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Lazy punter - I was quite fascinated by your analogy of a horse racing punt versus a share, which are in fact similar looking at the work up behind the scenes of the race, with added trust on the trainers and track. .
Glad that the odds of the race are in favour of our horse (AVCT) . I may add Ggp in the same league. With respect to the SP I agree that 200/250 is the new 150 . I recall that the same happened sub 150 levels when many were regretting not getting in at sub 120 levels..
Good that you are putting your bankers and horse racing experience into making share choices and to emerge as a winner. Let us gallop ahead
Cheers
MKumar
Dear MKumar...Thank you for your reply...My view on the saliva test is we have to be able to trust the CEO of Avacta...if we do not , it becomes difficult to invest anymore...also, if we know 100% that the saliva test really is the real deal, the price of Avacta will be on another planet and beyond most LTH...Of course we need to have faith but paradoxically, the more expensive the shares become the greater anxiety early holders have ...it’s like backing a horse...you have studied the form , it’s competitors, the trainers, the track etc etc ...but in order to make a profit you have to put your money on before the race starts....once your money has been placed it’s all out of your hands.
I have made my money by successfully beating the bookmakers...you will always here the same “ the bookies always win”... they don’t always win because they have to bet on every race by the rules of their licence, whereas I can decide when to bet....I know when the odds are in my favour....on balance the odds with Avacta are now in our favour ...the rising price is the fact that current holders are sticking and the supply of shares are reducing...its basic supply and demand..Of course we could all be wrong but that’s the risk we take.....but the power of the cancer treatment Exocet missile , is in the hands of Avacta ...is the main reason I got involved ...We are still good enough without CV ...with CV this horse is in my view is the one to beat....There May be other runners who get out in front of Avacta ..but it’s only in the final 100 yards that the winners emerge from the pack to win their race ...there will be many other contenders trying to win the race but if the form Avacta has been showing on the home gallops , is translated to the track , there is only going to one winner in my view.
Finally, do not be put off by the current price, because , if we get to £2.50 by Thursday and you have not bought more at sub £2 , you will kick yourself ...you will never get the entry point at the right price but as long as you get the shares, when we get the right news it will not matter....
Yes, I am `GGP and once again I trust all the directors there and in NC...they are not bxll shxtters..and whilst I did my research the shares went up 50% but I needed to know GH was genuine and trustworthy, I believe he is and that’s counts for so much.
ATB.LP
Thxs Lazypunter for your posts.
I liked the fact that you dont put money in without research and trust , and have this rule from the time you were a banker . Many people are here are pondering wether to invest further next week ,as they are still deciding if the saliva test is going to be sensitive enough ( thus adding a potential risk factor).
Like you and Rich ken I believe in Avct in general and its potential, but what is your take on the saliva test ?? and is it not also important to consider before investing any further( based on spreading the risk principle).
By the way glad to see your posts on Ggp BB too .
M Kumar
Lazy punter lol I wish I had been so sensible to diversify my portfolio in the past I failed to top slice when I was way up TWICE it won't happen a third time, However I won't top slice too early:)
Wilson 63...Make no mistake I have done plenty of my own research and I happy as a holder here...I fact I am intending to buy substantially more Avacta next week as it’s got to a point now where I believe it’s going to move substantially higher ..if I am wrong it will not kill me , as Avacta is part of my portfolio and I would not put all my eggs in a basket of a few shares....Personally, I think a portfolio of 10-15 shares in plenty , it’s just a matter of weighting the money in proportion to each share , as no two companies are the same..Additionally, in my business , I know how to evaluate risk and far too many investors do not like losing....once you accept the risk that you could lose all your money on any share on AIM , it’s easier.
An earlier contributor stated previously that as a result of CV no share is 100% .
Before CV imagine the BOD being asked by their chairman to write a business plan where they have to close down for 3 months, a fall off on demand and a fall off in supply..it would be akin to asking a cafe owner in Hiroshime for his fiscal strategy if the Americans drop an atomic bomb ...it’s impossible to produce such a fiscal strategy but as a result of CV a small number of investors will own shares in a small number of companies whose products will change the future of everyone on the planet....and it will change the lives of those smart investors who bought into those life changing companies .
We all have a choice but the vast majority of the population know as much about money and investing as I know about the amount of money in every bank account in Switzerland .LP
As the share price grows a lot of companies have a scrip issue giving shareholders some free shares to drop the price to make it more attractive to small private investors .
For balance lazy you should always Dyor however going on a board and (not verbatim) saying if your going to buy in the morning press recommend, then being completely out within 3/4 days is at best a miscalculation? As I said at the start of the post dyor . I await the bmx crew response yes I know I said bmx.
Doggy. Novacyt? What that? Lol sorry. The only other share I been in is eua. Suspended at the mo.
£15 + IF everything goes seamlessly with our test.
I mostly made my fortune in fedex. Heard of it? But to be honest really fast paced. Want something slower. But big rewards.
Correct
Sold my Novacyt for nice profit on Friday and bought £8k tizania at 96
Feeling lucky next week
You again? Obviously you in both.
Going places like Pluto and Jupiter bud.
Any info would be appreciated. Just been shot down on gdr board. Is avct going place’s?
Dear Richken...I am sure I speak for many on this and other BB’s...I offer you my greatest thanks for the contributions you have made...I literally have read 1000.s of your postings going back some years.
You remind me contributor to a paper/magazine from when I was younger...that gentleman was incredibly successful in his field and his writings were both educational and informative.
Anyone can learn so much from what you write as your generosity to show potential investors where they can find invaluable information to complete their research is invaluable and I thank you for all you have done here for Avacta and BMN investors .
