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Amidst today’s goings on two vital bits of the puzzle have bene missed I think.
Firstly there is a concerted effort to utilise mass spectrometry machines for testing – see the below coalition. This suggest to me that the actual workings of the facility for testing is of no concern and so I expect this to land swiftly and be a very significant RNS.
https://b-s-h.org.uk/about-us/news/scientists-global-coalition-to-share-covid-19-mass-spectrometry-data/
Furthermore the ACE2 point within one of the more recent RNS with the indication that Az or GSK may be interested is again based on widely regarded science and so the rationale behind what AVCT are pursuing is very much game on.
https://www.wired.com/story/meet-ace2-the-enzyme-at-the-center-of-the-covid-19-mystery/
As a result I see two very positive RNS coming out of these in the near future.
With much time being spent on Medusa19 it would indicate that there is high hopes of a product to sell and the global connections of the Medusa team will be vital in hitting the ground running. For the likes of Genedrive it would appear they are starting with the idea of getting local distributors who would have their own connections. The benefit of Medusa is they can go straight to the highest political levels to galvanise action.
The UK’s test and trace debacle and the ongoing needs for testing and the global pandemic still in full throttle despite the view that the UK is past the worst – really reinforces that testing will have a place in the foreseeable and there is absolutely no indication that CV has gone/is going/mutating to be less aggressive
I don't think that would be the case as the importance of the testing requirement will be a priority. They will not be made to hold back progress. That would be defined in the previous agreements.
The transaction on the new partnership would have to be seen as a new and separate transaction to which the new partner would have to buy at the market price. That could be why the price as been driven down? I don't think so though.
The timing on the two other partnerships with Cytiva and Adeptrix is going to be determined by success and approvals. As soon as that is achieved it is vital that those projects are activated immediately for the good of the planet.
Any new partnership will join with the knowledge all existing partnerships in place and the opportunities for the business to succeed!
That is good for all of us!
Cheers, RK
Hi RK, if that is the case then any other news maybe held back to allow for their position to be built.
Dmu
From my thread earlier, I would like to share some thoughts on the potentially huge partnership for announced on the 15th May and especially this point:
"Large pharmaceutical companies, such as AstraZeneca and GSK, are now starting programmes to develop neutralising antibodies in an attempt to block the SARS-COV-2 spike protein’s interaction with ACE2. Avacta has now demonstrated that several Affimer reagents also perform this blocking function and the Company is now seeking a partner that has the resources available to develop a neutralising Affimer therapy as quickly as possible."
So, the thoughts on this partnership may well go beyond the pre-CISION Affimer technology for blocking the SARS-COV2 virus. The new partner may well want to work on the cancer therapeutic treatments too and build this into a long-term relationship. This will mean a potential cash injection to Avacta and additional capacity and support provided by the global pharmaceutical giant. The terms and legalities of this transaction will be complex and deep-reaching. This brings me to the real nitty-gritty. Will the “pharma giant” decide to take the partnership to a new level by taking a stake and buying a percentage of the shares in the business in return for a deep long-term relationship. The opportunity for both companies to be able to benefit from such an agreement would be far-reaching and may well be good for investors too.
In these times and with the opportunity for pre-CISION this is a strong possibility in my opinion. These are only thoughts but in business and company development this is a possible outcome.
I am sure many may also have thoughts on who this may unfold.
Cheers,
RK
The key will be the specificity/sensitivity
Anything over 98% according to FIND can be used to screen mass populations confidently
If AVCT LFD has over 98% this market cap is long long gone
Interesting post. Was wondering if they get both prototype tests ready this week, lets say, then how long from then to actual approved test for manufacture if all goes well? I thinl the regulatory approval bit should be really quick - even FDA approvals often coming in a day or less
Yep so we should have BAMS news any day and all being well Cytiva next week. Exciting times and amazing some are selling but I guess profit is profit.
Hi RB40
That is true the interview stated a 'few weeks' to me that is 3 weeks approx, which is today, so expecting some news hopefully this week however Cytiva do have their finger in a lot of pies (GDR for example, and Sonananotech) Not sure on their resource, they are huge after all but I wouldn't be too surprised with a short delay given the importance of the projects(s)
The BAMS test however should not be delayed hopefully and we should get some news about that I am hoping again this week
How quick investors are to forget that the timescale for developing the affimers was End of May, although some may think we are experiencing a short delay, we are actually WAY ahead of schedule
Didn’t Alastair say the expectation was for the prototypes to take 3 weeks and BAMS more likely the first one to to developed to the required standard? If so it’s 3 weeks today when Adeptrix and Cytiva would’ve received them so hopefully BAMS news this week (I imagine closely followed by manufacturer deals being signed and RNS’d) and not long after Cytiva. So I’m not sure why you think -
1. BAMS with Adeptrix – this is due first as it is much easier to develop and certify. This was announced on the 1st May and the Affimers shipped on 11th May. If we say 6 weeks then 20th June would be likely the date.
2. LFA with Cytiva – This was announced on the 8th April and the Affimers were shipped on 11th May as above. If this takes 8 weeks to prototype, develop and certify which is fast, then we would see a date of around 6th July.
That is good to know PL75! Glad to bring cheer to the ear!
Doom merchant? Far from it, it's music to my ears as a scummy capitalist pig. We're here to make cash aren't we?
