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Pigster - Ah I see, you were actually trying to do the opposite of what you were saying others should not do.
Which Government department did you say you worked for, or maybe the role is a direct report to Cummings?
I have to disagree with your suggestion that we can have a similar outcome with covid. Yes we could have a coordinated vaccination strategy, but we can't vaccinate the cats, bats and who knows what else can catch it, carry it and give it us back.
We agree on the likely outcome that it'll just be one of those things. We'll be vaccinated (perhaps as I suggest in our early years). Some won't get vaccinated and for some the vaccine won't work. For those they may catch it from somewhere and there may be an outbreak, but as the years go by, our treatments will get better and better and catching covid will just be a few pills off Amazon* and a couple of days at home alone.
*other retails are currently available, but in the future maybe just them?
I agree Pigster.
Smallpox of course was eradicated by a coordinated global vaccination strategy.
For a similar outcome with Covid we'll first need a vaccine that's as effective and then the will and finance to implement it as well as teams of armed 'hit squads' with changes in the law to compel people in the USA and closer to home to be vaccinated against their will.
It's a crazy World out there and I fear the reality will be that it'll settle back into the background with occasional flares and ill people who'll be managed as many are today with similar serious viral respiratory tract infections with the difference however being that Avacta neutraliser therapy will significantly improve their chances of a full and speedy recovery.
Professor Carl Heneghan is the only one talking sense at the moment, the rest are just panic mechanics who have dug their hole so deep now they don't even know how to buulshhit their way out of it. You just have to ask yourself who told the coroners to record deaths in a manner which makes it look worse than it is.
I would reply with "well if it has been possible to eradicate smallpox, then it will be possible again" by the reason why we could be successful with smallpox was due to the fact that it was human only - get rid of it in us and it is gone. But as we know covid is happy to live in a variety of animals and we can test all humans until it is gone only for it to return from a car etc.
My guess, months ago, is that we'll just have to add covid to our list of childhood jabs and find good treatments for it. Or it will go the way of the attitude to malaria that many Africans have - that it is a constant threat and if you get it, you pop a few pills, feel bad for a while, but that's life.
Herd immunity isn't a 'plan' Pigster it's how the 'battle' between species and infections has been played out over the last few million years.
A little over 100 years ago the expectation that a mother or baby or both might die in childbirth was a very real prospect now either eventuality would be viewed as a tragedy.
Covid is no different from many other infections that have come and gone. What's changed is our perspective that humans, or actually humans in the developed World, shouldn't die from them. Which is a relatively new mindset really.
How many infectious diseases have been eradicated by humans in the last century? Small pox and... ?
What makes you think Covid can be eradicated? It doubt that it can. Individuals will just have to balance the risks and benefits at an individual level and Governments on a societal level.
People will die. They always have and always will. We're not living in a Disney movie. Effective vaccination or long lasting herd immunity is the only way to reach the end game here for the vast majority of the population.
The Government are under increasing pressure to sort out the testing, they are being rightly criticised for their failure. Although they are on a learning curve , even me a life long Conservative believes this Government smacks of incompetence, Han**** Comes across as a bumbling idiot . Boris cannot make a decision to save his life constantly making u turns and delaying the inevitable. Han**** referred to the Cavalry coming soon to save mass testing. I wish they would hurry up and make a decision, this week is looking like it could come at last. Good Luck all.
Sorry, I was using you to attempt a joke by doing myself what I was appearing to be asking for you not to do.
Pigster - I'll post what the hell I like within LSE rules, it's not your job to try and moderate this BB. Please filter me to avoid further challenges to your world view.
Check out the brilliant posts of wedME on the SNG site where he refers to a very recent peer reviewed study which suggests that antibodies whether created by previous infection or vaccine may be a double edged sword and make lung damage worse in subsequent infections.
1. gkb - please keep the politics out of it.
2. CS - personally, I don't like the herd immunity option. That requires the majority of the population to get ill, i.e. to run the gauntlet that is will I be one of the unlucky "young and fit by die anyway"? or in my case the "not so young and definitely not so fit and die". Other countries have shown that when the numbers get right down test, track and trace can work to eradicate. If only this hopeless government of ours to organise a ****up in a brewery and get t,t&t working. Ooops, I broke rule 1.
Isolating the infectious can reduce the 'R' rate and reduce the prevalence of Covid in the community but it can't rid us of it DOH85.
It will however allow society to return to something approaching normal with flares and hot spots being detected early enough to limit onward transmission. It will also serve to prolong how long it takes for herd immunity to develop more widely, if that is how it ultimately plays out. Successful mass testing will actually lead to a situation where testing needs to continue for much longer. Not bad then for Avacta holders hopefully?
That's the best we can hope for I'm afraid.
Cases have rises entirely as I expected but sadly this seems to have come as big surprise to Harding & Handjob. It's not just the absence of a vaccine either, it's the absence of a properly functioning testing regime. I've said all along it needed to be in place for when full lockdown ends. They are too busy slapping themselves on the back at the theoretical capacity rather than the actual ability to test effectively. Simply too much dither and delay and confusion, the hallmark of the Cummings regime.
Is a vaccine yesterday's solution? I'm beginning to think an effective Covid treatment, coupled with testing, might be a better long term bet.
I don’t think a lot of people quite grasp that isolating the infectious can genuinely rid us of Covid. If they can’t infect it can’t spread. If it can’t spread it vanishes. If we take a vaccine we’re accepting it’s here to stay. Testing is the cure, and I know it’ll take an effort on the behalf of the general population to isolate when infectious, but with shorter isolation times through second or third tests to clear you to carry on with life, it really isn’t much of an effort. Avacta and deepverge(not invested there myself) alllll powered by Affimers can genuinely help get rid of this disease. This is the upside of this investment if you’re willing to take the risk/be patient. DYOR as always
So if we’re really lucky we’ll get a vaccine that is up to 50% effective for the percentage of people willing to take it. If you’re lucky you might get 60% taking it? So the effective rate of a vaccine would be 30%. Nowhere near enough for herd immunity. Then add in that the reason the govt aren’t bothering with antibody testing is because they don’t believe they last very long then vaccinations aren’t the solution.
That leaves monitoring and breaking the transmission chains. Deepverge for sh.tty monitoring, Awacta for mass screening, BAMS for confirmatory testing and Deepverge for real time testing for mass gatherings.
Wondered if people knew that the report which is widely believed to have led to lockdown actually predicted the governments suppression strategy would lead to a larger epidemic later in the year. READ page 10 and look at figure 3.
“Once interventions are relaxed (in the example in Figure 3, from September onwards), infections begin to rise, resulting in a predicted peak epidemic later in the year. The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination”
The government can’t deny they weren’t expecting second wave can they?
Baroness Harding said “I don’t think anybody was expecting, to see the real sizable increase in demand that we’ve seen over the last few weeks, so none of the modelling was expecting that, and that’s why we all need to think really hard about how we prioritise the use of these tests,"
At this point in time no matter how much research you’ve done you either do or don’t trust what we’ve been told by Alastair in his RNS’s.
I trust him and will continue to hold.
I’ll go first.
When a vaccine arrives there will be no need for tests.....
So we know more or less for certain we’ll need tests into 2022. A lot of them. Also does a vaccine mean covid will vanish? Sadly not. The flu vaccine makes you 50/50 safe/still able to get the flu. It still kills hundreds of thousands a year. The acceptable effective level for a vaccine for covid to be passed for use.... 30%. The aim is 50%. So even with a vaccine we’ll still need tests.
Ok who wants to take the boat is leaving? Go.