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The thing is Mon, the cost of the cure is already arguably beyond the cost of the problem.
Wiggly says another lockdown is nailed on. Why? Its not like the first 3 have stopped it?
Some scientist I read a few weeks ago was saying that this type of virus is actually beneficial to the species, as it attacks the most vulnerable and strengthens the already fit and healthy further. Now, that sounds very callous when it refer to humans but if it were David Attenborough talking about an already over-populated animal/insect, I am not sure we would all stand up and immediately donate to a fund to protect it.
I just don't know where we draw the line now in cost benefit on this virus. How many other people have to die through missed treatments and others have their lives ruined through missed operations, children missing out on life opportunities due to a poorer education (which generally leads to a poorer financial outcome and therefore life expectancy), as well as the financial worry/stress hardship of business failure for employee's and employers alike, all leading to potentially a shorter life expectancy.
Wyn you make a very important point and I appreciate it.
I do not expect the the current emergency to last a life time, perhaps a year or so.
Either the virus moves on to another variant, or we see developments of mass testing systems for events etc. which will displace home testing.
There is also the development of therapies which could change the picture.
Right now we have an emergency and costs need to be set against short term costs of damage to NHS, economy, society, etc
Re tests and therapies under development, Affimers seem to a preferred method of detection for many of them. - also good news for Avacta.
Wyn, I agree with all of that.
I can't see another lockdown Wiggly its already decimating the economy as it is.
As for the NHS. you could argue its already "overwhelmed"
Hours to wait for an ambulance if not deemed an emergency An old person falling over going to bed and braking a hip/arm/ leg with a panic button can wait over 6 hours for help. (first hand experience with my mum). Let alone stroke/heart attack victoms waiting far too long.
Millions of operations deferred, and with these operations by not doing them, the condition worsens. You leave cataracts too long and you can lose your sight altogether, meaning your independence needing expensive care. And that's ignoring the intolerable pain of needing joint replacements, which again can be left too long to be operated on.
Obviously cancers are going undetected when they perhaps would have been picked up and treated.
GP's not doing so many face to face consultations.
All this while covid in hospitals are running around 5% of beds.
We don't even know if this variant is any more deadly than Delta. There is evidence that suggest it is not, but they can't be sure yet, so the authorities are assuming the worse case scenario.
Wyn, it is very costly , agree, but then so if shutting down the economy when the NHS gets 'overwhelmed' which looks to be nailed on sometime around Jan - hence another lock down is imminent
Mon: "As the virus develops rapidly in our lungs over night, I could see home testing becoming part of our nation's daily routine whereby we take our nasal swab before we clean our teeth, and by the time we are finished we already have the result, and the two percent or so of us who are positive, then know that they should isolate for the day at least."
population of UK 67m x £5 per test =£335m/day = £2.345b per week = £122b per year.
Who exactly, is going to pay that for a disease that the average age of death is in the 80's on the back co-morbidities?
Thanks to Timster for his link to BBC (This thread Monday 11:11)
Interesting feature of the Omicron variant is the S-Gene drop out.
Does anyone know if Avacta can or will soon be able to detect the new variant?
Preliminary evidence (Fauci and others) suggests that Omicron develops in our lungs more quickly than Delta, and therefore spreads more rapidly, even displacing Delta in the population.
It also seems to be significantly less virulent, leading to the prospect of a reduction in hospitalisation - good news perhaps!
Or perhaps not?
If not, or may be in any case, we need frequent home testing more than ever.
As the virus develops rapidly in our lungs over night, I could see home testing becoming part of our nation's daily routine whereby we take our nasal swab before we clean our teeth, and by the time we are finished we already have the result, and the two percent or so of us who are positive, then know that they should isolate for the day at least.
I am not a medical expert so the above is my received wisdom taken from media and to no small extent from some of the more informed messages on this and similar message sites. My thanks to them.
PS.
Sensym Health (SENS) have developed an App that can be used to evidence that we have taken the home test as we go about our daily business and enable us to enjoy "freedom".
Traders have MM, feeding off the fears sown on likes of here. Investors can take a different view.
Maybe it benefits us all if the sales figures are really really bad. Once figures are on record the price could tank further.
It is very different Donkey.
The LFT is the first product using Avacta "in house" technology to go on sale. It has been touted by Alistair to be one of the best of it's kind in the world. During the months this "world-class" product has been on sale to a world in desparate need of just such a product the SP has fallen 60%.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to expect updates on sales. How is is beneficial for the company to keep this information secret? Who here has benefitted from this secrecy?
So is it any different to a company supplying say components to an engineering plc? We wouldn't expect a running commentary on the hundreds of thousands of widgets supplied. More likely it would be a note in either a scheduled trading update or results with, possibly, some comment on where things are up to.