I agree this pandemic is far from over. The reason governments are coming out of lockdown is not for our safety, it because the global economy will go into meltdown if people don't get back to work! We need food, power, water, chemicals, minerals and everything else. If you remove spokes out of the wheel it will fail and you will crash. So we have to go back to work even if there is as governments call it collateral damage. That is people dying and the virus spreading. The world cannot stop for long otherwise we have a real problem. This is why the current advice is no conclusive. The real advice is to stay at home if you can (afford too). Otherwise, go to work and be careful. Except people are complacent and this leads to the virus spreading. Everyone should wear masks but they don't, everyone should wear gloves but they don't. Everyone should keep a distance but they don't. The results will be a second wave and testing and tracing capability will be really ready for mass testing and production by the end of July. The start of the second global lockdown. The US will be in a major mess by then, let alone other parts of the world.
Our test will be in huge demand and it may be the only admission to the world if you test negative on that day.
The pressure on a treatment development like our Affimer therapeutic blocker to get into production will likely be huge.
So to sum up, people may be fickle and think we are over this. Far from it! Avacta are going to have everything in place needed to be ready. They know it, Cytiva know it and so do AZ and GSK and any other partner currently in discussions with Avacta.
Anyone thinking they have missed the opportunity to grow their investment here look likely to be incorrect. We don't have crystal balls or the ability to prophesy what is going to happen but there is no cure now and seeing how quickly it spread before lockdown. It will very likely happen again as more people are exposed.
Sorry for being a doom merchant today, but it is how I see it and investors need to stick by there understanding of Avacta's potential and fundamentals with great partnerships.
Cheers, RK
Suggest you take a look at SNG, up nearly 15%. Yes I do hold both here and there.
Todays shenanigans will quickly be forgotten about when news drops.
Like many, I've had thousands of pounds knocked off my 'paper profits' over the past few days. I'm no mole catcher, so I'm not in that league but nevertheless it's horrible to watch.
Still at a healthy profit, and I would be lying if I said the thought of taking my money and running didn't cross my mind as I watched the SP drop. I'm very exposed due to having so much invested here vs my other holdings. And yes, I know it's a risky move.
It really helps to revisit the fundamentals and remember why you invested in the first place. As we all keep stating, nothing has changed. New cases of Covid-19 are reaching new highs globally and with limited testing in so many countries, it's probably even worse than we realise. The LFD development is with Cytiva and we just need to wait it out. In the meantime, there's other potential sources of news and IMO it's very likely we will get something very soon.
Pretty much all the 'Covid' related stocks are down today and the market seems to be backing the old favourites like the 'defensive stocks' goodness only knows why, you look at the FTSE and you'd think we were just coming out of a recession not going into one.
This was 23p in April. It cannot keep going up for ever. Profit takers will always cash out some stock
So apparently being unable to see into the future counts as "deramping". What kind of special moron must it take to hold that view... I hope Chengdo4's carer doesn't have to self-isolate or they might have to start feeding and dressing themselves.
In case it wasn't immediately obvious, I am very much long here
The SP's peak at just over 2 quid has coincided with the rush to try and get back to some kind of normality at the start of June, with governments realizing their lockdowns have done irreparable damage to the productive economy, by a virus that has killed around 0.0006% of the UK population. If that isn't madness personified, I dunno what is.
There could be, and I hope there will be, but it's impossible to predict when so I won't be selling. The best thing I can do for my own sanity is stop checking the prices and boards
they'll be news sooner than "another month away"
RK Thanks for sharing your thoughts
Can't fault a thing you've said, but it is galling to think that this share will have a succession of nibbles taken out of the SP until that news arrives, and it could be another month away
Part 2
As humans, we are impatient with each other, frustrated by restrictions, and easily complacent when we meet with our friends and families and especially with work colleagues as it is too easy to forget that we have a silent killer around us. If we don’t respect what we already know then this will become a whole lot worse. In the US we have a terrible situation which will increase the spread dramatically, so the needs are going to be much higher.
As investors in Avacta we know what is happening and we know we have a great solution, we just await confirmations.
We may see new partnerships, and this will be good too.
I hope these musings help!
Cheers, RK
Part 1
Today’s movements are not entirely out of characteristics with a developing business especially one which is about to be very successful. There are always going to be quiet news times and we knew they were coming. In fact, it has been surprising we have had additional news items which most would not have expected. So Avacta has actually been doing a very good job to the point where they know have to wait like everyone else. The only job in hand for Avacta at this point apart from ensuring they have a good supply of the correct Affimers is to develop and produce one of the key partnerships for there future. This is the one with a major pharmaceutical giant using the Affimer reagents to block the interaction between the virus’ spike protein and ACE2, a receptor on human cells that is key to the virus infection pathway which will indeed stop the virus in its tracts! This is the big partnership and for a Biotech company to get the right partnership with terms which suit both parties will be a tough challenge. If you want to know what Alastair Smith is doing at the moment, that would be my hunch. He will be working with his negotiating team and their lawyers formulating a detailed partnership agreement which will suit both parties and ensure a route to market and certification as quickly as possible. This will be something which takes time, let alone the actual development and certification to use as a virus treatment program which will definitely have a huge global impact. Assuming that we get news of this new partnership soon and it takes 6 to 8 months to market, that means now virus blocker until January to March 2021.
Now in the meantime we have our two tests.
1. BAMS with Adeptrix – this is due first as it is much easier to develop and certify. This was announced on the 1st May and the Affimers shipped on 11th May. If we say 6 weeks then 20th June would be likely the date.
2. LFA with Cytiva – This was announced on the 8th April and the Affimers were shipped on 11th May as above. If this takes 8 weeks to prototype, develop and certify which is fast, then we would see a date of around 6th July.
Investors have to understand that even with a global pandemic these developments take time.
Given we will likely be in a second lockdown by then this is going to be a massive step change and a route to a solution until reliable and safe therapeutics are ready.