Avacta Share Chat (AVCT)

A moron, a twat , and a narcissist walk into the bar .

Blimey Richar,Captainstanley And NDN71 drinking together

Wouldn't last 5 mins in a Glasgow bar

Why do French people eat snails?
Because they don’t like fast food.

A moron, a twat , and a narcissist walk into the bar .
Bartender: what will it be, richar?

If it works so well, why is this not reflected in the share price? I am really dumbfounded that after two really good RNS, the share price still bounces at about £1.00. The recent Trinity Delta Lighthouse valuation report dated 30th June 2022 values Avacta at £557m (equivalent to 219.1p per share). So currently, Avacta's SP is about 47% of 220p and so seriously undervalued. Myles McNulty is saying similar things too. The expectation is that the SP will undergo multiple value-inflection points over the next 18-24 months. I can't wait .... I am the big kid who is waiting for Xmas to come early ..GLA
https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1540345210969915393
https://www.trinitydelta.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/AVCT-Lighthouse-220630.pdf

Why do you care you ****ing moron? If people who have their own money invested and want to discuss their investment, at whatever time of day or night and whenever they feel they have something to discuss, it’s absolutely no concern of yours at all. If you’ve got nothing to add and it erks you so much then why are you trolling the board and posting too on a Saturday night?! Bell end. WHY?! WHHHHY? Dim wit.

Because they are interested.

RAH, think your thesis is logical.

Put aside the patient - who is of course paramount

In theory IF we don’t get a red dot advising of a fatality due to a heart issue between now and the end of August we may assume there is an extremely high chance Avacta have cracked the tox issue, even though the official report won’t be published for some time after ?

From an investment point of view it’s a red or green flag - no RNS / RNS between now and then, other than confirmation USA on line ?

Every day no RNS is good news, patient and shareholders

That’s my take ?

For a few days same poster on here even on a weekend WHY would you spend your weekend posting WHY.

RAH - you’re in my head with those calcs :)

I’ve got a spreadsheet going. I need to get a life. I’ve read more about dox lately and found it mega interesting. Also a sign I need to get a life.

The trial numbers just don’t add up. Mine are showing patients having potentially received over 1200mg/m2. It’s over twice the fatal dose. And we’re still going. Yes, the trial can accept fatal withdrawals, but not those caused by AVA.

We know AVA isn’t causing fatal withdrawals as we’re struggling to find an MTD. Two extremes.

I’m reading some material and summarising how dox is broken down in the body. Fascinating. The percentages of free dox, doxorubicinol, and what is excreted. I’ll post more when I’m done. In essence - it doesn’t take much free dox/doxol to cause a DLT.

Therefore, the targeting doesn’t have to be that specific to make a huge difference. Super exciting.

Really useful. BITL - thanks.

I’m asking myself:

What are the chances of a stage 4 cancer patient having received no dox?

Slim, of course (which is why the trail has exclusion criteria set to 350mg and not zero).

Dox is usually administered in 75mg (though again, this changes but for arguments sake call it 75mg).

Say therefore you have a patient (or two, or three) having had 75mg x 4.

That’s 300mg and they qualify for the trial.

160mg AVA6000 (DE2) is equivalent to 110mg dox equivalent (again, not exact but a round number and very close).

That’s 300mg base +

110mg = 410mg (30 mg below the normal MTD) by first dose (I.e. now)

410mg + 110mg = 520mg by week 3 (3rd week July)

520mg + 110mg = 630mg by week 6 (2nd week Aug)

(This is over the point were you’d see 1 in 3 chances of cardiomyopathy)

630 + 110mg = 740mg (1st week Sept)

You see my point… very soon Avacta and the SDMC are going to have a very good idea as to how AVA6000 is performing (at very high doses).

This assumes some of the patients will have received dox to date, of course.

Excellent research RAH - as usual

Thanks for sharing

I found the papers were a decent read RAH - glad you did.

Good write up.

Maximum lifetime cumulative exposure to doxorubicin (or other anthracyclines) is 450mg/m2, with up to 100mg/m2 able to be given to patients if the clinician thinks they are strong enough for it.

