Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Have listened to the presentation again. What a fantastic British opportunity this is. So many potential revenue streams in addition to the LFT. I really didn't expect the opportunity to top up at under 250p. 240p is now the highest price I have paid and, in view of the de-risking of the Affimer IP, I truly believe this is now in bargain territory to a greater extent than at all my previous top ups. Sorry if this appears to be a massive ramp but, short of an overall market crash, I think the downside must be extremely limited at this point in time. Really hoping that a Big Pharma takeover can be avoided, at least in the short term i.e. before the oncology breakthrough has been firmly established.
Also worth pointing out that we were also given confirmation that Mologic had been working on our LFT architecture (outside of the S-N 2nd gen test). The originators of the pregnancy test have sacrificed not only manufacturing capacity and low mid income country sales (though at low margins if at all) but now their own test's commercial success by improving a competitor's product. Chris Malloy (key DHSC figure if I remember correctly) commented on a LinkedIn post a while back I believe about companies dropping commercial rivalry for the sake of the better good - this is surely what he was talking about.
Worked with a number of partners, both disclosed and undisclosed!
Other UK manufacturers that we would hope to access, as well as overseas.
To give some guidance, he actually says volumes could EASILY reach 30m in UK, so I suspect UK will end up by far higher.
GAD are already producing first commercial batches....
https://www.bbnbigbitenow.com/post/under-the-base-case-avacta-has-a-great-case
yes scrub that, maybe I should have a drink. apologies all.
The green box is clearly financially illiterate. Ignore it. I'll stick with this...
Literally any LFD volume from here on in transforms the business. 12 months at the absolute minimum provides funding for over half a decade. They will 'shortly' be a self sustaining oncology business with a huge pipeline of candidates with a massive cash pile to expedite progress. How 'concerning'
Sorry for typos. Fat fingers and walking the dog. You get it tho eh Wyndrum
5 million tests at estimated £6 per test
£30 m revenue...........your £1 m profit
3.3%
Hmmmmmmm?
I quote "If the UK ordered 5m test per month at a profit of £1m that would be £12m per annum"
£1m/5m tests = tadaaaa 20p profit per test.
So if your £1m profit is a 20% margin, you are assuming the test sell for £1??? We know that is not going to be the case.
Wyndham, if its 20% then put in the proper value if 5m tests. £25m and then 29% of that. Dont twist things to suit your agenda
What a pudding ! My estimates of income from the stated UK manufacturing capacity (overseas manufacturing extra) will be between 90 and 540 million per annum.
PAH, its 20%. not 20p
We have not got any figures to work from on the profit margin so my guess is as accurate as one else's right now.
And I think based on everything that has occurred thus far that we should err on the side of caution in our expectations.
Wyndrum have you been on the sauce early on this sunny day?
Firstly, at what point did you decide UK manufacturing capacity is going to be sold in the UK to the govt? The 5m will be for Europe and then the extra is if they get access to govt equipment.
Secondly, do you not think cash burn decelerates as you have the product to market?
Thirdly, 20p profit per test, are you mad? We were told price point of mid single figures so £5-7, you think it costs £5-7 to make one?
I did some numbers already....
https://twitter.com/YorkshirPuddin/status/1385534351010566145
Another thread ruined by a green box. Ah well....
The share is not completely de-risked until a substantial order(s) is/are produced.
The UK at present, is on top of the Pandemic and it will be instructive as to how many tests will be needed going forward if the current trend down in positive cases continues. (I think that's where the 5m/month comes from and extra capacity will only be needed if the 3rd wave arrives )
If the UK ordered 5m test per month at a profit of £1m that would be £12m per annum and further funding could be necessary in around 12-18 months.
Breakeven on current cash burn looks to be about 10m test per month. I know we can play with figures and margins but I think a more conservative approach should be assumed until we actually have figures that can allow more accurate calculations to take place.
Hopefully there will be global demand for this test that will propel this stock quickly upwards, but I feel a bit like the market now: Show me the money, please.
Fair point I&B, correction - things will probably move quickly now they have the performance data which has completely derisked this share. Literally any LFD volume from here on in transforms the business. 12 months at the absolute minimum provides funding for over half a decade. They will 'shortly' be a self sustaining oncology business with a huge pipeline of candidates with a massive cash pile to expedite progress. How 'concerning'
thanks - getting truly fed up of some of the negative threads with derampers on them - this is a balm. I though inking contracts was a really good phrase - it suggests that some have been teed up and were just waiting for something - most likely in terms of manufacturers they don't need to wait for the formality of the CE and just needed the confirmation of excellent performance which was given on tuesday and elaborated on yesterday. Logically they should be inking this week or next to crack on with meeting the already substantial demand
Good summary richob
Nice one Richob. As PL says much better than the other threads. These people with such concerns - you have to feel for them when you see what the share price has done over the last year. The year that they describe as having been so poorly managed by Al.
Bump.... thanks Richob, much better than the other threads bickering with morons inventing 'concerns'. I thought it was an excellent presentation. The sheer volume of opportunities is incredible and one by one they're being unlocked. I'd like to add 'inking contracts' to the phrasebook as that's instantly replaced signing contracts. Hope PresAl has enough ink as it sounds like everything will move quickly once the CE mark is in the bag.
Thanks Richob for summary & PJT12 for highlighting possible USA clinical trial IND filing .
Liked the AVA6000 section ( Not sure if Avacta will give a running commentary on trial progress however should be evident in first patients dosed whether AVA6000 is working as planned . )
For those that missed presentation hope this link works .
https://presentations.investormeetcompany.com/investor-meet-company/AVACTA-GROUP-PLC-Full-year-12-month-results-ending-on-31st-Dec-2020?bmid=82aa876ce1e1
I was too embarrassed to ask yesterday but 'What the hell?' I can't be the only thickie on here:
IND Filing means the filing of an Investigational New Drug Application (as defined in 21 C.F.R. 312 or any successor regulation) with the FDA or the equivalent application or filing filed with any equivalent agency or governmental authority in the European Union necessary to commence human clinical trials in such jurisdiction.
Made a few notes yesterday for anyone interested in elephants:
£48m in the bank
Fully funded into 2023 excluding revenues
10 minute read on the LFT
Detects SA variant as well
Some undisclosed partners
Capacity excluding these is 5-30m per month
GAD have already produced batches
Alternative uses for BAMS as PCR use falling
ELISA equals Abcam but not exclusively
Affinity equals Astrea
AVA6000 in six named UK hospitals
AVA6000 also for US sites ahead of IND filing
FAP activity
AVA prodrug pipeline
Future pandemic preparedness
Commercially driven revenues
Massive European interest in the LFT
Does anybody need any more elephants to discuss?
Onwards Avacta.