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I think much of this is right; I think also frustrations do have a basis in reality, and following on from your posts above, I think Avacta made two strategic mistakes:
- An overarching focus on Saliva from the off: I think this was because its a 'big' challenge that Avacta felt their tech could (and still can) address and that this thinking was propelled by a management team heavily comprised of scientists all up for that challenge. With the benefit of hindsight, I think it would have made better sense from a risk management POV to have worked with A/N swabs from the start to get a quality product to market ASAP, while developing the Saliva version in parallel (effectively what we are now doing).
- Failing to involve a manufacturing partner from the initial design stages to avoid the delays we have seen in Tech Xfer: Cytiva are supplying the strip - which is one several key components - yet have undertaken the bulk of the engineering work on the product. The result, IMO, has been key 'design for manufacture' constraints have been overlooked, so while Cytiva have delivered a functioning prototype, it has proven unsuitable for mass production; issues a partner like BBI would have picked up at the initial design stage. Perhaps it was more of a case that Avacta needed the 'buy-in' of a big player like Cytiva to get in the door with BBI, I guess one day we will find out.
Anyhow, now a manufactured prototype is complete we are over the hill with this area of work - I imagine the newsflow will gather pace rather quickly from this point.
The emphasis on scalability from readily accessible parts was the key takeaway from the RNS for me - it sounds ideal if you are looking to enter global licensing agreement with regional manufacturers.
With another £7 Billion committed to LFT's in the UK yesterday and Biden entering the White House calling for 'mass testing' in January, I think we are very well positioned form this point.
Arnold Palmer - thanks for your comments. Much appreciated
I fully accept your thoughts about Cytiva’s input with the strip and thank you for clarifying that. A useful point.
PS Do you play as well as your handle implies?!
The dust is very slowly settling after the latest RNS/interview.
The share price has taken a kicking.
The RNS was gently positive, aimed at reassuring investors that progress is being made and all will be well.
But, investor expectations had become very high and there was nothing of sufficiently powerful, immediate impact in the RNS that could possibly satisfy those high expectations.
Unsurprisingly, as expectations had not been managed, investor disappointment showed itself in a large sell off.
The perception was of further delay and the suspicion grew that successful tests might never be produced.
My very amateur view - which people might well disagree with, is this:
Cytiva turned out to be a very unsatisfactory partner and caused many months of delay whilst achieving very little. They put a successful outcome back by that period.
Saliva samples have been found by the whole industry to be extremely difficult to utilise in LFT’s. Anterior nasal samples are a good alternative and seem to offer very promising results. Presumably, a saliva version will follow later if successful.
Perhaps the plug should have been pulled earlier on Cytiva - but we don’t know enough of the surrounding circumstances (eg the contractual position) etc to say that with certainty.
BBI, having replaced Cytiva, seem to have moved with tremendous efficiency since then to produce a workable U.K. sovereign test which has a realistic chance of succeeding - with potentially excellent S/S and reliability, and with the potential to identify asymptomatic cases.
It is likely to gain accreditation and be vastly more accurate than the inferior Innova test which the government, in desperation to show its readiness to embrace the new technology, has unfortunately bought in vast numbers. The likes of Professor Deeks and others will soon enough demonstrate the inadequacies - and maybe even dangers - of relying on inadequate tests , and the public will become aware of this....and thus more receptive to a very superior product from Avacta when it arrives ‘soon’ - query, by mid/late December or maybe early January?
The boat has not sailed. The market is unquenchable and will remain large even after mass vaccination has been achieved. To date, no one has been able to give strong reassurance that vaccinated people will not be spreaders of the virus. Testing will be with us for years to come - worldwide.
My own take is that it is a great shame that Cytiva held us back for so long - and that the pitiful government tardiness and bureaucracy in the Condor scheme etc has delayed matters further. Much revenue has been lost.
But - vast revenues remain to be secured.
With a little good fortune and continuing hard work, Avacta will be a huge success on many fronts, whether Covid or cancer therapy related - and in other applications, too.
2021 will, IMHO, DYOR etc etc, turn out to be a first class investment year for holders of Avacta shares