George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
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As have I. Sadly not replicated across my entire p/f :)
Maths is obviously not his strong point eh
Roberto , let me give your current valuation. 3 B with 3 % FCF a share is about 75 pence, if you get that in 2025 and onwards modest growth 4 % you are with 10 % wacc and a PER of 15-17 at 9-11 pounds easily. I rate this probability at 50 %, 30 % that we do better and 20 % we go down. Below 4 pounds this is a asymmetric bet hence why i think the elephants add shares and prepare for what is coming. I am leaving all the intangibles value out of the equation. My preferred thesis is running the turnaround but the 20 % is always in my mind.
*In the past year, the maximum return one could have is c.15% if they managed to buy the bottom*
In the past year there have been a myriad of opportunities to make a bunch more than 15%, but even if you bought at the 52 week low (320) and held until today's high (389) that's about 20% (25% more than 15%). However, I suspect there are many here who have cleared a lot more than 15% over the year with their trades on ASC, I know I have.
@Knowbody - What's wrong with my numbers? Please correct me.
@James - How much do you expect the company to grow? What level of profitability and when? And how do you value that as being over c.£740m enterprise value? (valuation based on today's share price)
I'm just curious to see the fundamentals behind all these bullish views.
@Roberto that is all well and good, but what about the potential speedy return back to growth and progressive increase in sales feeding into the leaner business?
As far as i can see, growing businesses are not valued on their net asset value and current sales, they're valued on their forward earnings and their potential to grow into something alot bigger (especially in ASOS's case).
On the contrary,if the company shows no signs of turning the ship around,then then forward valuation will be lower than the current market cap and rightly so.
There's no doubt the SP is in the gutter (my average is circa 600) an there's alot of people who are down here.
I mentioned a 'growing' business, which is what ASOS is however, it is not a brand new business, we have the advantage of knowing the explosive upside once the sale levels return.
If you believe the business can be a success once again, then purchase a position.
If I didn't think sales could return then I would of sold well before today.
I think you missed the general point I made: happiness here and elsewhere is very subjective. Also, your math is out by quite a bit.
The company certainly is not without its problems - few would deny that. But if it's not for you, pass on by and wish the rest of us luck.
GL / KBYK
In the past year, the maximum return one could have is c.15% if they managed to buy the bottom. The rest are down up to 50%. If you bought more than a year ago, then that's more than 50% loss.
Now the turnaround plan seems to be 'working', but the value of the company remains unchanged. Why? Maybe because that's what it's worth even if the turnaround plan works out?
They have c.£300m net debt + market cap of £440m at current price, an EV of £740m. So question is, how much do you think the equity value should be worth if the company makes say £150k EBIDTA but spend £100k+ on capex each year?
Enjoy your trip too. Hopefully when we both return to Blighty, we might actually get some pleasant Spring sunshine. A man can dream.... :) GLA.
Thanks for replying.
Yes it's currently sat just above the 50dma.
I personally think there is a gap to close between the 10 and 50dmas, and we'll see if it gets pushed down to close it. Alternatively, the 50 might provide support.
Enjoy your holidays. I'm about to head off for the first of my annual trips to God's Playground. Definitely won't be sorry to see the weather here in the rear view mirror, either.
GLA/DYOR
IMO, from a technical perspective, it is more important that you stay above the 50 DMA for at least a few days now, rather than thinking about breaking out above the 200 (although a confirmed break above the 200 would be very bullish of course).
I think shorts are going to keep on attacking this one until the April update. Concerns will linger (and be exploited) until you get that meat on the bone in the proper update, IMO.
Of no consequence for bullish LTH investors, but to the poster asking about technical opinions, I thought I would chuck mine into the mix for good measure :)
Not adding any fresh trades myself, as sunnier climes await shortly (hard to get worse than the weather here anyway) and a wholesome rest from the fun and games of the stock market will be good for the soul, if not necessarily the bank balance! GLA.
