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After waiting for one and half years for the test we shareholders want to see "sales" and not just more news on "capacity", which bit of this is complicated for the rampers here!!
A reminder.
1-2 million capacity a day
€1-2 PROFIT per device
Minimum 3-5 years high volumes of testing around the world
Best LFT out there
Previously told we will sell all we can make
Do the maths and work out what the market cap should be
Plus AVA600 dosing starting in three weeks
Plus fully funded to 2023 even without the covid revenue
Falls are way, way overdone from a minor disappointment that sales weren’t announced in one presentation on a random date
I agree with you there PSB123, it was certainly one of the biggest pieces of news.
We should also acknowledge that the guidance shared on revenue and retained margins per test (€3-€4, €1-€2) is well below expectations expressed here consistently.
The market is also expected to be around for 3-5 years, with the best test we don't have to worry about margins
We always thought 30m was max cap if we got lucky - he's planned for up to 60m, base case being 35m
If 35m becomes base case - why do you need to worry about demand? Not that I think it'll be an issue once the end user deals are signed up - we'll probably need more supply again
Not posted on the Board for a while but remain a LTH, I didn’t wish to post anything negative on a stock I held but had frustrations from Big Al’s comments on timescales , lack of delivering from a commercial side and even going back to January on the saliva test not working and BAM’s as well.
However I think Al has learnt from his errors and I think today he tried to let us know that and it doesn’t feel like the ‘Al Show ‘ anymore ,it’s evident he is spreading the load and utilising the skills of his partners and leaving his team to focus on what they do best which is be innovative biotech scientists.
In a perverse way I actually feel more confident after today than in any time since April 20 when I first invested, I don’t need to list all the positives nor the hurdles either, LTH’s know we are moving in the right direction and we can expect to see a number of RNS’s covering below.
Confirmation to identify the Delta variant, home use for Europe, possibly EU sovereign state’s orders, clearance for sales in Asia all on top of commercial sales in U.K./EU, plus Porton Down which was at one time the Elephant in the room and whilst nice to secure we can move on in the meantime elsewhere and hopefully firm a U.K. Government contract eventually by September which would be a welcomed event.
Avacta are moving forward with a CEO who has had to learn the hard way at times but that experience will serve him well and all the stakeholders over the coming years.
Upwards and Onwards for Avacta.
Avacta 400% rise tomorrow, RNS DPS £8b tender awarded lol
Zoom. The drop was because its all in theory.
Airlines are a potential. Asia manufacturing will only be used if demand is there. 30m using govt. Machines is dependent on government.
Just listened to the manufacturing & capacity part of the presentation. UK capacity 5-30 million. Overseas, 1 million per day so up to 60 million test could in theory be supplied per month. Short technical transfer for overseas manufacturer’s & unless I’m mistaken he said they are already pushing ahead with this.
Genuinely don’t think it justifies today’s drop.
“Will be interesting to see how the SP behaves tomorrow”... guess those concerned about that will have sold today ! Personally haven’t a clue nor bothered, indeed still regard AVCT as a sound LT investment . Good presentation today.
I'm guessing the nearly 16 million volume will have cleared out a lot of nervous sellers. So probably we'll begin to rise again...in anticipation.
Will be interesting to see how the SP behaves tomorrow, will the dust settle of the disappointment today or are we down further? More patience required, but have no doubt this company will deliver. Patience required!!
I did ask in a question I sent before the meeting Livedataaccount but wasnt answered....
Also asked if he regretted the dodgy timelines so was glad to hear something on that, just acknowleging it is a start (Imagine a few asked the same question)
AS is now 'over-delivering' on his 'under-promises'!
Only kidding; I'm (almost) sure it'll be fine and continue to think a RNS on a sale will perk things up. I will indeed be waiting for a Vox market ping just after 7am tomorrow. Maybe later this week too.
I didn't submit a question but I wish I had asked. What is your manufacturing capacity right now?
I don't think the current manufacturing capacity is anywhere near 5m a month. Not to say it won't be through q3 if orders are there.
Erm, no. I'd have sold at seven quid.
So you would be right back where we are anyway then and probably no chance of selling any more in the future..
Just complaining about an even bigger lost profit.
livedataaccount.....yes- I'd agree with that.
"Imagine if they had pushed a poor test out which was used in an emergency but them a similar thing to what has happened to innova happened to us."
Erm, with hindsight I could've lived with that. We might have hit ten quid and the SP would probably be back where it is now!
It's pure conjecture that AS couldn't discuss what he wanted to.
AS is learning to under promise......and probably angry he couldn't discuss what ever it was he'd planned. Hopefully.
Unfortunately that was my biggest takeaway.
The problem is it felt like the narrative had changed from the "We'll sell all we can make" to "we'll make all we can sell" and that was another knock to the sentiment.
I have been frustrated with the time it has taken but actually this has probably protected many share holders from being deep under water.
Imagine if they had pushed a poor test out which was used in an emergency but them a similar thing to what has happened to innova happened to us.
Yes Avacta would have made a lot of money but imagine the drop on the SP, everybody would have been topping up all the way to £20 and we now would be sitting below £4 with very little chance of a recovery and the company’s names completely ruined.
If you are genuinely a long term holder then much better to build a solid business.
I said this a long time ago, I came for Covid but will stay for Cancer. That will generate the major revenue and will be the reason it gets bought out.