also secure enough private capacity elsewhere to make enough to justify £200 exc Chin-ah.
cfds - whilst a takeover would be great for us financially I would prefer it if Avacta stayed independent and just became a world class company and let the share price grow organically. I really don't want it to go the way of ARM where once a British company gets to a certain level it gets takeover.
I am not clear what manufacturing capability Avacta have available to them........can anybody guess? However working from a different direction, the demand appears to be as follows; £8b contract at £5/test is 1.6b tests/a is 133m tests/mth. IF Avacta can provide it all (?) then annual profit at £1/test is £1.6bn!! Where does that move the sp to then!? One years cash gives £6.4, so several years is.....?
As a taxpayer ive been fleeced for years anyway. Even during these lockdowns there is little to no support for some.. ie me! As far as I am concerned hmg would let my family starve before supporting me, screw them.
You’ve said it, it’s the security of a recurring large volume contract and the associated PR and networks that come with it, plus the inability of the UK to get their act together and the unlimited Sunak moneytree - I’d be over the moon. We’ll probably supply significant volumes to both though and it’s a brilliant hedge.
Maybe it's good to give UK gov a sweetheart deal given that there's a lot of talk about making MHRA the world's most agile and innovative regulatory agency. Could pave the way for fast track approvals of AVA6000 etc. If I remember right initial talk re AVA6000 was about securing FDA approval but then the application was switched over to MHRA
I work on the principal in Big Al we trust as if you don’t why are you invested? In one of his earlier interviews he touched on a capacity of 120pm I am hoping for this as even at £1 profit per test think what rocket that would put under our share price. I also think it only a matter of time before big pharma comes sniffing £5 billion now or £25 billion in a couple of years. When looking at risk v reward for big pharma it is quite favourable as not just one shot boom/bust plenty of shots at goal. I will be very surprised if Avacta are still independent in 18 months time and hope they won’t be as I am the worlds worst at knowing when to sell so a takeover is perfect for me!
Agree with what appears to be the prevailing thought that HMG is not the be all and end all for us as it may be for instance for ODX. The consequential risk of our margins being screwed is therefor not a factor for us as it is for them (and anyone who just relies on one main customer). We on the other hand are talking about selling to government(s) and health service(s) at our mid single digit price (albeit the "dripping Roast" is Private Companies). Was it Benbenbenben whose friend talked about AVCT not yet having committed themselves to HMG in the way that others such as ODX had)?