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@Covidopportunist, in case you missed the copy and paste request, its pasted above in this thread.
@13thmonkey you could be right, but I'll double check later as well when the presentation is available.
However, from memory it was 5-30m per month for UK, and this was clarified in the Q&A as it's with UK Gov that capacity would reach 30m (again it was a telling comment for those who listened carefully).
Alastair also pointed to the overseas capacity as 1m/day with two different manufacturers and a safety net of manufacturers (which I think is further manufacturing capacity). This was quite nuanced as this could also imply a much higher capacity then what he is stating, and Alastair has learned from his previous comments being perceived as too bullish. My view is that the production capacity is being extra conservative.
Wait for the RNS's this coming few weeks, there should be a few, and this will become a lot clearer.
Mario, I'll listen again but I didn't hear 1m/day UK sources, I heard per month figures and per day rest of world. At those kind of values the usage would have to be very targeted?
@Covidopportunist I've copied and pasted it for you below. The share price at close was £2.74 per share. A 3X return would put you at £8.22. My prediction is at £10.20.
All the best
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Covidopportunist
15 Mar 2021 09:31 on the ODX BB:
"What multiples are still left in Avacta someone asked?
Probably 3x in the short term and perhaps 10x in the next 2-3 years.
No doubt people will make money here but IP will always have much more value than production capacity.
Especially when it is big pharma IP."
@InfinisandBeyond Agreed, there is a seller in the background, but they've been around for short while.
Firstly, I'd like to put this into perspective. Prior to Covid-19, major companies have tried developing lateral flow tests for detecting viruses, but as this sector became well known as a graveyard for investors, many of the stopped going after point of care. The accuracy and infrastructure was just not there for many developers, so they avoided it as the costs out weighed the returns. To get a small company the size of Avacta, sub £50m, to succeed where everyone else has failed is a testament to the Avacta team. It's astounding and beyond belief.
Furthermore, seasoned investors who know the biotech and tech fields will be aware, how companies work on AIM. Their comments when third parties are concerned are to be taken as a guideline. Unfortunately for some recent investors, they have had little experience in the sector or for that matter investing in general and it's resulted in some let down. The stockmarket shouldn't be taken as a get rich quick scheme otherwise you might as well play the lottery.
I'm personally very happy with my investment as I've been invested for a long time. I believe that news is likely to land over the coming weeks [guideline only ;-)], that will take this price closer to my prediction. I'm sure we will all be happy bunnies when the price takes off dramatically (well almost all).
Mario, when did I state that, please copy the old post here?
@Covidopportunist interesting comment. Literally a couple of months ago you were stating the multiples left in Avacta. If I'm not mistaken you were putting this at 3x in the short term. From where you were standing then, that was a valuation of >£8.
Suddenly a £10 valuation got your end up?
Avacta probably hit today by big seller Marik and also whilst there is good news in the rns and presentation none of it consists of actual orders for the LFT. Many folk jaded of waiting. I think this has been the mixed bag all along. On the one hand a generally good CEO who doesn't properly calibrate when giving time lines and since he runs a relatively small and limited experience company has some teething pains developing big initiatives such as the LFT, particularly when relying on third parties some of which he openly stated don't deliver. On the other great platforms/IP and great opportunites for stellar growth.
Some of us probably got overexcited on sales of the LFT and ought to give the management more post test approval time to actuate them. By end of August would be a better place to take stock - we would almost certainly then know of sales of the 30m europe/row capacity and also what's happening with the 5-30m earmarked for UK. The former alone moves the need seriously - even at 1-2 euro margin per test we accumulate somewhere between 1 and nearly 4 billion profit over the total course of the 3-5 years of testing that AS believes is inevitable. I expect as a minimum that by end of August we will easily have sold out of a years capacity - probably at closer to 2 euros margin a test and the market will have to nearly double the sp just to account for that even if it ignores the potential of what happens after. That alone would make most of us happy bunnies.
I am in this for the long term but the crazy rampy future SP predictions don’t really help.
How about we get back to £2 and then see if we can get above the ATH.
The crazy rampy prices attract the get rich quick investor, who then bottle it when things don’t move as quickly as expected!
Ignore him MrAdventurous he's just wasting his time.
"Can always click on the first or last tag."
Give it a rest Murph.
It's unheard of that a biotech will have sufficient funds to go into clinical trials. This has the potential to be very big, I'm buying more and holding.
My AVCT valuation for 2021 is £4.1bln and for 2022 at £13.2bln with no dilution since AVCT will be self funding.
As another poster has said, how many biotech's can say they are going into ground-breaking cancer CV trials with no need for further capital.
My AVCT valuation for 2021 is £4.1bln and for 2022 at £13.2bln with no dilution since AVCT will be self funding.
As another poster has said, how many biotech's can say they are going into ground-breaking cancer CV trials with no need for further capital.
You said you blocked me - very disingenuous.
I’ve updated my back of envelope mid-case valuation scenario for Avacta based on todays comments at the presentation. I based on therapeutics (pro-dox, preCISION and Affimer platforms) and diagnostics (LFT + BAMS) arms. I’ve taken the following points into consideration (and they also act as a summary for todays presentation):
Diagnostics
o UK capacity up to 1M per day
o Worldwide capacity up to 1M per day (well advanced)
o 1-2 Euro profit margins per test
o Quality of test implies not required to compete
o Market well beyond covid testing - range of products
o Variant proof: 5 weeks to come up with a new Affimer
o Will white label
o Continued engagement with UK Gov/ Porton Down
o Demand to remain for 3-5 years
o ISO 13485 completed
Therapeutics
o AVA6000 dosing in 3-5 weeks
o AVA6000 potential read out end of year
o Multiple other drugs in the pipeline to follow
General
o Enough money to 2023
Annual diagnostics sales for Avacta could be looking at £1.2 Bn, adding the BAMS, I’m putting a valuation on Avacta diagnostics close to £2.6 Bn end of 2021 and the covid market set to run for 3-5 years and potentially beyond. With new diagnostics in the pipeline, the market is likely to buoyed for years to come.
On the therapeutics side, AVA6000 has phase 1a readout at the end of the year and 1b following soon after. The total cancer market size sits at around £40.7 Bn and as and when phase 1a and 1b milestones are announced this will prove the preCISION technology and add value to Avacta. The growth is expected to be non-linear 2021 to 2026.
Although I believe a more bull case scenario was in order, I've been frugal with figures where I deemed fit to give Avacta a mid-case value (this was to avoid any ramping/deramping accusations). Overall I'm estimating the valuation at approx. £4.6 Bn (~£10.2 per share) end of 2021 and £17 Bn (~£39 per share) by 2026.