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Yes the doxorubicin results in tests with mice produced a phenomenal targeting and phenomenal result in terms of tumour impact. It may be the lowest hanging fruit but they have so many other fruits to target on their tree. I know the placing money will help them speed up with the therapy side but when the covid tests income rolls in we can expect a further supercharging of all their works. And what so impresses me about the company as well is how they have forged loads of partnerships including with many leading pharmas. And those are just the partnerships that they are able to disclose. Numerous more doubtless exist as well as numerous further being discussed.
@Wiggly Thank you and appreciated. I promised myself I wouldn't get drawn back into LSE but on complicated subject matter, Twitter sometimes, simply doesn't have enough characters available.
Everybody's risk profile and position in AVCT is different. Some are here for a short period of time, some are long, one or two are clearly short, good luck to them all. We either call it right or not. All the chatter in the world on these BBs can't change the facts as they stand, however much we may all try.
Whether big pharma acts earlier or not, is for me not what is critical. Lets not forget that AVCT already has some big pharma type partners on the books. Their diagnostics platforms has discussions/projects with 6 of the 10 largest diagnostic companies in the world. They are on the map to an extent already. What Covid has done is highlight the market and given AVCT a greater spotlight to a wider world. This is clearly demonstrated through the Medusa deal and who is behind it.
Can that, will that force a few existing partners to expedite their plans? Possibly but for me its not really critical because there is already evidence in the market that 'big pharma' is already positioning for future pandemic outbreaks. Its a pattern that for me will snowball. Do AVCT need that interest to be successful? No. Does it help? 100% and it adds another course to this investment meal, which in turns increases the chances and avenues to a successful outcome.
Nobody need play the big pharma is coming card too strongly because there is plenty going on here without it. All of which for me is intensified by the knowledge that the Covid tests, but lets not kid ourselves, the LFT, is suitable for mass screening.
And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is why Confiner are here - the risk/reward investment case related to the cancer treatment.
Perhaps, much like I think big pharma will have to act sooner than typically is the norm, Conifer were also forced to act (paying a high price per share) more quickly due to the unfolding Covid story and the blue sky benefits that it looks likely to deliver to AVCT.
@AfamaMan possible so. The indications to date certainly point towards confidence within the company, that two tests are coming to market. The higher the performance the greater the market.
On the diagnostics front, the Medusa deal is clearly designed for bigger things, be it that the covid tests will drive the platform for both parties. I have absolutely no problem with that, the e-commerce, the connections and the business acumen that the Boohoo based investors bring, is well worth it.
AVCT RNS 19th May ;
Dr Smith ;
"I expect the commercial impact of this partnership to be very significant to Avacta.
Richard Hughes and Mahmud Kamani, Founders of Medusa19 commented:
"We look forward to working with Alastair and his team and to distributing other Avacta products as they become available in due course."
In my opinion, "other Avacta products" isn't based on a whim and a prayer. It was said because a strategy has been discussed and actual diagnostic tests have been outlined. All of which will be driven by Covid test sales. Heck the whole Medusa online platform will gain its fame from people knowing it for Covid testing, which makes future promotions all the more achievable.
I agree wholeheartedly that the Affimers have still be be tested in humans and that risk still exists there but given the size of the current market for Doxorubicin alone, in ts current form as a highly toxic treatment cancer therapy for just 3 cancers (ASTS, breast and ovarian = $1.5BN per annum), coupled with the fact that the Affimer isn't the treatment, isn't the drug or being asked to be such, the risk ratio is extremely attractive for me.
Yes it can still go wrong but as stated, the Affimers involved are being asked to assist the chemotherapy drug in focusing on its target.
Can there be side effects? Yes they could well be. However, the first candidate is a drug that already has severe side effects and and is being used to effectively prolong life in late stage cancer patients. Therefore, and I appreciate it is very a simple analysis here, the Affimers are going to have to be pretty harmful to not deliver a benefit to the patients, given they are already proven to increase the number of cycles of Doxorubicin that can be given, be it to date in mice.
So again, the risk ratio for me, as an investor, is very attractive because of the fact the technology does work and the focus is on a really toxic drug, which despite this, still has an incredibly attractive market. So i'm in.
If the therapeutic partnership for Covid comes good and it is a big enough pharma with enough clout and resources, then a phase 1 trial for Affimers in humans, has every chance of being concluded this year, which as you indicate, de-risks the pre-cision platform considerably (inflection point) and could well be achieved, right in front of said big pharma partner.
I second Wigglys comments on fab post by BigBytenow.
Here patience is the key to unravel the bio-tech marvels of this company.
I am sure there will news after news, about every fortnight from now onwards introducing a successful product one after another , as there are so many lined up IMO.
Sometimes when i start to think of so many chain of upcoming announcements , i admit to become some-what euphoric to say the least. When i introduce this product to many in the medical field , i see their jaw dropping either looking at the potential of AVCT or at my euphoric stance. Ha Ha
Sell at this stage to regret , IMO
GLA
Cheers
MKumar
Bigbitenow, it is great to have you share your thoughts on LSE, I hope you do so more often.
