The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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So that puts us very close to 1.7 billion of those 2 billion doses, highly likely not seeing the light of day until year end, at best.
Am I happy about that? No but at the same time I don't like the idea of these rapid development programmes that appear to serve the wrong people and the wrong purposes. Plus fact is fact and cannot be avoided, however much we want it to be true.
and the damn thing still has to do its job, which to date nobody knows its capable of.
AND! to top it all off, the talk on the town is that 2 doses of the Oxford vaccine will likely be required for it to be effective, so everything potentially needs to be halved.
Last one from me for a while.
Back to our debate on those 2 billion Astra Zenica vaccine doses.
Remember we were at 700m doses.
"AzstraZeneca and Serum Institute of India (SII) have reached a licensing agreement to supply one billion doses of the Oxford University vaccine candidate against Covid-19 to middle and low income countries, including India."
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/astrazeneca-serum-institute-of-india-sign-licensing-deal-for-1-billion-doses-of-oxford-vaccine/articleshow/76202016.cms?from=mdr
Here's a tweet from the CEO of that same Indian private company Serum Institute of India, regarding the deal ;
"to exclusively manufacture their product for India and @gavi countries, up to a billion doses annually."
A billion doses annually. Not by Autumn, in fact not this year at all.
https://twitter.com/adarpoonawalla/status/1271700534609707010?s=20
Now AZ claim the deal calls for 400m doses by YE. However, the following interview with that same CEO says different.
Dated 3rd July it says "we plan to start production in nearly two months" and "we will start making a few million of doses, and stockpile at a personal risk."
So the first few million doses appear to be starting production in late August/Sept and "furthermore, as per our deal with AstraZeneca, we will start making 1 billion doses for India and other low- and middle-income countries."
But "we will conduct these trials in India as well," which tom date do not even appear to have been planned. It will take some effort to produce those 400m doses by the end of this year, given they expect 1 billion per annum, which is maximum 83m per month and they start with their first few million, best case, late August and they haven't even commenced their own trials.
Its easy to get lost in a headline and a big pharma's marketing campaign that claims to be saving the world, whilst taking over $1 billion in payment s from the US authorities but as always, the devil is most certainly in the detail.
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/when-coronavirus-vaccine-will-be-available-at-what-price-adar-poonawalla-ceo-serum-institute-of-india-explains-107991
As I have stated in previous posts, a successful vaccine will help with the fight against Covid, but it highly likely cannot get the job done on its own. It is instead a part of a wider strategy that requires extensive easy to use POC testing. Even better if said testing can be de-centralised and pushed onto business and individuals themselves.
With that known, I am back to my previous view point, that the only thing stopping AVCT from selling a significant amount of these tests, is either ;
a. Covid blows itself out or,
b. The test is not good enough use as a mass screening tool,
but even then, it'll still sell.
For those with access to Twitter, here is a series of tweets I produced on the launch of the Oxford/AZ vaccine trial in S.A, with quotes from the clinical trial lead scientist Prof. Shabir Madhi, who is Professor of Vaccinology at Wits University and Director of the South Africa Medical Research Council (SAMRC) Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit (VIDA).
"Oxford vaccine is the most advanced in terms of clinical development."
"best guess right now is probably around about Sept/Oct of next year, provided that we actually show that the vaccine works this year." Taken to mean S.A. and Africa wide availability.
"longer that we delay being able to show that the vaccine actually works, the further it pushes out the timeline."
"scientific data will also be used by the WHO in terms of its recommendations as to whether this vaccine should be used, in low middle income countries"
"study that is currently under way in UK has already enrolled more than 4,000 participants" in that particular phase 2 study & over the next 1 or 2 months plan to go into a phase 3 study, which is a sort of pivotal study which determines if the vaccine is actually working"
Dated 23rd June 2020 and talking about phase 3 trails commencing over next 1 or 2 months. That places roll out in Autumn severely under pressure, given the results have to be fully analysed to prove efficacy, in order to gain at the very least, EUA approval or whatever form of approval the UK and other jurisdictions choose to apply. Those things do not happen quickly even for diagnostic tests, vaccines are a different ball game altogether. I am sure that things will move very quickly if the vaccine is a good one but it remains a very tight time frame, such that the late 2020/early 2021, indeed looks best case scenario, percentage wise, for the start of roll out.
