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6p would be horrendous result. If our assets are let go at that price we will have been robbed.
Graham. This speculation about share price is bonkers unless you have some knowledge of the "imminent" results. Nick set some high upper expectations a while ago but there is no way of knowing for sure what we have in the ground. So let's see where we go. Having said that, 6p would be a very poor return indeed given the earlier results, the good discoveries at adjacent areas and previous commentaries from management. I have a 16p minimum target but this is inherently speculative. Like all holders I'd like more but given all the other action in the mining space right now, it 6p would be a real disappointment.
I'd be very disappointed if this was 16p for full sale. As nic said people go into miners for 10 baggers or more. I think we will get there
depending of course grades continue. I've always believed the Chinese will end up taking it
We're not North of 6p, we're at 4p and stuck!
Fair enough. Targets will be different for everyone. I personally believe we are way north of that. Whether it’s seen of course is subject to many variables. After my 9 year investment here, it has to be at least for my sanity haha.
Definitely, I'd make £25k and move on
No sarcasm intended, but you’d take 6p - after converting to GBP, factoring in our licence stake, and fully diluted? Even at $150m directly to Arc after factoring the above would be a poor outcome.
Keep going! I think Anglo will take the lot after looking at it further. Too messy with the landscape to split. My wild guess is: they are offering $100m for the lot... Nick is at $300m..... they are thrashing it out to find the deal. Maybe we need Trump to teach us the art!
I don't think this will be the huge transaction people are after... if we get $150m we should snap their hands off.
Anglo can then take several years to figure the rest out.....
Surely we will hear something before the AGM?
It is happening shortly after all!
@graham everything crossed but beginning to lose the feeling in my legs & fingers
Whatever the form of transaction I hope everyone will agree that one or two of the more developed assets will drive the valuation and these will be the ones that AA want to take forward and mine. Equally IMHO we have 2 very large licence areas with other prospective discoveries / targets that still require further exploration to realise any sensible value. So why as part of a transaction would ARCM include those non-core areas effectively for free? There are alternatives!
My best guess ... tweaked
(1) partial sale comfortably north of £200m (ARC=5-bag) for one of our assets so AAL can go build their mine
or (2) Earn-In of one of our assets with AA paying CAPEX/OPEX taking 75% to DFS & OMI style staged payments to ARCM (say £6m over 2 years) with first refusal on balance at full market value
then later ....
(3) ARCM progress one or more targets to PFS/DFS and sale using (1) or (2) proceeds
and/or (4) 3rd party Earn-In to prove up one or more targets to PFS/DFS then sale or equity partner with 3rd party as operator for future revenue stream
(5) wash and repeat in Zambia
(6) line up new prospective assets as capital allows and repeat (1) to (5) above
Just saying ... as picks up on @olderand wiser's comments ... thanks for keeping me honest!
There are other Copper focused explorers doing exactly what ARCM are doing in Zambia such as AIM:CCZ but they have just started surveys & soil sampling campaign.
APR
Nick said 10 bag, 20 bag or nothing in the Crux interview.
Given that Cheyeza East does cover the current mcap we could all be looking at handsome returns. The Fwiji samples do look good, the company is bullish, let's hope this one lands.
GLA
To my mind there is absolutely no doubt that AA will put forward some sort of business transaction, the big question is will their valuation come close to the Arc board's valuation.
Just my view but I think Nick and Remy have big numbers in mind and I don't think AA will offer enough, that would open it up to other players and it could be the Chinese who eventually get it.
The current valuation of Arc is ridiculously low given the assets they have. I am pretty sure on the Crux Investor interview Nick said that Cheyza East on its own was worth the current market cap, with everything else thrown in for nothing.
If you start from a base point that is so low, it is easy to see that this will realise many multiples of the current share price. On the same interview Nick said that it could be a 10 bagger or even a 20 bagger.
Taking into account the number of shares fully diluted, my guess is 16p a share for a full sale.
If I was AAL, I would not offer Arcm a windfall cheque for the whole amount of one Tier 1 prospect, but do a Newc rest/GGP type deal with an earn in to a majority position over time as further drilling process up the resource to a mine decision status. I just don't believe that AIM businesses get 4 or 5 times market valuation uplifts like you are hoping for.
My 'bet' is if ARCM are following their stated strategy of 'explore, develop, realise value' (my precis) then:
(1) partial sale comfortably north of £200m for one of our assets so AAL can go build their mine
(2) ARCM sort out an Earn-In to prove up the balance of our assets to line them up for a sale
This threads a sensible path to getting best value for our assets over time on a jam 'imminently' and jam 'shortly' basis as NvS would doubtless say! Any sale above £200m is a minimum 5-bag from current SP and not to be sniffed at as there will still be more to come!
APR
IMO AAL will have been bidding/negotiating before the conf. agreement ,it will be NvS that has slowed down the conversations subject to more detail on the assets.
I've personally never been in an active explorer where slow news is a good thing... I hope I'm wrong. If we have results they need to be released, we own the land not AA.
I am starting to think AA have moved from looking to negotiating. Cant be long now until we get the results and AAs proposals.
Really hope they want to fast track us to production to capitalize on the copper demand expected over the next decade.
The soil results are back and being interpreted....
I think they are thrashing out a deal.
It might not be the $600m people were after but I think we are all onto a winner here.
My read on it , a slow news feed being a very positive thing. Big goings on back stage.
If things were poor, AA wouldn’t be seen for dust.
It is in Arc's interest to get the drill results in the public domain. The more people that know the drill results, assuming they are good, the better.
Conversely if AA are looking to do a deal quickly they won't want them released. It is human nature they will want to get the assets for as low a price as possible, in their shoes we would as well.
If AA can table a bid before the results are published it decreases the chances of a counter bid from another major. As other majors are not getting access to the data room they are relying on the hype the same as us.
If Arc has price sensitive information, like positive drill results, they should release it to the market. Something has gone wrong and it is probably broken promises from the lab that made Nick say shortly and then not deliver.
I see the soil samples differently because AA paid for them. I think for that reason they will get the results and Nick is waiting on them to release them to him, hence the second delay on imminently.
Agree Peggy
ARCM tweet from 2 hours ago
https://twitter.com/ArcMinerals/status/1319525971372986374?s=20
You don't send a tweet like that if you have (or expect) what you would consider poor to be results.
I dont think there struggling to get results, i think they are struggling to agree everything with AA, they will want the lot for peanuts.
People are not stupid (well most) in the end they probably will sell out, it is difficult to keep the patience especially when you get silly comments stating shortly or imminently. The only thing that is sure to be shortly or imminently is the price its either going to fly or die.