The trial protocol says:

"Patients in Phase Ia will receive escalating doses of AVA6000 following a 3+3 design, commencing with a starting dose of 80mg/m2, once every 3 weeks (Q3W) starting on Cycle 1, Day 1 (C1D1), until disease progression, unacceptable toxicities, withdrawal from treatment for other reasons, REACHING MAXIMUM LIFETIME CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO DOXORUBICIN (OR OTHER ANTHRACYCLNES), or death, whichever occurs first."

So how do you know that the clinicians are exceeding that maximum?

Agree, outstanding research, thanks a million(or two).

The research on this board has become outstanding. Thanks RAH.

Cardiomyopathy is a general term for diseases of the heart muscle, where the walls of the heart chambers have become stretched, thickened or stiff. This affects the heart's ability to pump blood around the body.

Doxorubicin cardiomyopathy is frequently fatal.

That’s why the MTD is limited to 550mg (this is an absolute max, often far lower, but mainly 450-550mg).

In the below study on doxorubicin cardiomyopathy:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2848530/

The incidence of cardiomyopathy was 36% @ 600mg.

The DE2 dose (I.e. 160mg AVA6000) over 18 weeks, equates to a total dose of 640mg (doxorubicin equivalent).

Patients are therefore receiving 40mg over an (already inflated) dose which typically equates to a 36% incidence of cardiomyopathy.

Hypothetically, a patient can also have received up to 350mg of doxorubicin before they joined the study (most will have received chemo, given their stage).

It’s therefore possible for a DE2 patient to receive 990mg of doxorubicin equivalent given the trial criteria. Just shy of 1,000mg equivalent of a drug which yields a 36% likelihood of cardiomyopathy when dosed at 600mg.

Just shy of 1,000mg doxorubicin equivalent. That’s impossible without exquisite targeting.

It’s no wonder Avacta is now happy to talk about “the emerging safety and tolerability profile of AVA6000”.

https://twitter.com/rah00084/status/1543281483162550275?s=21&t=XNfPNwPIFBKd1lpoIGZ7ag

One look at the pictures provided by lovebig (note: very graphic) demonstrates (1) what chemo patients have to endure; (2) just how lethal doxorubicin is.

Helps frame why the SDMC/AVCT may not need/want to go beyond 160mg.

If Avacta have harnessed this drug (they’ve pretty much told us they have) then today’s share could be a daily moment in 18 months (if AVCT remain independent*).

*they won’t

While good that FAP targeting is in the news, I suspect Clovis are going to need significant capital soon, or are looking for ‘big pharma’ to acquire.
https://s22.q4cdn.com/778348918/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Clovis-Oncology-Announces-First-Quarter-2022-Operating-Results-and-Provides-Update-on-Clinical-Development-Programs-2022.pdf
“Clovis remains focused on its liquidity position and recognizes that it will need to raise additional capital in the near term to fund its operating plan for the next 12 months and to continue as a going concern”.
Q1 / 2022 …
$122.2m cash, net cash used in operating activities $58.5m, $18.6m debt funding available (Athena funding, $156.4 drawn), $437.3m convertible senior notes on balance sheet.
If (when) AVA6000 proven to cleave in the TME and drop Dox without any chemical change in the right place, then that’s great for us. But I suspect that would also significantly encourage POINT Biopharma to accelerate CanSEEK trials – more directly competing with Clovis.
AVCT a better proposition IMHO.
GLA

May one humbly suggest that you follow that advice Wress? Does not becoming emotionally involved in investing include creating (at least) 3 Twitter accounts with which to spread your investment "advice"? You even talk to yourself between these accounts. Get a grip.

Get of LSE and go to gamblers anonymous and deal with your massive 58k loss you clown.

Wress. Fck off before I rip you a new one again.

It’s not advice from me
It’s copy book text builder ******cks.
“Don’t get emotionally attached (obsessed) with your investment)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431942/
Anything which mitigates this would be wonderful.

Not every attempt at an IV injection is successful. Could it be that these are infusions into tissue or IV infusions where the doxorubicin has leaked out of the vessels through punctures from previous attempts? Google Images isn't an exact science. Whatever the reason, these injuroies are real and if, as we deduce, AVA6000 is inert until in contact with FAPa, then we have a much superior drug ready to be unleashed on the world.

wress, strange thing to say, when you constantly try to work on investors fear of their investment. All your negative comments are emotionally barbed.

Nasty, nasty, nasty stuff - if Avacta can stop all this!!!