Further links include the full Guardian interview with Prof. Pollard of the Oxford Uni vaccine team, which is well worth a detailed listen to, as he talks about the tendency for a lack of immunity in over 70s, when given these sorts of vaccines. Therefore, those members of society will gain protection from herd immunity, which brings us back to efficacy and roll out once more. All the time this is going on, testing takes centre stage.
Last of all, I have included the latest guidance from the FDA (30th June) on what is required to achieve approval for a vaccine.
Key lines ;
"To win approval, any vaccine must be at least 50% effective in preventing the disease."
"It sets a bar about on par with a flu shot's performance in a good year."
"An efficacy figure of 50% would compare somewhat favorably to flu vaccine efficacy in the last decade, which has ranged from 19% to 60% since 2010."
To achieve herd immunity, the very first Covid vaccine attempt, has got to out score all flu jabs of the last decade and it still might not be enough.
https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1276422954465796096?s=20
Looks like your pessimism is misplaced alwayswinning. This is interesting - the heading is titled:
'Coronavirus: FDA chief refuses to back Trump's vaccine prediction'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53302766
And Trump was giving one of his unfounded predictions over the weekend how they were going to win an outstanding victory against Covid19. He really isn't on the same planet as the rest of us...
Here’s a tracker for anyone interested:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Back to testing, Sir Al and DW have indicated demand of millions of LFD tests per month for 18-24 months. I agree with them.
And not for nothing I would be super, super, wary of being vaccinated by a rushed through trial. So much so that I would refuse any vaccine for c19 that is ready in the timeframes discussed by GSK & Astra Z. There is a reason it takes as long as it normally does and in the great scheme of things this is not a particularly deadly virus, so there is no imperative to cut corners on this at all.
great post BBN
A key point t consider is the difference between supply capacity and actual ability to produce.
@alwayswinning I fully appreciated your later correction with regards to the Astra Zenica/Oxford Uni vaccine candidate. It is currently deemed to be the most advanced outside of China, whose efforts to date are clouded to say the very least.
From your post of last night at 21.25pm ;
"If the vaccine works and the clinical trials prove a success, it looks possible that we could see a vaccine distributed to the entire country and possibly over a quarter of the world by Autumn given they are producing billions of doses already."
I could come at this from several different angles and may indeed come back to you later. However, first and foremost and example of why that is not the case ;
As of 4th June Astra Zenica have stated "Global supply capacity to exceed two billion doses" which includes the deal announced that day with "CEPI and Gavi to support the manufacturing, procurement and distribution of 300 million doses of the vaccine, with delivery starting by the end of the year."
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazeneca-takes-next-steps-towards-broad-and-equitable-access-to-oxford-universitys-covid-19-vaccine.html
Here's CEPI own announcement, where they state ;
"If the vaccine is proven to be safe and effective, the first doses to be produced under this agreement are anticipated to be available in early 2021."
"Vaccines will be released on a rolling basis as production is completed, and the full quota of 300 million doses is expected to be available by July 2021."
CEFI CEO commented ;
"AstraZeneca and our other industry partners have a critical role to play in rapidly developing safe and effective vaccines and manufacturing the billions of doses needed to put a permanent end to the COVID-19 pandemic."
Not the end of Covid but the end of the pandemic, if the vaccine is proven to be "safe and effective."
Said vaccines have to find their way to what are some very limited health care systems around the world, such that having the doses is one thing but managing the administration of them to a sufficiently high enough number of people, is something else altogether.
https://cepi.net/news_cepi/cepi-partners-with-astrazeneca-to-manufacture-300-million-globally-accessible-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine/
What about Europe?
"AstraZeneca has agreed with Europe’s Inclusive Vaccines Alliance (IVA) that it will supply up to 400 million doses of the University of Oxford’s COVID-19 vaccine"
"will see deliveries start by the end of this year"
Start not completed. Then there's the same distribution and administration issues as highlighted earlier, if it indeed proves effective enough.
