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Nice to see this thread on top as the best news on the lft was the production expansion non-UK with 1 million a day, 30 million per month. This news was subdued by AS mentioning this capacity could be used when needed, or something like that. So people get nervous as being the best may not make you sell best. Not sure about that, but I do know there are smart people knowing the differences among tests. It was good to hear Alistair talking on getting the specificity of the test nearer to 100%, think he's really annoyed about this 99%.
Thx PL75, trust me to get it the wrong way around!
Thanks Pah00, kind of you to say so. Sadly I’m obviously not wise enough not to feed the troll! Good point on the read times. Time to switch off and do something else I think. Have a good evening.
CO you are one of the most respected posters on the board. I have NDN filtered but I assume he is having a go at you.
It's pointless arguing with him he will always insist he is correct and hurl abuse whilst complaining when he receives it back.
Re the CV point if you combine the 2 we have done already, we have enough +ve samples for PD. As you have already said we are testing more negative samples. NDN won't let this go on twitter either I can't work him out, he clearly has issues.
As far as the S&N test goes I would agree, the Mologic N test clearly has specificity issues which would mean a reduced read time which in turn would be detrimental to the sensitivity of the combined test. Best stick with what we have or find better N reagents.
Shame, you might finally be exposed to some of the reasoned debate you claim to crave.
“I would happily suggest cantankerous and condescending.”
I couldn’t be rsed to read any more after that
And I think you read too much into my mention of “the Myles boost”, intended mildly humourously - I acknowledge such tone doesn’t always translate well in text format, but the SP did bounce shortly after his tweet, which I take as not a coincidence. Obviously this is a confidence thing for some people, and has no bearing on the company’s underlying fundamentals. But his tweet and the subsequent boost to SP may generate a trading signal that in turn influences others to buy, or not to sell. Yes of course he talks up his book - but very eloquently, and seemingly with more decency and transparency than most.
Ndn, for the record I never meant to suggest you personally were a shorter (nor everyone else who was hoping for bigger news on Monday - myself included), but I would happily suggest cantankerous and condescending.
I’m all for correction of facts, but “correcting” interpretations and opinions of what is likely, which were presented as such, is a tad presumptious.
A few points in response to your critiques:
“He said “one of the best”. A combo test might be 100% and take the world by storm, but what he was talking up last time, he isn’t this.”
I’ve not said it’s the best LFT in the world. In fact I’ve corrected others who assert that. It might be, but we’ve certainly not been told that by the company. Sensitivity is the highest we know about among LFTs, test method is one of the least intrusive, but specificity is not yet proven superior to all others, and may not be in future. I think the issue with the combo test, given the call for N-protein reagents back in ?Feb from the rapid test consortium, is that they probably can’t get the reagents to match the sensitivity of the S-protein affimers. The test’s superior sensitivity at low viral loads vs other LFTs (including Mologic’s) would support this opinion. Accordingly, if there were no or negligibly few occasions where the N-protein part of the test reports a true positive and the S-protein affimers report a false negative, then the N-protein part would be mostly redundant in terms of sensitivity, and the multiplex test might actually be a worse proposition than the basic AffiDx S-protein test, because it would be more expensive to make, no more sensitive, and more complicated to interpret the results, which would lead to greater user error and therefore potentially worse clinical data. But trading off against this, in theory it could improve specificity in the cases where both tests report positive.
“We haven’t had explicit confirmation of the Indian variant”
Never said we did. It hasn’t been tested yet - evaluation still ongoing
“We don’t have a big enough cohort to be an approved test - yet. Nor do we know what the s/s numbers will be when we get there”
I would argue that the cohort size for the UK gov approvals is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Not withstanding that other markets exist, of course it is important for Avacta, but they can always validate more samples. But fair to say the results might be different. However, we’ve been told performance is not significantly impacted by the variants (whatever that means) - which would be my main concern for sensitivity (alongside bad swabbing on self tests), and on specificity Al said yesterday that more negative samples were being run to refine the numbers after the decimal point, suggesting (albeit granted not confirming) an improvement on 99%.
I can support that sentiment!
we'll know soon enough ,the product is ready ,all the focus now is on sales, credit to the Avacta team,come on Al blow the doors off
If someone guaranteed me 5million AVCT LFD sales a month for 3 years, no questions asked, I’d take it.
No we don't know when,but at the margin of at least 1 euro its going to be a lot of money
I haven’t a clue where we are and when we can expect any revenue.
In the q and a yesterday AS said it would take a couple of months to get up to 5m tests a month from where they are now. And that is dependent on demand.
Hard to gauge exactly where Avacta are right now in terms of orders and current manufacturing capacity.