All this true Zoom, but that has never stopped anyone from speculationg and joining the dots for future revelations to get to a £200 per share by the end of the year has it?
Thats my point.
But like i say this BB is absolute in its refusal to acknowledge that we can even discuss anything " negative", even though it might save us all money. or even help us make some.
hey ho. good luck
Why vegas, is my life and "sadder" than yours?
You post on here. (which is an investment BB, after all, lets not forget that.)
And where is the argument? I am asking for people to come with their thoughts on why we are where we are.
You think all is going well with the test since 18 months ago?
Would you have liked to know then what you know now?
Would it have been better if this BB had come to a cautious conclusion 12 months ago rather than a repeated "Is it Us" and "at last, it is Us" "quick, Top up" , " RNS out this week", attitude over and over and over again?
You think that attitude by trying to get people banned and personalising and insulting them is constructive to improving investment decisions?
Or is this all rhetorical, and I assume you think this BB has been helpful over the last 18 months as in Investment forum to exchange ideas and thoughts?
We don’t know what the issue is Wyndrum. What we do know as Timster points out, that the test is currently being sold by one distributor & Avacta directly. We also know that Abingdon have an initial substantial order & are scaling up to produce between 1&2 million test per month. Further to this, Medusa have made very good progress towards HUA.
It’s all in the public domain.
been drawn in by the sealion Vegas. no more replies from me...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sealioning
@timster, Wyndrum knows all this he's arguing as usual to pass the time, I know I know incredibly sad life I guess
they are selling Affidx thats a fact, I have some which I bought recently.
they are still for sale here:
https://bioservuk.com/product/avacta-affidx-sars-cov-2-antigen-lateral-flow-test/
No one on this board knows the volume of sales, and they wont know until its reported by the company, which will probably be in the final results next year.
The Market believes the numbers are low, hence the share price. What more is there to discuss??
Avacta is way more than a lateral flow test of course, but that is value to add in the long term..
Well, it might be a fan belt, Tim and we could bodge something together or it could be Piston rods and its a write off.
There are some bright minds on here that a conversation might eventually lead to a consensus.
Its quite a different investing strategy if it turns out the test is fine, its just a time thing, or if there is an actual problem somewhere with the test.
"Its like having a car that doesn't work and rather try to figure out what might be the cause so we can at least understand the problem to see if it can be fixed or not, we just sit around talking about all the journey's we could go on if it was running."
how are you going to fix it wynbore? (if its broken)
No Donkey, its not that at all. We can be as optimistic as we like. I have no issue with that at all.
But because I am asking for others thoughts as to why the test is not selling and has not sold to business in any number for months is met not with any reasonable discussion of what might be happening but basically told to shut up and go away.
The issue is always avoided.
(I was accused yesterday of already knowing the answers. Except its the opposite, I have no idea. It could be a number of things but there are different implications for each one .)
But the issue is never addressed, its always avoided Its as though talking about it somehow will make matters worse.
The nearest to talking about it was a couple of posts yesterday just asking AVCT to do something in a fairly exasperated way aimed at AS. Well, that doesn't really take the conversation forward, does it?
Whereas we get multiple posts per day demanding the test be released and how great it is, what huge demand there is and if only, if only, if only, .... etc. Which gets us precisely nowhere too. But that's ok apparently.
Its like having a car that doesn't work and rather try to figure out what might be the cause so we can at least understand the problem to see if it can be fixed or not, we just sit around talking about all the journey's we could go on if it was running.
You might think that's a reasonable course of action, but I don't.
...."Do you think all the "positive" posts about our almost invisible, world beating, most accurate test will stop as well?"
So Wyndrum, shareholders should show restraint and not be allowed to be optimistic lol.
Thanks
@pumpky, by the end of the year so ABDX say
"The Company has made recent progress in relation to two projects involving scale-up and technical transfer to manufacture. Avacta plc's AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 antigen lateral flow test is being validated to allow commercial product to be manufactured and released by Abingdon Health. Avacta have indicated that they may require the Company to produce between one and two million tests per month. The transfer process, which involves scale-up of processes and manufacture of three production-scale manufacturing runs, is progressing well and due for completion in this calendar year. A significant order for post-technical transfer production has been received from Avacta."
Ok, I'll gladly stop.
Do you think all the "positive" posts about our almost invisible, world beating, most accurate test will stop as well?
Me neither.
Not clear enough for you Wyndrum? No one’s arguing so your jobs done here.
Wyndrum - the answer is wait until the next update. If things are as poor as you repeatedly infer then the company can't hide away from the issue forever. Until then your speculation is as worthless as anyone else's