So that's 700m doses of the proposed 2 billion currently on the table not commencing deliveries until late 2020/early 2021.
http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/az_signs_deal_with_europes_iva_for_coronavirus_vaccine_supply_1342267
I thought this was an interesting article
h**ps://theconversation.com/fast-covid-19-vaccine-timelines-are-unrealistic-and-put-the-integrity-of-scientists-at-risk-139824
Personally I am wary of any vaccine that has been created within such a rapid timescale. I am no scientist but I was always under the understanding that things like this took a long time to develop as they need to be proven safe in humans. (If you need to see how something reacts in 18 months time well you have to wait.... 18 months unless a time machine exists that I am unaware of )
My kids have had all their jabs and I have never hesitated yet this is one I would be reluctant to let them have (or have myself) if it was released in the timescales some are suggesting. I want to return to a normal way of life without having to worry about Covid as much as the next person but I just dont understand how it can be proven to be safe and effective in such a short space of time.
No safe vaccine was ever developed for SARS 1. They did find something which worked but it had dangerous side effects meaning that it never made it to human trials. Thankfully SARS 1 somewhat mysteriously burnt itself out...... possibly because it was intolerant to heat/summers. SARS 2 has shown that it can thrive in warmer conditions and there is no evidence that it will just fizzle out. Let’s hope that science can overcome the problems encountered when they tried in vain to develop a vaccine for SARS 1. Also, should a vaccine be developed for SARS 2, let’s hope that it doesn’t take too long to vaccinate billions of people around the world. Meanwhile, for however long the interim period lasts ( months, years....for ever ?), it’s game on for quick tests and neutralising therapies.
You are still assuming a vaccine is going to beat us to market when most informed observers have said the vaccine (if it works) probably won't have finished the tests by autumn/winter. People like you are dangerous - I bet you were one of the ones who went to the likes of Soho on the weekend where no social distancing could be seen. Perhaps they all assume that is vaccine is going to be released soon.....or the virus is all finished anyway..
If you check the thread you'll note the GSK deal was only part of what I was referring to. The Astra deal was the one related to the points I made in that post. If you'd read the thread properly you'd know that.
Although I accept different newspapers put their own spin on it, I found the following piece and smirked at what alwayswinning omitted in his post:
Glaxo Smith Kline and Sanofi are close to agreeing a £500m deal to supply the British government with 60 million doses of their coronavirus vaccine. The business department is understood to be taking an option to buy the vaccine from the pharmaceuticals giants should it work in human trials, which are due to begin in September. The deal for an as yet unproven vaccine underlines ministers' desperation to secure a supply as countries scramble to buy up possible Covid-19 treatments. - Sunday Times
So they are close to a deal (not done) and the human trials don't start until September....also says should it work. Still gives us until the New Year for sales - at a minimum - and this covers the important winter period....so I don't think we have missed the boat just yet..
i think avct may have hit the holy grail
Speaking of AIDS... Possibly affimers could be used to neutralise HIV.
Alwaysw*nking...see Mark Twain "It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt"
Sometimes it's best to say nothing. What a clown! It's not about 'AIDS' it's about managing the viral loads of HIV, something that is now extremely successful. In fact, HIV is now manageable to such an extent that carriers can have babies without passing on the infection and even have sex. I know this is digressing, but how can you expect anybody to take you seriously, when you spout shyte like this?
A vaccine does not last
I certainly won’t be having a vaccine that’s only taken months to produce !!
Rather rely on my own immune system and testing !!
A
Did anyone see the interview yesterday on Al jeerza tv with the guy who is running the programs for the goverment backed clinical trials at oxford uni. His opinion was that they will not find a vaccine for covid, but treat it with various drugs to manage it, like they do with AIDS. Did say that they have been looking for a cure for 20 years for AIDS and have not found one yet, but can manage it. atb
Clearly the government feels rather less confident about the vaccine program or it would not be putting a £5b tender for testing for the next two years - possibly then extending it for a further two years......
I'd say the neutralising therapy is pretty specific to Covid and the unique way it binds and replicates. Not sure it has many applications beyond Covid.
The whole Affimer platform is still yet to achieve anything of any commercial value, that's what worries me. They've banged the drum for years about how good it is but they've still achieved nothing. If this platform makes it a quick and simple process of designing highly specific tests at break neck speed for all manner of diseases as Alastair keeps touting, then why is Avacta looking like the last company to the table. This virus has been going on for about 8 months now and Avacta has delivered nothing only promises and delays. They have numerous irons in the fire, but doing what? Since they rinsed investors, they've gone very quiet about timelines and progress and become notoriously vague.