I think you hit the nail on the head with the following comment;
"It is also about what those revenues can do for a business that has for some time, had exciting ideas and potential, but didn't always have the attention and certainly not the finance, to exploit the opportunity thoroughly enough"
Without trying to ramp, I also think this will force the hand of big pharma to act sooner than is the norm with tech development.
I think they probably already have best in class BAMS and POC but are still tweaking to optimise even more. And I agree if this is so they will bring in truckloads of cash to the business. But it will subside in a year or two as covid does. Sure it will give a spotlight to their other activities but the real question will be what that spotlight and cash can turn them into? My thinking is that they could become a top rank and scale diagnostics company in that situation - with all the advantages of affimers for that. Its the easy play in that situation. Of course they will also want to do well on the therapy side. This is not the easy play since there have been no human trials with affimers. However, assuming that affimers in man are not of themselves a problem Avacta will almost certainly then be mining gold for decades in developing therapies that are profoundly more targeted and in that sense profoundly more effective and less side effectful.
This is why I have been saying for some time now that the clinical validation or at the very least, the confirmation of a test, suitable for mass screening, is THE inflection point for this business, for all the reasons I have just explained.
Everything else, approvals, CE mark, manufacturing to an available point, demand, will all follows, once that point is reached.
(2/2)
So for those that are indeed longer term investors here, the success of the Covid tests is not all about maximising the opportunity, be it that we all want to see that happen.
It is also about what those revenues can do for a business that has for some time, had exciting ideas and potential, but didn't always have the attention and certainly not the finance, to exploit the opportunity thoroughly enough. The recent funding is the first leg of that and is for me designed to set up a path that the Covid revenues will truly ago on to deliver.
Whether Covid stays one winter or many, this pandemic has ruffled big pharmas feathers and companies that can demonstrate an ability to deliver against such events, are going to be in high demand for soem time. If AVCT deliver the best in class antigen test that is suitable for mass screening and is demonstrated to have substantial margins and better qualities to antibody based tests, then its going to get a lot of attention. Even more so if the therapeutic treatment Affimers show their worth, which they are doing to date.
All of that is possible from an average sales result but a high quality product.
Now that's what can happen if the Covid test(s) come to market and are reasonably successful, what happens if the test is high performing and fulfills its indicated full potential? What then?
(1/2)
Indeed sleepydave.
Important also not to lose sight of the bigger picture.
A successful rapid antigen test that sells in substantial quantities is fantastic for the bottom line, full stop.
However, in addition, it along with the expected partnership for the Covid therapeutic Affimers, both have the ability to put the AVCT Affimer platform really on the map, in terms of their peers, prospective investors and indeed suitors.
The PR from a successful test brought to market in such short time frames, has the ability to transform the way that the AVCT diagnostics and therapeutic businesses are perceived.
In addition, through both their tests, AVCT are putting in place a fully tested lab to consumer partnership, with minimum Cytiva as manufacturer/product developer and minimum Medusa 19, as DTC distributor and marketer.
All of which will be boosted by the funds that start to come through the door once these tests are on line.
Better still, the funds raised at the start of June, allow AVCT to put in place the infrastructure that will be needed for the ramp up in interest/products, that the Covid tests will drive.
Even better still, the expected profits from the Covid test, even if they somehow fall short of the potential 100s of millions, will generate substantial funding for AVCT other pipelines.
Again, just like with the diagnostic business, the recently raised funds give AVCT the ability to push several of these candidates forward to the clinic, whilst the Covid led revenues are being built up, such that by the time the phase 1 trial for the AVA6000 pro-doxorubicin is completed, AVCT should be well funded to then push onto the next phase, in a manner that suits themselves.
Right now the policy is get phase 1 completed, hit the inflection point and then do a deal with a big pharma. That may remain the case but what cash in the bank does, coupled with bigger facilities and more staff (all paid for by the recent fund raise), is allow better choices for the business to be made or better deals to be struck.
This repeats itself because the recent fund raise has also opened up a number of further opportunities, that can all be pushed forward towards the clinic, whilst the Covid tests are developed and revenues are built up.
June 2020 presentation ;
"Rapidly growing the pre|CISION™ pre-clinical pipeline and delivering pre-clinical packages for several pro-drugs (pre|CISION™ velcade, paclitaxel and oxaliplatin)."
"IND/CTA filings for one or more Affimer immunotherapies (TMAC drug conjugate (PDL1-IDASH) or first bispecific candidate) and one or more pre|CISION pro-drugs."
That's what is truly exciting here and really doesn't need huge Covid test success to be achieved, be it that it comes after a longer period of time. said time doesn't remove its reality. All of which is further added to if as expected, a big pharma gets involved on the Covid side and proves up Affimers in humans first.
alwayswhineing, in my eyes, you have gone from a useless idiot to the clown of the board.
i think i maybe the only one that hasn't filtered you yet.
you're too good for a laugh
Great thread!
