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Ripley, why don't just for once, butt out.
You, in your "avenging angle" persona don't seem to comprehend that you are the problem by constantly bringing yourself into a conversattion that you bring nothing to.
Precis: JDT said no divis for 3 years. I respond with. Does that mean you see no meaningful income from the LFT.
And then comes your typical, insightful post.
Mr R, thought I was already in the bin. But I like what you’ve done with the place. The disco ball and 80s arcade machines are a nice touch. But why so many pictures and of Rocky?
I hope someone can let you know my insightful analysis and witty repartee. They really are too.
Why don’t you just keep asking the same question on repeat Wyn, it’s enthralling.
Yes JD I can read (I am wondering if you can though).
My point was if AVCT start driving £20m profit per month from early next year through LFT sales how much money do you think they need then to drive the business forwards?
I mean if you think thats not enough, thats some fund raise you must be looking t?
Or as I actually said. do you not see any meaningful income from the LFT?
Let’s just take that idea a little bit further too.
C19 AffiDx has a limited life at the kinds of volumes we’re talking about here and hope we see. 20m per month may be for say two years. That will dwindle - we know that.
So £480m profits from that. This has to sit on balance sheet as a war chest given long term diagnostics revenue will not continue at that pace. Although the business will no doubt provide some useful revenue as product range expands.
Now the issue on the therapeutics side is products can’t be commercialised and produce revenue until they have been the full length of the process clinical trials/reg approval etc. That’s a lengthy process.
Yes we have LGChem Daewoong on board to help fund early stage development which is when you need them the most, but as some point Avacta will want to become more independent.
As products move into next stages, more trials, staff, facilities, regulatory costs grow and that costs serious money over a long period of time.
When you don’t have a guaranteed income stream (think like an accountant here) say COViD just stopped in 6m/12m yet you’ve already paid that cash out in dividends. That’s irresponsible when you have another business line to fund. As an investor how would you feel if Avacta came to the market for a discount placing to fund Tmac/preCision and the reason was we have no cash as we paid it out in dividends.
Makes no sense. They are a therapeutics focused business which is capital intensive for prolonged periods. They won’t want to give away huge slices of the pie so need every penny retained to fund the real prize.
Just look at the oncology market size! Forget divis from the LFT test. Everyone here should want the revenue to be put back into therapeutics to give shareholders the largest possible slice of multi multi multi billion dollar markets going forward.
Christ on a bike wyndrum you didn’t even read past the first sentence I wrote!
I’ll paste the relevant part from the rest of it for you…
“To think in 3 years time they will be letting funds out of the door as dividends when the therapeutics side is so capital intensive is a bit of a pipedream IMO.”
They will need every penny they can get to fund therapeutics - which is the holy grail of what Avacta have been doing for years. That saves them going back into the shark tank of AIM for placings.
AS has said himself they don’t plan on a dividend. And as a long term investor here I totally agree with that approach. What they sell via diagnostics, which I think not just C19 but AffiDx long term outside C19 will be very successful, It goes back into the business to self fund (or partially self fund) therapeutics
Pretty simple really. Have a reread of my post wyndrum, its all in there!
If Avacta paid out a dividend they’d be fools. The money has to stay in the company to drive therapeutics forward. Simple as that.
Arf arf arf. Throw him a fish. He’s working flat out.
TL…. You’re also binned for suggesting touk wants balanced discussion rather than everyone to ignore the latest potential opp for our LFT as he’s clearly out. Imbecile.
JDT, you said"I think you will disappointed if you are expecting a dividend in the next few years."
Are you discounting revenue from the test? (I presume you are?)
At 20m per month at £1 profit then that's surely enough to pay out a div?
AS has recently talked about more than that in terms of capacity. A lot of development is being paid for by the ties ups?
"I made it clear that I don’t expect a dividend until at least 2023."
With all due respect.....I think you will disappointed if you are expecting a dividend in the next few years. The therapeutics business will take time to develop and getting those various products to market will take both time and money (and of course there is no guarantee of success although I hope for my portfolio but more importantly any current/future cancer sufferers this does pay off.)
A company at such an early stage in this market needs HUGE amounts if funding which increase as the projects get further down the line. Look at the market they are competing in, it's monopolised by the GSK Pfizer Roche's etc...what do they all have in common....$$$$$.
They just snap up most tech they are interested in as either the small bio cannot afford to progress or they make offers nobody can refuse and bring in house to add further value.
To be in a position to potentially self fund some of their work through a diagnostics business (plus partners such as LGChem and Daewoong) is quite unusual. To think in 3 years time they will be letting funds out of the door as dividends when the therapeutics side is so capital intensive is a bit of a pipedream IMO.
You then add to that the potential for failure of on ore more of these platforms (again hope not but could happen), the business will need to have large amounts of contingent cash on balance sheet for this scenario. As the other option is to come crawling back to the market via placings which help absolutely nobody.
I would bet my hat for the foreseeable there are no divis coming out of Avacta. Value here is in SP growth or a buyout IMO.
Thank you for your advice concerning the balance of my portfolio. I am overweight in Avacta but thankfully the rest of my investments are in high dividend earning stocks and battery minerals providers. Avacta is a bit of a punt for me but it does have a superb long term future so is worth the risk.