I know many here are guided by you here because they lack business experience ...that is not a problem for me , but I have been in business for years and have been relatively successful in my career....and have made my own decisions about where I invest my money.
Like you I have money in Fundsmith Equity..where a substantial amount of pension Sipp is invested ..however, 35% of my pension money I control with me making my own pension decisions.
DYOR is vital but anyone with time and motivation can nowadays do research far beyond what was possible when you and I were younger..,.provided all potential investors do their research, it’s clear to me companies like Avacta .and others really can change the world we live in.
I know the vast majority of guys here want the best for their families and a better lifestyle for all....none of us knows the potential for Avacta because the future is still ahead of us but I do know the financial cost to every country of CV is mind boggling...and if Avacta can achieve their potential and I do not doubt they will....working class guys like me will be screaming with delight.
Further, once we have cash ringing in our tills and profits in the Avacta bank account ...our JV with Cytiva will be much more valuable than most posters here believe...it was shrewd of CEO AC to team up with a USA company because Wall Street will be knocking our door down...If Avacta tests save the USA economy as it will save ours and others , make no mistake Avacta with a USA stock quote , will dwarf a UK stock quote..To put the size of the UK stock market into prospective it needs to be appreciated that Amazon and Google together are worth more than every UK stock market company in total ...Avacta with a USA quote will get a quotation that will make every decent holder here wealth beyond their wildest dreams ..but first we need to get the money flowing.
I came here late as I spent a long time doing my research but I never invest until I am happy with my research and as a former banker the golden rule in business is only do business with men or women who you can trust...we all know AIM is full of dubious characters but when you watch numerous videos , read posts like yours ..which are invaluable for all here, it’s clear there are brilliant companies like Avacta that are going to change the world .LP
13thmonkey, it is more than the chemistry and biology works - they must be combined, to work together, consistently and accurately on a non-skilled consumer device to provide the final reliable result. That is what will take the time hence Alistair trying to put some reasonable expectations on timescales in his presentation Q&A. So that is still where the risk is and it mustn't be underestimated how hard it will be to achieve that. Once it is proven, so will its value.
Abraham21 - 20:28 : "The fact it takes several weeks to even produce a prototype device (that then after that still needs to be tested and validated at scale) suggest it’s not as cut as dry as people on here are implying."
I agree that it still needs to be 'tested and validated at scale'.
We do need to remember that it is Joe Public who will be a one of the main user groups of the LFT. So not trained professionals in a professional environment. Approval by the regulators will therefore be appropriately demanding in terms of test robustness. Rest assured however simple the test seems, if there is something that can wrong with its use then Joe Public will unearth it! The authorities will be well aware of that and their procedures and requirements will reflect that.
Also, I hope that in anticipation of a positive outcome technically of the current development work being done by Cytiva/Avacta that arrangements are well in hand for recruitment of trial centres with a flow of patients ready to be tested.
I imagine they are.
These centres may well have to get approval from their Ethics Committees, despite the fact that sample acquisition is pretty non-invasive. Such are the regulations these days.
Having said that, we are all quite confident that all will be well in the end. I do think Myles's estimate that Avacta could be "commencing commercial production in July" is feasible, but optimistic.
Here's hoping!!
Abraham, yes I agree that we have no evidence of an test that works just that the chemistry and biology behind it works. The only point to a valuation is if you some we can get past that point. My interpretation is that this is almost mechanics now, the Lateral flow devices are not new, they are a proven tech, so the question is does this test perform differently in glass to in LFD than any other test. I think that risk is low. But still any valuation needs to be on the basis that it works.
What Abraham just said x a lot.
Hello all. Is it to late to join? Just found this share. Does anyone know what the company is worth? As in current projects etc? Many thanks.
At_home this ‘Donald’ character has been banned from LSE every week for abuse to certain posters on the BMN board.
I bought my first shares in BMN at 5p and it did reach 48p as the price of vanadium rose. But it dropped, and since BMN has become oversold. It is a profit making business and is growing.
Sorry for off topic but just wanted to explain!
I research companies thoroughly and if I don’t standby my convictions then you will not here me sharing positive research!
Cheers RK
13thmonkey - We have been told the reagents have been able to detect the virus in avactas lab, this has yet to be proven in a lateral flow device. The fact it takes several weeks to even produce a prototype device (that then after that still needs to be tested and validated at scale) suggest it’s not as cut as dry as people on here are implying.
Abraham it goes without saying that we need an accurate test, the question is if we have an accurate test (which is what we're being told) then what's the possibility? If we weren't being told it worked we wouldn't be here.
DigitalMockUp you are correct a LFD can be moulded in a 24 cavity tool at cycle times of around 10 seconds, 24 / 7 feeding directly into the clean room where the reactive agents can be added and then packed. Think 20 machines That is 29 million per week. One factory.
Not hard to ramp up production. There are thousands of medical device moulding sites around the world.
Cheers RK
Too many unknowns to start modelling with any confidence. How accurate is the test? How many manufacturing partners will we have? How many competitors are out there that we do not know of? How many people have already had the virus and how much immunity does this give you? How close is a vaccine? How much of the margin can we maintain at huge volume?
To reach these sky high estimates we everything in our favour I.e. a very accurate test, multiple manufacturing partners, no vaccine for at least a year, no immunity from those have already had the virus, no major competitors, no margins being squeezed etc. Changing any one of these variables has a huge impact on where we will get to. I would rather wait and see what the test accuracy is and get some more manufacturing partners in place before getting ahead of ourselves.