AS from the start knew how big the LFD would be.
He knows that if you are going to lodge a mega product you need mega infrastructure behind it!
In many ways making sure we have the credibility to supply the worlds demand is as important as optimising the test itself.
Both are quite rightly taking just a little bit more time. (although as I said before both appear to be moving indecently fast going by pre covid parameters). We know there from AS videos that there are undisclosed partnerships relative to diagnostics and its fair to assume that at least some of these are to do with manufacture.
I can't wait to view the full picture when its eventually fully (not partially to satisfy impient shareholders) rolled out.
Falling to pieces? Please elaborate.
As I said earlier, we have a live version of this process with Cytiva involved, over at GDR.
@Ophidian Thank you, then based on that knowledge one would assume that Cytiva would run the main clinical validation batches and complete this process, with parallel tech transfer to other manufacturers/OEMs,
"All coming together behind the scenes" you say. Feels like it's falling to pieces behind the scenes to me. Alastair needs to explain all the contradictions from previous statements and RNS.
Whilst reading the posts related to manufacturing the potential scale of demand could be astronomical.
Even considering some very basic numbers
Approx.
UK - 1.5m Health workers
USA- 9.9M Health workers
Germany 5.6m Health Workers
The rest of the world Health workers ??????
All are point of contract who would need to be tested
The scale of this testing now is small using PCR
If this was only a weekly test - then add the 3 above together and x 52 - 884 000 000 tests per year
GLA
I am sure the UK gov will support AVACTA to build the mass-testing capacity.
"Pillar 5: Spearheading a Diagnostics National Effort to build a
mass-testing capacity at a completely new scale
1.29 Britain has an innovative, but relatively small diagnostics industry. We now need to
grow it, substantially and quickly. We are calling on all British life science
companies to turn their resources to creating and rolling out mass testing at scale.
In the short-term, this will help meet the supply outlined in the other strands in this
strategy, and then help us develop resilient, diagnostic capability in the UK
capable of meeting the testing demands over the coming months and years. "
@BBN - our posts crossed. The Clinical Validation data set will also become the dataset for qualifying additional manufacturing capacity - no need to keep running clinical validations, just qualify the process for new manufacturers.
Ophidian (did it all the time)
@Kaysee - really excellent question.
If the contract manufacturer was in place in the UK then they would I'm sure have been used. As it is those clinical validation batches can still be made on pilot scale kit in a pilot plant provided that the pilot plant kit is representative of the final process. You will have seen (I think it was Endion) some video f the test strip machines. My view is as long as they are comparable then no problems.
Your question is one of the very few informed ones in days - thanks.
Ophidian
@Kaysee I would encourage you to listen to the Vox presentation at c. 15 mins. There they talk about the process post prototypes be it a simplified version. The manufacturers will produce the pilot batches for clinical validation. My understanding is it will be each manufacturer that does this, to prove consistency for reg approval.
As a side note, those that know GDR, they announced their tie up with Cytiva for their PCR bead test, an existing partner of theirs, on 22nd April. At that time they stated 5 weeks until product was on the market.
Cytiva ran pilot manufacturing batches by 1st May and the CE marked product was announced by 22nd May.
Total time 4 weeks and 1 day.
AVCT test being for consumer use may require a little longer but as i have said previously, the ehalthcare professional use, as laid down by the latest MHRA guidelines (see below) for POC tests, talks only about professional use. For me there should be no difference.
It may be that the consumer self-test version will require more validation in its intended setting but fro use in Hospitals and healthcare professional led POC, the process should be the same. Hence why a late August date should be well within reach.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895745/TPP_Point_of_Care_SARS-CoV-2_Detection_Tests.pdf
I fully expect that AVACTA will work with the UK Gov to support the scale up of manufacture. Certainly to levels required for hospitals, care homes, schools, airports etc. It's too important for the Gov not to support.
After these priority areas are covered additional scale up could be for direct to customer sales via medusa?
Maybe Cytiva/Danaher will deal with scale up in the US?
All to become clear in the next month or so I hope.
@Seaogsteve as far as I understand that test is the one they were interviewed about on Mad Money back in March 2020. I believe it is their own product.
Here's the VOX markets presentation. Not loved by some but still full of interesting information and thus useful.
Dated 12th June, the point at which it was known that AVCT had "a high level of confidence of having prototypes by the end of June."
Dr Smith still stating "clinical validation and regulatory approval as soon as possible in the summer."
In addition, on manufacturers he said ;
"Once we have those prototypes. . . the performance of those we can then evaluate and look at transferring to manufacturing. We are putting those manufacturing partner sin place in the UK right now."
Not trying to find but putting in place right now. 12th June update.
All part of the "as soon as possible in summer" process.
https://**********.brand.live/c/avacta-Investor-presentation
As I posted yesterday. Thermo Fisher have a large facility in the town where I live. They have just taken over another massive facility. On their website, under careers, they say they are gearing up to produce millions of Covid 19 tests.
Only sayin'