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Ties in nicely with the fauci interview yesterday, rapid tests could be ready within the next week or so:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52027201
21 seconds in
I suspect this tweet will be the catalyst now
The journey about to start
7% up as we speak
Cytiva's own website states the Avacta collaboration to be "Affimer-based point-of-care rapid screening test."
Klaus says 95% sensitivity is needed for such a test to be suitable for that job.
Exactly Jon
Avacta would be in a spot of bother regarding the ffp if this didn’t arrive
Carbon copy of Hemo
I’m so excited I’m taking the day off
@Wiggly You are absolutely correct and we can take that one step further and quote Klaus Hochleitner from the Labroots webinar ;
"We have to develop antigen tests that have a sensitivity that is much better than 95%, as it will not be useful for a screening test"
Since then they have achieved that with the other participant in that webinar, Sona Nanotech.
So when he says "very encouraged by the initial data" is then going to go and let himself down, by not achieving what he believes to be essentially his own minimum requirement?
As we discovered in the IG interview, this is a joint development between AVCT and Cytiva, with costs shared. Cytiva aren't just feeding a customer here.
Dare we dream. . .
I topped up this morning with hemo profits Doggy,
Vlads hintsand tweets were very similar to what is going on here.
I’ve just seen the tweet
Anybody with half a brain cell knows what’s coming
This is genuinely big news
They can’t tweet that and not have nothing
It’s coming exactly like Hemo
Hemo tweeted constantly and then look what happened
BBN,
You forgot to add that Cytiva also stated they were VERY encouraged by the initial performance data.
Absolutely no chance they would use the word VERY unless they felt extremely confident in their ability to deliver a high performance test.
Apologies, that should have read ;
"given that a "high performance test" was demonstrated as c. 95% sensitivity/ 98% specificity."
with that tweet I have a feeling we may have an intra day RNS
@Chartmy I fully appreciate that there will continue to be a level of anxiety for a good many investors, until such time the company has confirmed the clinical performance of the test(s).
However, I would once again remind everyone of what Dr Smith said in the 23rd June diagnostic test performance video, a video that was released 1 day prior to the working prototype announcement being released.
The latest MHRA guidance employed in the video was stated as being 80% sensitivity and 95% specificity. However Dr Smith stated that ;
"we are aiming to have a much higher performing test than that"
and that in AVCT's view ;
"the minimum hurdles for a rapid antigen test for use in the general population, are a sensitivity of +90% and a specificity of +95%"
But that further to this "we are aiming for a high performance test with both the LFT. . . and the laboratory based test (BAMS)"
Given how pragmatic Dr Smith is and that AVCT did not need to publish that video and the fact that they did it, one day prior to confirming that the lFT working prototype was working, the odds say the follwowing ;
1. The test is highly likely going to come to market.
2. It is highly likely going to beat the MHRA minimum requirements.
3. It is highly likely going to beat AVCT own minimum hurdles.
4. It has a very good chance of pushing even higher than this, given that a "high performance test" was demonstrated as c. 95% sensitivity/specificity.
Can I say that they will hit any of the above actions for certain? No. Hence why I say highly likely. Things can always go wrong.
However, the evidence is heavily hinting at a working prototype that as of 23rd June (day of the video release), was demonstrating sufficient performance criteria, as measured by both AVCT and Cytiva, that said video could be released and said above things could be said.
All of which is hammered home by the IG interview where Dr Smith talks about "expecting to sign up manufacturers very very soon." A statement made 8 days into the optimisation of the LFT.
That announcement must now be very close and its make up, the names, their production capacities, will go a long way to demonstrating what AVCT think about their test's performance.
Clinical studies will still be key but post optimisation and manufacturer sign up, the message will be very clear as to how marketable this LFT is going to be.
So yes lets please have that next update but the anxiety is very much focusing in on the smaller of the percentages here.
As we like tweets today another one courtesy of GDR - nice reminder on the asset potential !
https://twitter.com/glr_1990/status/1282961141963149312
last time we had a video day before news (to manage expectations).
this time we get a tweet? is it a sign? maybe?
We are off again
Couldn’t agree more. Biggest indication yet.
That's taken directly from the article AVCT retweeted 13thmonkey. Agreed I was quite surprised at that price range!
https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-observations/index.php/rapid-inexpensive-home-testing-for-covid-19-may-get-us-out-of-this-mess-before-a-vaccine/2020/07/05/
It is unthinkable that they would put out a tweet like that unless they were 100% sure they were going to market very soon. This isn't a tweet from a third party, it's from AVCT themselves. Very good news indeed.
Bring me the bacon oh and jam !
Jdt, 1-5 dollars, do you have a source for that? That's significantly lower than anything else we've seen.
I’m absolutely 100% sure they wouldn’t tweet that if they didn’t hit the targets they were hoping for . Imagine the come down . Alistair doesn’t come across to me like a guy who accepts failure . Good news as we all hope is imminent imo
Only a little tweet but it absolutely sends the right message.
Good find Bud_Fox. Interesting quote in there that gives an insight into potential pricing and also how key the S&S is to FDA approval:
Just shows how pivotal the optimisation process is to this product, all those out there shouting because its been "nearly 2 weeks". Rest assured they are working flat out to have this to the standard they need for FDA approval. LAst thing we need is a rushed, sub standard product to keep the rainbow chasing PI's happy that will need to go back to the drawing board....THEN THERE WILL BE DELAYS.
Coming out of this process with "best in class" reputation attached is just as important (if you are a LTH like most of us)
"Apparently, one thing that may be holding up FDA approval of these tests is that they are less sensitive than the PCR. That means they’re more likely than the PCR to miss someone who has COVID-19, wrongly giving a sense of reassurance from a false-negative result.
This is a legitimate concern, but one that should not block their urgent approval anyway. We should welcome these tests, even if less accurate, and broadly adopt them for widespread community use. Here’s why:
They will be cheap. Estimates are that they would cost between 1 and 5 dollars. That’s around the price of a cup of coffee.
They can be done on saliva. No brain biopsy required.
They can be done frequently. Every day for college students, or healthcare workers, or bus drivers? Every third day for everyone?
They will answer the key question — am I contagious to others right now?
Very interesting that Avacta retweeted this with such a positive comment. The original article is also fascinating and worth a read - there is plenty of competition worldwide for Avacta but also huge and ever-increasing potential markets. I am not sure why Avacta would retweet unless they were fairly sure that they are close to significant announcements. I have bought another 2875 this morning at £1.16 and will probably do the same later.
Great find thanks for sharing
https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-observations/index.php/rapid-inexpensive-home-testing-for-covid-19-may-get-us-out-of-this-mess-before-a-vaccine/2020/07/05/
Feels like they’re itching to get the test results out...
https://mobile.twitter.com/BudFoxAIM/status/1282957884469518342