London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I agree Infins the lack of available validated test results may be the reason why other (global) manufacturers aren't on board yet but are waiting in the wings.
My most hopeful guess is that the preliminary discussions will quickly fall into place and firm up now the validation is complete and be a rubber stamp when we get the go ahead in early May to be able to take orders.
On that scenario, orders could come in with greater supply available, very quickly.
It almost beggar's belief how slow this govt has been to react to a better test that's been right under its nose (see what I did there) for so long and had not had the competence to not even fast track it, but simply keep up to date with it.
(I wonder if it would have been different if Cummings was still in no 10? well, we will never know)
Anyway, "tomorrow" is fast approaching. GL
off the bottom now Agent. MMs tree shaking/collecting stop losses.
I will grudgingly admit you are making some fair points Wyn.
5m guaranteed is perhaps 2/3 or 1/2 what people may have thought and 30m including govmt machinery is slightly on the low side of what I would have thought. On the plus side we are up by at least one manufacturer (other is now others) which will clearly add to a ramp.
On the overseas point I don't take the lack of a signed deal yet as disappointing - I take it that partners in the UK had allegiance particularly via the consortium, whereas potential partners abroad would have been waiting for the numbers. Now we have them and they are great the deals should start getting inked with capacity set aside/built up in anticipation of CV.
The 'market' not only wants AS to 'show them the money' more in terms of manufacturing and sales deals but it probably doesn't visualise the size of the potential market in the way most shareholders do. Being one of them I see this going big and I'll admit like many I get frustrated when it takes longer than expected but I am still of the view that if a massive pie is coming the main point is that a massive pie is coming - not that 'delays' made the piece somewhat smaller than it would otherwise have been.
The therapeutics was good too, albeit mostly elaborating on what we knew
He was in a rush to get back to his office to ‘ink’ those order contracts! ;-)
That's it in a nutshell Eric, you (I don't mean this as personally as it sounds), assume he is being Coy, what if he is pretending to act like he is being coy to hint at much bigger potential then he can realistically see right now.?
I am not for one moment suggesting you are wrong but simply giving an alternative view. The mkt (and I love it for it), is just about the money, so he can be as "coy" as he likes but until they see the Wonga they dismiss it.
And unfortunately all the past "delays" are naturally going to make the mkt a little more sceptical than perhaps they might have been about the "future".
Somebody posted that he could sell snow to the eskimo's. One of the easiest ways to get someone to buy something is just (true or not), tell them what they want to hear.
We all here, want to read in every nuance to show even greater potential than we even imagined yesterday! We are super biased and we must not forget it.
I think we all know that significant expectation has been baked into the SP. Also that there are short-term holders hoping for the immediate boom/rocket rubbish touted here daily. Some of those will be selling up and putting their Bentley orders on hold, simply because this isn't +25% today. That's how they roll....
Nothing to worry about for investors.
Hi Wyn,
I guess my point is that what on earth has the market heard in that presentation that wasn’t expected when the SP was on the up beforehand? We always knew that it was a few weeks away from CE mark. In fact I think that the fact he said stability would be complete by end April then CE mark in very early May suggests it could be not much over a week away. Also, we learned that it picks up the SA variant. More bonus information. He was deliberately coy about max capacity, but then he has to be, doesn’t he? Can’t just say that yep, we’re expecting a big fat government contract.
Eric, I think the "problem" here from the markets perspective is that's its always next week, next month next year before revenue comes in.
The company is already very highly valued based on the future expectations so the market I think wanted something a bit more concrete. The most solid prediction was for 5m test per month, which is just over 1m per week which is pretty lame, (compared to expectation).
To be told it will go to maybe 30m is great but when? To say AVCT are looking for overseas manufactures is, "so what, you have been saying that for 6 months. where are the partners to generate these huge global sales?"
So currently the SP closed higher yesterday than it is now after the 2 presentations. The day is not done yet and the initial mkt disappointment might well be replaced by realising the opportunity to get in sub 300p, however we will see.
The stress on "Early May" is hopefully (although I feel a mug saying this), a firm date which I would say, should be by the 10th May.
So what i take out just now from this is, the presentations of themselves were great for the future , but not what the market wanted to hear for today.
I've genuinely become apathetic towards the SP. I will re-tune in to my emotion of it when I feel some of the potential has been realised. That will be when Affimers are working their magic after millions of people have shoved a swab up their nose, and re-agents are being distributed around the world.
Vaccine-gate caused the SP to drop to below 100p, of which the SP is currently 2.5x of, despite huge reports stating how critical testing will be and will need to work along side vaccination. AIM is very irrational, the more it's understood the easier it is to set your position and only review when you feel it is best time to do so for any given reason.
I listened to every word and picked up on no head-scratching comments that may be concerned. Just the fact LFT works, very well, demand is absolutely massive and AVCT are directly aware of that. 5M p/m as a low end figure of manufacturing capacity in UK is not concerning for me, given EU and RoW were signalled as potential requirements also. We also wouldn't be hinted at 30m if it wasn't a reasonable goal.
Great presentation, btw.
Sangs post, let’s see how it ages over the next week or two.
I would wait till it drops back to 230 later.
5 million projected per month will be 2.5m in practice
I would wait till it drops back to 230 later.
5 million projected per month will be 2.5m in practice
I sold this mornings 'top up' just before (trading scum) and I'll now add back. It's genuinely incredible what is going on here. The absolute confidence in being overwhelmed by demand tells you everything you need to know
Detects the SA variant, in discussions with PHE, up to 30m capacity a month in the UK alone, wordwide demand, CE mark VERY early in May, first commercial batches already produced by GAD. Yet....... down we go :-) you couldn’t make it up really. Every single presentation, the same sh@t from the market.
I'm really dissapointed that Avacta have not finished development of their machine for time travel, and a 100% guaranteed hair restorer. I'm out !
The price started going down before AS even presented the results. I'm sure investors will not forget this presentation and will be back shortly!
I'd ignore where it ends today as they'll take it down to spook people into selling. Watch where it'll be in a few days?
I wonder if they spotted some stop loss targets at 251? No way will this end down. The future is clear
I guess it's a classic tree shake. Closely followed by a big jump up.
. . . so they are taking the price down to steal more shares. Don't let 'em . . .