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I will hold my breath on that one... not that it matters too much...Golds higher now...so we will wait and see
We also we should have $5m coming from casa deal on 19th March 2021.
@SeisNav I think you are right, it is the downside risk of AAL walking away that keeps the SP in check as NvS has covered off (almost) everything else. If the AAL deal shape, scope and value were known then we would not be having these discussions and the MCap would be comfortably £120m+.
IMHO my Transaction risk analysis between ARCM & AAL can be summarised as:
> Proximity = Announcement likely in next 0 to 3 months
> Probability =Upto 5% chance that AAL might walkaway or 20% chance they offer an initial deal that NvS will not find acceptable (cue start of haggling!) as AAL want to drive a hard bargain !
> Impact = If 'No Deal' then SP will be hard hit & may retrace upto 50%
> Mitigations ... NvS has been VERY busy with these to minimise chance/impact of above to ARCM !
1) Sticky Money = bring on HH to boost shareholder list, reduce free float so boost SP
2) Revenue = Upgrade Kalaba plant capacity & confirm routemap to 'production ready'
3) Cash = Placing completed and confirmed fully funded for 2 years
4) Licences = controlling 70% interest confirmed
5) BoD = boost membership including financing & country specialists
6) PR = advertise we require any offer to provide decent shareholder value (minimum 10x stated repeatedly by NvS)
7) Debt Facility = Kalaba plant debt funding being explored to avoid dilution
8) Scoping Study = layout independent analysis of production capability, revenue and cash generation (FCF) capability
Obviously AIMHO & DYOR APR
“ So why isn’t the current price higher?”
I don’t think the big money will come in until any perceived risk is minimised. Assuming a deal of some sort is agreed (and barring any issues with the corporate due diligence I don’t see why it wouldn’t be agreed) then the share price will start to rise. Now is the opportunity for retail investors to do some research and get in ahead of the big boys. For me, everything I’ve seen points to this being one of the best opportunities on AIM but everyone has to look at the evidence and make their own investment decision.
I was asking the same question last year about another of my holdings, Jubilee Metals. Since then its up nearly 400% :-)
The simple answer to your question is that ARC is only at the beginning of what could be transformational deal (no guarantee attached of course....)
It's all about speculate to accumulate, or if you like accumulate to speculate....both option are with realistic chance to be handsomely rewarded....IMHO.
The choice is yours ,as always DYOR,and Gl.
I think because it does not appear in stock screens. Future plant,AA rns,potential of drill results
I only found this due to a tweet
SeisNav
“but I think its safe to say it will be multiples of the current price”
So why isn’t the current price higher?
Eua were not 3p when suspended they were 7.2 and opened up at 15p. Arcm is well worth getting involved with Rusty the rerate has barely began.
Thanks Tom, another helpful poster
EUA were 3.5. when suspended,came back @ around 7p and carried on from there,we could have the same scenario
Longfell why be hilarious I’m only asking. Others thanks for the info...
kiwara was paid £208m ($260m) by FQM for similiar licence back in 2009 when copper prices were around $6,000/t.
Thats why zaco/zamsort will be worth multiples of current share price.
Really?
It’s impossible to say what the share price will be as we don’t know what kind of deal AA will want to do but I think its safe to say it will be multiples of the current price....
My opinion only of course!
You're best to stick with eua, you've missed the boat here lol
Hello is it too late to invest here? Is the SP now similar to what everyone is expecting the FSP to be? I’m in EUA which is in a similar position. It’s still worth getting involved there so just wondered if it was the same here?