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That's the spirit F29. Our pay day is not far away. Arc has so far made for my recent Pensana misadventure, so I am already celebrating.
Hi Eloro,they don't "cast a long cloud".It's quite the opposite- we are elated with what is starting to happen here, and after years of their utter bs,we are merely chuffed that they didn't have the effect they tried to achieve and are enjoying rubbing it into their grubby ugly barking mad faces. Bare a grudge me ...?
Seis-if your overlays are telling a story this could turn out to be my wildest fantasy.
My modest holdings are tucked away in my SIPP since Ortac days so I'm in no rush and I won't be selling anytime soon. I managed a 12-Bag on my GGP shares and see no reason why ARC can't do the same as the AAL $74m drilling programme plays out leaving ARC with its 30% free carry and $11m cash from the deal. https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-anglo-american-return-zambia-with-arc-minerals-copper-deal-2022-05-12/
My expectation is AAL will accelerate drilling with aim to prove up at least one Tier 1 target over he next 2-3 years and it will be interesting to see how they move to production given the number of nearby copper production facilities that could be used for toll-milling to achieve an early route to revenue albeit at lower margin.
The parallels with Greatland Gold and NCM at Telfer should not be lost on PIs investing here.
ATB APR
Congratulations F29. Been awhile since I found the David Wood lecture, and now Anglo have played their hand.
What I don't get is why you gents are allowing Ella and China's antics cast a dark cloud over what is cause for celebration? Forget them and look towards the promised land. Does anyone think that NvS is Ruffles as signalled by NvS use of the promised land term?
Yes, it will take time cattleman but I do believe we should be at a higher base price already.
F29 and Kully, regarding Remy, exactly. That is also a factor as to why I strongly think best case is higher. However as said, that depends on various factors.
FWIW I'd agree F29 if it got to that stage we would likely be offered a deal on it all.
I can't wait for AA to drill the areas like Swiss cheese. They'll need to to spend the commited cash.
Shouldn't be long now, they wanted to get going asap and in a few weeks a couple weeks ago.
Thanks for the clarification Kully-it's almost like there was a plan when at the 2019 AGM with the sp @3.5p Nick said we could well see the sp 10or20 times where it is now (or nothing)-One of those 3 options I feel has now been ruled out :-)) I'm still waiting to buy more @ 1.6 though!.
Remy stated that if we find one Sentinel Mine deposit on the licenses, it would be worth $5bn. And he then said that NPV of 30%=$1.5bn to Arcm. Considering that Cheyeza alone could have 5-10m tonnes of copper, also quoted by Remy in 2020 Indaba Conference. Then 'all eyes on the drilling', and ignore the noise of the peeps who spoke so negatively to us for over 10 months. Never forget the rubbish we endured from the Troll's, it was every other day. Placing incoming. No deal with a Major. Casa sale will never happen. Casa liabilities will be not part of the Casa sale,but paid by Arcm. No grades on the licenses, yet on Cheyeza East some of the best grades out of Africa. Licenses have been rearranged, and we own a lot less. 800km2 - 8km2= 792km2,just 1% in deal with former director. Etc etc etc. Same hypicorites now bought in, and keeping quiet.
Fuku-I am not a great one for forecasting prices.I have always had my own minimum which I now feel confident we will exceed comfortably,but with regard to your 50p for multi Tier 1s. During the CC Remy alluded to one Tier one having a face value of $5b (from memory) and a 30% stake in that would be equiv to 75p per share .There are a few factors that could reduce that a bit ,but it seems he thinks 50p would be achievable for a single Tier1.It's not worth thinking too much about multiples as we would be taken out well before that became common knowledge-but let's start drilling and we can dream after that.GLA
One step at a time...this market is poor but what we now know now is we have solid foundations and very clear road ahead ...but of course i hope your correct..... but i think it will take time....
Tomyra I think that's a fair expectation.
Although IMO best case of multi tier one id expect more upside tbh. As you point out this deal is very similar to GGP, albeit IMO ARCM deal is slightly better.
GGP is a good one to compare against from 2019. Their share also dipped after deal then rose on drilling and results etc.
Obviously GGP have 3-4x shares in issue of ARCM.
So imo I agree we 'should' rise ahead of confirmation and drill plan/commencement RNS(s).
Then it's down to the results. I like to manage my expectations but best case if multi tier ones I'd expect higher than 50p tbh. But no guarantees of course and it's the risk we take.
Downside has been reduced with the cash element of the JV and pending transactions of non core assets.
Next news up will be finalised JV, drill plan and commencement, casa update, acquisition of more area in Zambia and a plan for Botswana, and then drill results rolling in.
Hopefully this will be all good and sufficient to maintain shareprice growth for us all.
Atb
For me its an investment...the blossom set a long time ago...the bees have been to work and its now growing its fruit, harvest will be when they have matured and are worth picking...could be 12mths or 2/3 years...but i am nearly garanteed a good crop...
Tomrya-" Worst case they don't find much" "-every drill (everywhere) so far has intercepted mineralization" and if they don't find "the mother load" then we are still looking at a huge area of shallow depth sulphide type deposits which would be worth significantly north of where we are now.The only scenario I could envisage 2p in is war in Zambia,luckily Putin isn't too close ! AAL know there are mines there or they wouldn't be bothering.
Recent note from WH Ireland
https://twitter.com/ArcMinerals/status/1530075076179247104?s=20&t=F_3_pDW9XDB65UBeZC0X0A
IMO 10p short term on signing of deal, confirmation of drill campaign starting.
After that it’s kind of an open ender… best case they find multiple tier 1 deposits perhaps 50p?
Worst case they don’t find much 2p
Pretty good risk vs reward I reckon.
ggp went up 20x when the good drill results started rolling in in a similar Jv
Are there any broker price targets for Arc be them short, mid or long term? Or what targets have you guys set yourselves?