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Now this is out there and the likes of Bruker are involved the Avacta story is going to start to unfold quickly now including any regulatory hold ups being 'pushed' along...Governments around the World are soooo worried about this coming Winter and economies cannot support another one or two full lockdowns...this is all great news and many thanks to those who managed to dig a little deeper with their research...big thumbs up.
Cheers CO another part of our great covid testing arsenal and a nice revenue stream steaming ahead.
Great to see it gearing up very nicely indeed.
*on available Bruker machines
Bloomin’ spool chucker’s at it again!
Nice to see the RNS now confirming research test launch - not at 7am on the button as usual, suggesting a reaction to it appearing and us noticing - good job team!
Agreed, they would not be running this test 100% of the time. Most MALDI-TOF machines are already very busy. Royaltairs typically 5-10% as stated by Avacta. FinnCap suggest 2-10% in their research note for one stream of royalties. So $1/test to Avacta seems reasonable. With your calculations which assume that ~1.4% of capacity on available a ruler machines is used, that would be about $2m/month.
Hopefully the kit works on other manufacturers’ machines as well, or else you would hope to see it released in tandem through these other manufacturers. Anyone know more on this compatibility issue?
The market for bams may have been underestimated by many, myself included.
Conservatively calculating 10% of machines worldwide buy 1000 tests per week at 12 dollars a test.
380 x 12000 = 4.5 million dollars per week.
How much royalty per test to avacta? I dont know but would assume a fair bit.
Someone mentioned 1 dollar on another thread, personally I would think it would be a good bit more.
Maybe someone more informed could hazard an estimate?
One benefit if BAMS is that many hospitals already have MS machines.... so can hit the ground running. BUT FOLKS.... hospitals in the UK and around the world can still buy MORE machines so that that can scale up ore-existing capacity even further. The potential market for Avacta/Adeptrix/Bruker/Other MS manufacturers is much bigger than we are seeing presently :-)
Yes Steelwatch200 Global figure "MALDI Biotyper installed base approximately 3,800 systems " as per presentation page 15 sorry for the confusion .
https://s22.q4cdn.com/617463959/files/doc_presentations/2020/01/Bruker-JPM-2020-Presentation-FINAL-10Jan20.pdf
A friend of mine is a doctor in A&E, he was told specifically not to download the new track and trace app as his would be pinging all day, if he does download it he was told to leave it in the car when at work. Apparently the hospital just don't have the bandwidth/resource to test their staff....BAMS would fix this over night!!!
Think 3800 would be world wide. NHS has 103 path labs
It would be a leap to suggest ALL of the machines in the country would be used for ONLY Covid testing with Affimers. A reasonable estimate might be 25% of machines and if you believe the claims that the NHS is rapidly becoming the Covid Health Service, perhaps you to 50%. But this is only one country in a global market.
PL - Looool
So, 3800 installed systems in the UK, each capable of running 1000 tests per day via a single technician? This would enable 3.8m tests per day.
This also would be suitable for mass screening, assuming Salivia samples could be collected easily direct from homes. Were Amazon not bidding on this logistics project?
Suppose it's ok as a cheeky sideline....
MALDI Biotyper installed base approximately 3,800 systems
We've all seen the fantastic news regarding BAMS, the Bruker link is truly exceptional.
Now that is clear that BAMS is progressing well, it's interesting to learn how many MS machines there are in the UK...
Check out the tweet below which links to a Freedom of Information request that asked how many hospitals in Mid-Cheshire were using MS machines for Diagnostic purposes (Very clever if it was someone on the forum!!).
The link highlights that the answer is A LOT. In the Mid-Cheshire area alone there appears to be around 8 MS machines that are used for Diagnostic purposes.
A conservative estimate would be maybe 100 machines nationally (It could be much higher based on the info within the tweet).
As per CEO, the MS machines could perform 1000 tests per day. So that is 100,000 tests per day - Just in the UK.
The current price of the research only BAMS assay is $15 each. If we were to conservatively say the final assay will cost £10 each. That is £1,000,000 revenue per day.
BAMS could provide £30,000,000 revenue per month, £360,000,000 per month from just the UK!!
Very exciting!!
https://twitter.com/mattwar47152646/status/1311210686819823618?s=21