Thanks for taking the time to reply to me.
I don’t disagree with what you have said. I made it clear that I don’t expect a dividend until at least 2023. That isn’t belittling Avacta. As you point out it’s an expected position for a company at this stage in its ‘life’. I do expect a good rise in SP next year as the therapeutics side gains traction. I take issue with baseless assertions that the SP will be £5 any day now as soon as CTDA or HUA or whatever is RNSed.
Thank you again for a civil and well reasoned response
JDT, good post.
Toukankahmoon - Firstly not sure what this obsession with selling in the UK is.....it's been made clear by AS time and time again the market here is fraught with cronyism, goalpost moving, govt/regulatory body ineptitude. Hence why when the cease of selling RNS came out it was accompanied by a statement that this will not materially impact LFT revenue forecasts for 2021. There is no desire form Avacta to be a player in the UK market - well know FACT. EU and APAC are the target markets.
Secondly regarding dividend payments. This is still a relatively small time biotech with some potentially groundbreaking tech and big plans. Therapeutics will cost a hell of a lot in R&D to develop everything they have in the pipeline preCISION TMAC pro drugs etc. You really think Avacta are going to be paying dividends from diagnostics revenues. They will rightly be put back into the business as retained earnings to fund therapeutics. You therefore potentially a fairly rare situation. A small biotech that provides some self funding as well as having partners such as LGChem Daewoong putting up R&D costs as well.
Not sure what company you think this is but Avacta aren't a Roche/GSK (yet) so talk of dividends is laughable and the fact you are trying to belittle Avacta's diagnostics side as not being able to provide a dividend is also comical.
You want dividends, go play on the main indices, plenty o the FTSE100 and NASDAQ. AIM is a high risk/reward market for companies to develop themselves and grow (plus a good portion of terrible lifestyle companies), they're on here for funding.
You got way ahead of yourself with this LFT dividend chat, AS has explicitly said in a Q&A they do not intend to pay a dividend so maybe it's best you sell up and move on here!
You still aren’t reading what I’m saying.
I haven’t said the LFT is useless. I agree that the technology is groundbreaking
But it isn’t going to source a dividend from Avacta anytime soon.
When do you think we’ll get our first dividend from Avacta?
And also be prepared for a new sparring partner appearing all of a sudden to chat along with toukankahmoon. Classic methodology of the T Team.
AHH FFS, what a coincidence. Looks like someone doesn't need much sleep and has naff all else to do with their time. toukankahmoon now filtered.
For those that won't filter this idiot, please be prepared for incessant, repetitive nonsense about LFT being useless but i'm still invested etc etc etc.
The New Variant provides a opportunity for Avacta to shake off its hopeless performance over its LFT to date:-
Get the Avacta LFT tested against the new variant; prove it still works or, quickly develop a version that does work.
Do this urgently and convincingly and, maybe the tide of sentiment will turn back in Avacta's favour.
And, who know, Avacta might actually start selling some LFTs.
I agree. The process is farcical. But that doesn’t help, because we have to get through it to sell in the UK.
Why do you only hear what suits you. I’ve been careful not to say that the LFT is dud. It isn’t. But what I am saying is that Avacta is unlikely to be able to source a dividend payment from the sales. And serious investors are after a good strong medium term dividend return on their capital investment or at least reasonable expectations of one.
When do you think we’ll get our first dividend from Avacta?
Thanks Monkshood...for your very interesting and informative posts.
If the protein has changed shape why would the affimers not need tweaking. The concept of recognition applies to endogenous antibodies, vaccine provoked antibodies, Abs in DX and Avacta affimers.
Touk - get what you are saying - it kind of matches the general belief but not thrtone here - bit harsh view of people given what's been said by the majority. Maybe others cling to the hope that this time around the lessons have been learned - my own thought is they no longer expect and rely on UK to help with samples and testing. Spain offers the facilities needed and conveniently also enables Europe.
Hang in there (or consider selling but...)
It most likely doesn’t even need tweaking you moron.
Clearly paying you overtime for the weekend aren’t they.
The UK gov ship sailed a long time ago, validation using frozen pig saliva samples not suitable for validation of AffiDx (and other tests who noted this such as Mologic). The process is farcical and that is well known.
HUA imminent in Europe and APAC approvals due Q4. We all know that’s the key to unlocking the full sales potential of the LFT.
It’s already selling for professional use via Calibre and Avacta making direct sales. Plus Medusa part of the NHS microbiology framework to supply for professional use. So clearly there is no issue with selling when the UK gov can’t get their act together at PD.
Don’t just roll up here with your “LFT is a dud” speech with zero basis for it. The just add a bit of “Ava6000 could be good” to take the edge of your pathetic deramp attempts.
Just another fool peppering a bb with the same repetitive cr*p
So we’re gonna clean up with our LFT because it can quickly be tweaked to detect new variants. But we can’t even get the initial LFT approved in 12 months.
Listen to yourselves. You’re deluded.
Is QconCATs a new conspiracy group?
Brilliant. I actually understood that haha. Thanks for that Monkshood. So they could do it but it’s basically not a perfect match for actual samples. (I think). Hopefully we’re updated soon.