Me too, not above £4 until after the new allowance kicks in. I need to transfer some into my isa out of the trading account 😅
Exactly this.
I’d be quite happy with it staying around here , or a tad lower until the new ISA allowance kicks in. Waiting to fill 2 x
It’s bounced twice off 387. Needs to clear this then it’s blue sky.
*ASOS among the worst performing stocks in the past 3 years on LSE. A staggering decline of 90%. But everyone on here appears to be happy.*
I don't think everyone is happy. A lot will depend on entry prices. Most on this BB seem to be here for the recovery play, and as such we haven't seen a 90% fall in the value of our investment over the 3-years you mention. Those that got in the other day at 329p would (currently) have good reason to be happy. Someone like me with an average in the low 600s would be less so. Others are doing well trading it (I've had some success there myself) and will be happy about that.
I feel a little better following the update, but there's a way to go before I feel happy about my entire investment, but on the whole yes there is a lot for people to be happy about here.
GL
ASOS among the worst performing stocks in the past 3 years on LSE. A staggering decline of 90%. But everyone on here appears to be happy.
I am in both RR (since 79p) and Asos as I saw them both as recovery plays. But my point is why arw you here when you clearly dont like the stock. Also 10 years downtrend? What stock is that? Cause it certainly isn't Asos.
In terms of the LSE board this one isn't even close to how bad others can be. But once again if you don't like it, leave :)
Hope you get the returns you are looking for elsewhere.
Jamesss. Agreed fella, a takeover bid or any other positive news would be welcomed from the share holders and have a nice boost, deffo Needs some decent news and momentum to get a consistent rise
Dear All, these fora are to share info, views on a business and as investing is a personal thing we must welcome different views to sharpen our own convictions and perhaps even adjust. There are daytraders here and LTH like me convinced that the turn will be made. One of the most important things in investing is to stay calm, even when you are at a loss. I would really much appreciate that all of you here respond to others how you would like to be talked to. Perhaps you might learn something. Thank you.
What are you thoughts on the chart?
All or nothing, I will be leaving shortly as there’s only a limited number on people of this sub who are adults and can have a conversation with. Rest are just clueless who write pointless waffle and argue as soon as some one says something bad about a stock that’s been on a constant downwards slide for 10 years
Not perfect, never said I was, I’ve been in our and of rolls a couple of times but managed to make about 25k over the lady 3 years.
Difference is I set stops, as I did with jd at 165, thankfully it dropped which presented me with a great opportunity.
GLA and follow winners not losers. Even if you went into rolls Royce 6 months ago you’d be 194 percent up compared to 47 down. Bet your portfolio looks excellent
I think if we can get a consistent run of positive news i.e good figures,Indian deals, reduction in interest rates, then the shorts will leave and the media will actually start reporting some truth filled/balanced articles.
mikehr1991 - the biggest bull****ter i've come across.
have a read through his posting history!
what a balloon!
Mike I thought you were off to JD? What are you doing here if you don't see value in the company? Ah I guesd you are one of those that perfectly buys in at the bottom and sells at the top. Or only buys the successfully already turned-around stocks as a LTH (RR went up and down too). Go back to buying JD mate, you clearly don't like the update or this company. Oh and hopefully you've closed your short here too.. :)
I sold up at 380 yesterday and quickly back entered at 364, sold again in the afternoon for 383 again. I’ve always been in asos mainly with the play money. It’s so volatile as soon as I hit my target usually around 7 percent I sell out.
I agree about every dog has it’s day. I’ve been in rolls from 90 p when it was a dog, still hold a fair chunk now! I love a good turn around stock but not sure if this is the one
LWHL said yesterday about not seeing enough from The updated to make him invest, which was exactly what I thought too. I might keep playing with a bit here and there if I see an opportunity as the bottom of the range and look to hold for a day or 2 but I’m not investing here for any longer. Might provide some nice swings now we have some volume.
The shorts haven’t reduced either which always makes me a bit nervous and will hold it back until they close