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Looking forward when ATM moves out of AIM and into the main market, i see no reason that this is a probability if AV delivers on his target of becoming a medium mining company worth 1B.
Likewise RichyF3, I am adding when I can, I am struggling to see a better option on AIM at the moment.
I’ve added a few more today , I’ll keep adding on weakness.
My buy today was marked down as a sell, the first transaction of the day.
Tin trying for for 29k :)
Well from what I can see there has been 10 recorded trades totalling circa 70k with 7 buys and 3 sales totalling about 14k of that figure yet the sp was marked down from 4.7-4.8 to 4.5-4.8 after the first sale of less than 10k which makes no sense to me whatsoever ,so when folk talk of the mm’s taking the proverbial , that there today must be a classic example of exactly that - no wonder markets are called irrational
'Anyone know what prices they need to break even?'
Tin,..$17,000/mt
Lithium,.. for free.
Anyone know what prices they need to break even?
Good start to the week.
https://twitter.com/jczuleta/status/1769606033326899280?t=FBjaDQpHqt8gTOtPMYU-kg&s=19
TDT
Anyone know an AIM company producing both of these?
…..by the looks of things.
https://twitter.com/jczuleta/status/1768747140698779777?t=87MyBh0qlIVoU3aOB23lrg&s=19
TDT
Some excellent posts on here of late so big thanks to all concerned just noticed this https://www.ft.com/content/ba9d43aa-b1ab-4244-82b2-7bd12d3799ac
in the FT about Nissan / Honda tie up as the EV revolution really starts to ramp up with VW also looking at doing likewise with Renault so here’s yet another massive opportunity for Atm down the line me thinks as this is where we hope to be heading based on these 2 excerpts from the last Rns
“We are pleased to report significant progress on the Strategic Process. Discussions with international organisations from within the lithium value chain are advanced. We are encouraged by the level and quality of interest from interested parties."
and then this
“In the short-term, we are targeting initial sales of our Pilot Plant production into the spot glass-ceramics market whilst progressing discussions with potential long-term offtakers across the lithium value chain to access other markets,
particularly the battery market.”
Putting all the pieces together with the impending JV on board is indicating to me that Atm is defo well placed to see why AV thinks this could ultimately become a billion dollar company …. Well we can but hope but I’ve just added another 40k for good measure . Anyway a good weekend to all invested here exciting times .
Only think I might caution given the issues in BMN expansion and rather large cost increases, is that having the capital in place for the Capex is one thing, but invariably a whole raft of other costs get added in on the way.
For me, the picture looks solid, on plan and going well, but I rather expect (only born of past experience and not because I have any great ATM insight or additional inside knowledge), that there will be higher operating costs associated with the expansion phase.
Just my two peneth to temper thoughts
And tin traded at 28635 this morning :-). It's having a good run
Yep, forgot the fact that it’s not 100% owned by ATM, thanks for the info bohercon.
So revenue/profits -15%, which makes revenue $81m and profit $35m.
Which was tin at $27k, Petalite at the bottom end of their range at $1600 per ton and no percentage increase for economies of scale. For reference each $1000 change in the tin price equates to a +/- $1.5m change to the profit figure.
Good point on the AISC. They'll have to do as you suggest and break it out.
They've said the Strategic Partner is a lithium-only deal, so the true underlying costs of the lithium extraction will have to feed into whatever arrangement is put in place there. That would then make the tin/tantalum side of the operation more profitable as some of the extraction costs would be shared with the Strategic Partner arrangement.
I wonder what they'll do in future when reporting AISCs?
At the moment, they only quote an AISC for the tin, and say that the tantalum and lithium is produced pretty much for free. When they are saying that revenues from the lithium and tantalum, even at today's prices (forecast to be much higher in a couple of years), will be about the same as the tin, surely they must start reducing the quoted AISC for the tin and pass at least some of that through to the other 'by-products'.
In the overall scheme of things this would, to a certain extent, be window-dressing, but it would highlight the benefits of the economies of scale which are resulting from a move to the polymetallic nature of the business, and the subsequent effective reduction in AISCs.
@rgbuk - good work on this, thanks.
Also need to remember that Andrada own 85% of Uis, the remaining 15% going to the "Small Miners of UIS" government agency. So any expected revenue is reduced by 15% before it gets to Andrada.
The numbers are still extremely promising, and that 15% arrangement must work to keep the government relationship in good shape.
Previously they had no Lithium or Tantalum circuit in the production line. On this ramp up phase next year or so they're introducing the Lithium and Tantalum circuits which essentially will all be "cream on the cake" as AV puts it. They will be produced almost for free as the tin production/AISC carries their costs... hence the projected profit is Lithium Revs -20% + Tantalum revs -20%
Hope that helps
Lithium will be much higher soon, you cant take the current crazy low ....
Early bird - Looking at past fundamentals even when tin was $39k it did not have the impact on the bottom line ie profits that you are suggesting. Costs to get it out of the ground v current spot price means the profit margin is thin. I accept the ramp up will help but think I am missing out on something with regards to reported profits you are suggesting ????
Rgbuk no worries, enjoyed reading your post! Indeed $42m profit per year is quite something vs the current Mcap, let alone when ATM lands its partner to catapult it to phase 2 production.
Beauty with ATM is not only is it sitting on one of the largest Lithium and Tin resources globally, it has a clear route to mid tier $billion mcap *without* the need for shareholder dilution at topco
Good post - thats a baseline 15p on a x10 PE - in 2023 however the average PE for a growing mining company sat at just under x20 - so you could double it, you then get near the last broker target. SL
Fantastic effort . Numbers crunching is always good to reassure yourself you have it right . Always nice to see others helping other investors out also . We are all here for the same reason .
Yep, spot on, I knew I’d make at least one slip up, but at least it’s one that makes the figures look even more appealing.
Thanks for the correction Early_Bird!