On the substance of your post.
I’m bot here to particularly challenge anyone. I appreciate the links people post, some may have insight I fon’t have, others post dross I am happy to correct and yes, challenge that dross for the benefit of others.
On the N-S test
He said his self he thinks the current test us up there with the best. Personally I’d sooner try and develop one which had a chance to be certain of being and would be uktra resilient to variants.
That was the motivation he talked UP last time and “ the board” bought into.
Anyone can have one eye and continually see the glass full. Talk their book.
I don’t see the need to
I don’t have to excuse the fall. It’s bleedin’ obvious why.
The uncertainty surrounding the LFD has rocketed up
Firstly CO, it isn’t all about you. I was talking about the board in general.
But aiming or a target date to expects solid news, given Smith ultra rampy comments of a month ago isn’t sign of my being a shorter.
Look at almost all the tweets today, over the past few weeks and months. Posting links about testing *in general* and about Innova.
The real crux is if/when we will have a competitive test which passes the evaluation hurdles which will actually sell
Most of the fluff from the rampers which even dare broach that subject only discusses one side of the coin
But to talk about the “Myles factor” :-/
He apparently has 2.4 million shares & 13k twitter followers
On what planet do you think he is not going to talk up his holding under any and all circumstances?
Ndn, thanks - I genuinely welcome the challenge, if not the condescending tone and insults. It makes me assess my biases, which I invariably have.
And having listened again to thre presentation, considered the bigger picture, and tried to do so unemotionally without considering the share price response, I think a lot of return is still in ply, and am delighted about the manufacturing capacity news and sensible phased approach. I am not impressed with the missed timelines, and the way the Uk government opportunity has not delivered as hoped, and may not do so.
Regarding the test quality. My point was, Alastair essentially said in the webinar in response to the question of whether they were still working on the combined S/N test that they were ready to do that, but the performance of the existing test is good enough that they don’t need to push that. You could interpret that as an Uber test taken off the table. I interpret it as we have the Uber test and this “next generation” test would be an unnecessary complication. Both are possible, I think the performance data bear out my interpretation though.
Tyche -well frankly Im a bit pst off because 40% odd (at best price) of my investment is currently down the Swanee.
I come on here to see if there’s much objective analysis going on, a bit of insight I haven’t considered, and it’s mostly one-eyed rampy cheerleading blx
But other than that I’m perfectly pucker!
Seems to me NDN if you won 8 million on the lotto you would go depressed because its not 10. you do make some valid points but for gods sake cheer up.
Oh I just saw “the Myles boost” (facepalm)
Jesus H Christ!
Nic give it a rest, time for you to take a break from the BB.
CO - he said “one of the best”. A combo test might be 100% and take the world by storm, but what he was talking up last time, he isn’t this.
We haven’t had explicit confirmation of the Indian variant
We don’t have a big enough cohort to be an approved test - yet. Nor do we know what the s/s numbers will be when we get there
All these assumptions are passed off as fact and mislead, whether intentionally or not
This is where we are.
This is why we are at 180 not 280 IMO
There has to be a reason, right?
The whole market seems to be continually wrong, and only holders on these free BB’s are right about *their* stock
Objectively there is huge uncertainty going forwards.
SMITH set up the expectation of immediate sales.
No one else
If capacity wont meet demand and GAD have been knocking out supplies for 6 weeks, you’d think, given his statements, there’d have somewhere to go by now, wouldn’t you?
No rampers state “I’ll expect sales by blah blah” because they’re scared of being exposed.
They’ll still be happy waiting for first sales in 2033!
Anyone (like me) who puts himself out there and states when they expect sales numbers is now setting a fake deadline in order to short the stock
Fkn paranoia! lol
Yes interesting to hear AS say they and Mologic were ready to go with the combined S/N antigen test if there was a need for it, but at the moment the test is already the mutt’s nuts and detects all variants tested so far, so by implication why add a less sensitive N test into it, when it would just complicate interpretation of the results for little added value?
I think there was a concerted effort by some market participants to tag a false deadline onto Monday, to support a short attack and/or cheaper entry this week. In fairness, Al didn’t help himself with the expectations he had established, but it’s clear the sharks sensed blood in the water and piled in. Hopefully the ship is steadied now, and the Myles boost sticks - we’ll see!
I feel like that chicken. My last top up was £2.62 and I am out of funds to buy any from this ludicrous drop. Luckily I ain’t no chicken so none sold. I’ve been here over a year though so my average is £1.50. It will come good in the end. Is it Friday Fomo yet :)
In the grand scheme its not that big a deal, if you aren’t in on margin.
A lot of “longs” will have got shafted by the drop