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Thanks Nervous Nelly - that seems correct. Well done for remembering those figures LOL !!
Thank you Trotsky.
Not easy to trust old historical charts - so your method works with my old chisel and stone records !! Thanks.
Would you consider buying another one please
Increase in SP is 100% down to renewal of the insurance on my Range Rover next month.
Increased premium adds about 10% to forward EPS.
and anything that says that at any point the sp was over £5 in recent years is just plain wrong (likely ****ed up by the consolidation)
No. (i'm going from memory so forgive inaccuracies)
The price at the point of the capital return was 423.7p (sorry - i know it's sad to remember that) the 102p (ish) returned was 24% of that & your holding was reduced by 24%. The price pre all this messing is directly comparable to the post split price.
The whole point was to keep the SP the same pre & post the capital return. We didn't gain a penny on the return. Where we are now gaining is on the increased dividends paid. (again from memory 22p pre split to 33p now - so 50% increase).
Personally i didn't use the capital return to add to my holding, however I'm getting more income from a 24% lower investment. (Chips AND rice :))
....we've been here many times...i still feel there is some substance to them....fellow dip buyers sept /oct 23 happy atm......on a side note i see aviva have now taking over all Nationwide building society travel insurance......gla.
Hi Rothers, We received c102p per old share which is equivalent to c134p per new share (we received 76 new shares for every 100 old shares - 100*102p/76 = c134p)
This was a great post Trotsky - However could you just explain how you get to the C134p for the new shares?? I really can't quite get my head round it to compare onions with onions :) Thank you !!
"AoC, the 285p figure I quoted is not my figure; it's LSE's. Check the historical chart.
I've checked some AV purchases I made in Aug/Sep 2020 and they agree with the prices quoted on the historical chart, so I think it's safe to assume that LSE has not adjusted the older share prices to take account of the capital reduction in April 2022 when we each received 76 new shares for every 100 old shares held. So, I would asssume that your (sarcastic) "think about it?" comment would be in reference to multiplying LSE's figure of c285p by 100/76 (which would give your figure of c368p, allowing for some rounding differences).
Hmm, so far so good, but what about the c102p per old share (or c134p per new share) we received as part of the capital reduction? For a proper like-for-like comparison, you'd need to either add the c134p to today's price i.e. 368p vs c551p or deduct it from the adjusted July 2020 share price i.e. 234p vs 417p. You can't simply ignore the capital return or discount it as if it was a normal dividend return (it wasn't paid out of AV's current year profits and is non-recurring) simply because it's convenient for your argument.
For example, if (say) you'd originally bought 1,000 old shares at 284.5pps (LSE's quoted closing price) on 6 July 2020 they'd have cost you £2,845. Today, you'd own 760 new shares which, at 417pps, would be worth c£3,169. However, you'd have also received c£1,018 as part of the capital reduction. QED if you'd bought 1,000 old shares for £2,845 on 6 July 2020 and sold your 760 new shares today at c417p you'd have generated a total capital return of c£4,187 plus annual dividends of c£793 i.e. a capital return of c47% and/or an overall return of c75%. Not that bad when you consider Covid, war in Ukraine, Truss-enomics, rampant inflation, near zero growth etc. LGEN (run by a man) doesn't even bear comparison (unfortunately)."
Plus the Divi to look forward to:-
https://www.aviva.com/investors/dividends/
Things are looking a lot more promising.......... about time hey !!
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/aviva-shares-tipped-generate-big-income-and-capital-returns-ii530825
Highest it's been in last few years it about £4.60 so ignore what google says. Went a bit wrong when they did the buyback and reduced everyone's holding.
Hi Box,
There is momentum in Aviva's SP and it is a brave person that would ADVISE you. I have a smaller holding than you and something has generated an impetus in the SP. For my part I am not taking profits yet. Results are not far away and I am waiting for them. Don't take this as ADVICE!
CHAT
Don't forget ex-final div date is 12th April, so probably looking at a dividend then of around 20p Payment 23rd May), that's just under 5% of the current SP, so if you sell you'll be losing out on that. Interim is hot on the heels around 4 months later.
Also, there is potentially something happening here. For AV to shoot up 13p in one day and not retrace the next is an indication that someone, somewhere probably knows something we don't, as yet.
As with any share, it's a gamble. But if you have a good profit already, then maybe take it. It has been up to around 585p in the last couple of years and 460p in the last year, so I think it's a fairly safe bet it'll have a little further to go yet.
Your choice.
FYI nicknaim,
- Titles for this forum-
SHARE DISCUSSION FOR AVIVA. + AVIVI SHARE CHAT .
What did YOU want to talk about..? Your intellect…? lack of medication today..?
Begs a question if you need to come on here to make a decision
Well clearly something's brewing here ...
I have two tranches. 25000 thousand shares and 14000 shares. One lot purchased at £3.97 and the second at £4.25. I was tempted to exit and take my profits, pay for this years summer holidays. I think that as we move toward March when results are due and amount of Divi announced we will see a gradual increase in the price. My happy dilemma is.....do I sell before the ex dividend date as the price increases or wait until after, when the share price drops by the amount of the dividend plus the rest.
Retirment, "O well, i'll save the money and buy back at £4.20 or less in a month like normal...."
Not so sure !! There seems to be some serious momentum here though not sure of its source.
I sold £15k worth at £4.40 but it seems to have broken though.
O well, i'll save the money and buy back at £4.20 or less in a month like normal....
Well, i would very much like you to be right, bubbles, fingers crossed!
but do bear in mind that the current share price is already pricing in some degree of expected downward interest rate movement, s/prices are forward looking.
and also bear in mind that holders will be picking up pretty generous dividends anyway along the way? — so if s/price makes it to 550p by xmas 2025, that would be 24% gain over 22 months *plus* the dividend payouts. i’d be pretty happy with that myself.
BoA upgrade from hold to buy, advising clients Aviva offers the best value of all UK listed insurers
You don’t get many days like that here. A 3.14% increase on a day without a RNS and the FTSE down, anyone know the reason?
Dividend qualifying date is only 7 weeks away now and should be worth over 20p a share, it’s a definite hold for me at present.
550p by Xmas 2025? With interest rates to start falling sharply from June/July, I would anticipate an SP of circa 550p by Xmas 2024 all being well ! Possible takeover material then of anything from 675-775p.
Bubbles, shooting for 550p by xmas 2025, organically, or 650-725p if attempted takeover by then (? dunno, maybe 10-15% chance on that timescale?). jmv.
(obviously, depends on putin not nuking us all into a pile of glowing nutty slack before then.)