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And richken I drive past about 4 or 5 cruise ships every day moored up on the Clyde just outside Glasgow they've been there about 2 months its crazy
Heathrow needs a AVCT test urgently
https://www.cityam.com/london-heathrow-passenger-numbers-plummet-more-than-80-per-cent-in-august/
I went past LHR yesterday on the M25, twice. Didn’t see a plane take off or land! It was so quiet!
Clearly people are not flying.
Oh and brexit
Airlines will be a good investment short term but imo air travel is risky, your governed by oil prices weak pound doesn't help as oil is in usd, terrorism, Lockerbie Sent Pan Am under, a plane crash and the sp will tank, recession and as we know a pandemic, I think carnival is a safer bet
and possibly the ships with some Deep verge too Infinity! Smelly Cruises Inc!
Hi Urban, AIG, very good business, profitable with a rock solid balance sheet before the CV nightmare. Due to their 'flag carrier' status I have always felt they will be at the front of the queue for UK/Irish/Spanish governmental support should they need it. Where Ryanair/Easyjet/Virgin will be left to fend for themselves.
Depending on the impact of an AVCT test, perhaps getting back to £2.70 could take a while but it wouldn't be unreasonable to see the SP get back to £1.50- £2 ish in the short term/Q1 2021.
Also agree that CC are a good bet, I'm quite close to the cruise space and the pre covid growth figures were exponential with many new ships under construction across the sector. Again, depending on the roll out speed of the AVCT test, I can see cruising recovering particularly quickly as contrary to the perception that ships are floating petri-dishes, conversely, with well managed testing, they could be seen as incredibly CV secure places from which to see the world.
Just see it as a hedge on a long term view of the possibility of normality returning one day and should testing levels begin to reduce in the long term. They are of course correlated in their direction well before then.
As you say, incredibly difficult to get the timing right on these . Inevitably would provide some impressive gains though down the line.
Why is it a hedge when you’d expect them to be positively correlated? Success for Awacta will result in success for airlines etc. At that point it’s about judging where the greater return is in percentage terms. Some of them have dropped by 2/3rds so there’s plenty upside. They won’t get immediately back to previous levels, but you could imagine them doubling in reasonably short order so as soon as you feel that the future growth of Awacta is less than double it’s worth shifting cash. No idea when that will be and if I tried I would get the timing right in a million years, but it’s something I’ll be monitoring.
Infinity- I put myself into AIG at the start of lockdown as I’d not expected things to pan out the way they have. Fortunately I took my medicine early and cut my loss. I am minded to go back in at some point and Carnival. As mentioned yesterday, a most appropriate hedge on a soaring Avacta.
Mentioned this yesterday, AIG could be worth a punt and would surely bounce on a positive AVCT RNS?
'IAG's shares fell 1.6% to 99.14p in response to the update. They changed hands for as much as £2.70 in January.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54642347
To much ridiculous deramping going on lol
Buy -hold. Or move on !!!
It’s a good question. But ultimately you would think avacta (at home) will replace the need for at airport testing to prevent spread.
QR scan of your negative test the morning of. Question is then how do you prove it was that morning. Rather than an old positive test.
Infinity beyond, somebody asked that on twitter this am I answered by saying maybe insurance companies may look into positive cases
infinity. I think it will be necessary to test on departure to get around the problem of handling a positive cases in arrival and enforceing cuarantine on arrival of entire plane passengers
I agree Sheltie but airlines and holiday companies will have to have a plan for what happens when a member of a travelling party tests positive? Imagine a family of 4 and one of the children tests positive? Even worse if this is in the return journey ?
They need a plan or families will be reluctant to travel.
sheltie. enjoy your trip. cyprus is nice.
I head to Stockholm this weekend. no test, no cuarantine there.and no masks. the closest to normality I will have seen in a long time.
3 days in Stockholm, then my partner and i take the 16 hour overnight sleeper train up to Kiruna , 100 miles north of the Arctic circle. Then another train north to a town called Abisko...population 85 people. I really want to feel social distanced in total wilderness.
People may need to get used to paying more for the test than the flight. I’m paying £199 for a test this weekend, for a £58.99 return flight to Cyprus! C’est la vie. No test - no flight! Pre-test flights will become as normal as having your hand luggage Passed through an X-ray machine, shoes off etc. I suspect it may well become yet another ‘normal’ pre-flight check.
Lamp test, short term solution
John Grant, director of OAG just on BBC news talking about testing at Heathrow
I'm not sure who's test it is but it's a 20 min test
When asked if it's a gamechanger he said " not really but it's something to get us moving again " he then went on and said that passengers will take the test, nip off to have a coffee or something then come back for the result
Brilliant one positive can infect others in the coffee shop and potentially a whole aircraft could get infected, my view is some sort of holding area outside the terminal building
Also the tests are £80 a pop as he said that's ok for long haul but for Italy it could be more than the airfare