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Odd he mentions the fall in price. What about the original huge rise ? Not checked but I think still a lot higher than it was.
£10+
£5 a share
https://youtu.be/WHwTHarf8Ck
Here is an example, depends on material and setting time, but gives an example of what is out there.
I'm an x injection mould toolmaker, and I can tell you it will like shelling peas. The moulds already exist for the cartridges as they should be a standard design.
Seems DonaldDucker has issues but won't reveal his/her usual name
Picarhartes yes I'm aware of the bams option but we still await its approval. I've no doubt you know what I mean but I'm attempting to talk Avacta on an Avacta board whilst remaining balanced. Enjoyed your response re affirmer by the way.
What older and wiser just said - not a static market - indeed the aim is to not have a market
O&W, this might make you smile...
https://youtu.be/xgqa40iRbL4
Kbiztbiz,
I hadn't seen your stab at a forward earnings projection before, which came out at £3 sp. All I can say is that you assume a static scenario post-POC rapid test being accepted universally in the global marketplace, whereby the pre-Covid19 environment persists, and therefore you add on the original £100mn valuation for the non-diagnostics part. But the world won't stand still, for Avacta and the Affimer proprietary technology in this take-up scenario. Affimers would be firmly established on the world biotech stage, with major pharmas beating a path to AVCT's door. The Ablynx buyout valuation springs to mind as a possible end value for their therapeutics division, whilst rapid POC tests using the Affimer reagent technology would be requested and developed for a multitude of globally vicious infectious diseases. Surely that is the very essence of "disruptive technology". You cannot place a static valuation based on a year or two of transitory earnings on it.
Hey CO you lost me at "RD - you’re welcome, and it’s just an Excel model, using the Rand() function to randomise".
To be honest I've heard front a friends brother there is a global shortage of excel spreadsheets. The government are telling anyone in case they set off a panic but I'm going to dig out my copy of lotus 1-2-3.
@Wilson63: "As usual for clarity I'm in the pcr option as well as this."
Aren't Avacta as well with Adeptrix BAMS deal?
Share price predictions Sept 2020?
There’s clearly no issue in producing billions of bits of plastic, the ocean is full of the stuff. What are the constraints in global test strip production?
Kbizbiz, what do you know about fast cycling injection moulding?
This is a way of mass production of LFD.
Cheers RK
It will come down to:
Cost
Speed of result
Reduction of infrastructure
Test can be completed by non medically trained personel
This test will give results in less than 10 minutes!
Why waste money on anything that needs more resources or cost. It makes no sense.
Cheers RK
Agreed, thanks again CO, for your efforts and for getting everyone thinking. Mainly because it’s a long weekend and I needed some numbers to look at in the absence of the share price fluctuations. Roll on Tues and hopefully the next piece of the puzzle!
Avacta won't ever make £10 profit per test. The current high end is a pointless scenario.
I would suggest recreating the L/M/H scenarios with £1/£2/£4, and then applying your risk factor.
I haven't read through all the responses but production capabilities will likely be a limiting factors also, and we should factor in the revenue from the other product streams. Will get the spready out and produce some mkt cap/sp numbers based on the info in this thread this eve for comparison.
@Cautious a productive and constructive thread, thanks
@C - fair enough but we are not modelling a reservoir Pn successful. Im an engineer and want a +/- 50% estimate. Either way I hope both you and Kbiz are near the mark.
PL75 I get that but we all know there's a difference between a good and bad test.
RK, agree with this ‘This is for as long as the virus is active and needs people to self isolate’. I think there’ll be an initial clamour for mass screening, but once the r0 is low, the usage will drop to test coughs and control outbreaks. The ongoing exception would be air travel to reopen borders.
The other exception will be Al when he goes to see the queen to become Sir Al
Not so sure, the UK govt chucked 3.5m dodgy tests in the bin pretty quick. They want the best, fastest antigen test they can get.
Richken I hope you are correct with your assumption re changing testing on the planet. I think govt's that have committed to programmes may be hard to budge.
As usual for clarity I'm in the pcr option as well as this.
@minimil:
Although the numbers from kbiz do give an answer that lies somewhere in the middle of the range I estimated, in turn I would challenge them... His/her estimate is saying we’ll have 60bln tests per year globally, of which Avacta provide 6bln at 10p profit each. This would be 3x current global LFD production, per KingKitega below, and that’s assuming all the other tests on the market can be produced by other means, which is unlikely. Secondly, Avacta have published preliminary pricing information in their recent webcast presentation and it informs my base case estimates. But then - all respect to their effort. It’s easier to pick holes in an estimate than produce it in the first place!
The high/low cases are deliberately extreme. That’s the nature of estimating uncertainty on a range, you have to think well outside the base case. Reality doesn’t always unfold according to expectations!
PL75, one point, of course the exercise was for fun, but if numbers do get that high and to keep the world safe, that number of tests would easily be needed! If the numbers were that high then, the production costs would fall and so would profit. But it would be still highly advantageous to Avacta.
This test is likely to become the reference test for attendance and travel around the world unless the test results can be brought down to less than a minute by any company! This is for as long as the virus is active and needs people to self isolate. Once we have a reliable treatment in place and the risk is the same as common cold it will change.
But, the need for other types of diagnostics will continue and that market is the $9 billion mentioned by Avacta in there recent news article.
But I am sure this test will pass certification as the LFD works, the Affimer technology works, so the test will work. It is just certification that need to be completed.
The only question we have is when will that process be complete, within a few weeks. But the day it does will change the course of testing for the planet. A low cost accurate test with a result in minutes. That is the fact that for now we need to focus on... the rest is what will be.
Cheers RK