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Interesting post, Arkonite.
I think American stocks always fall the first and fastest. The beauty is that they always recover the first and fastest too. If bitcoin does eventually decouple from SPY then they could be the perfect stocks for the depression as they will be among the few to make decent, reliable profits. Ultimately, quality will win this race and Argo currently lead in this respect though the longer we stay out of the US with such a depressed MCAP it will remain difficult to raise cash and scale up. Mr Tillman made this excellent point in his first post here.
Other markets: Nikkei - is it spunky or staid? Hang Seng - risk of China, Aussie - casinos all over the place, maybe they love to speculate? NIFTY - I have heard this is a bit gambly too.
But for me, NASDAQ is king. Riot and Mara are testament to that.
My thoughts on the matter...
The Macro-economy in crypto:
Fiat is on a race to zero, and the dollar will lead the way.
In the next depression, US stocks will fall the hardest and from the highest ramped PE values you can muster.
Crypto miners with ties to the US / dollar will be impacted the greatest IMO.
Hence my reluctance to favour the US dual listing argument.
Slow and steady win the race. Let this one play out on the LSE with time and we will get there on reasonable terms, and in a reasonable time frame. Be it with less tech agile investors.
Looking to dual list another country without a listed miner? A possibility I could consider.
Geopolitically:
Think about the recent Bitmain delays to US firms - think that may be a coincidence? They site "external interference over the company's management". We all know the share and subsequent influence the Chinese miners exert over the BTC space, and thus the influence that the China government may have on its own miners when the price of the crypto MCAP balloons cannot be understated. Best we stay well out of the tit for tat that may be about to kick off over the next cycle. Although GB seems to be entering the political fray, Canada is fairly neutral as of now as I've said before.
ARB is placed fairly well in relation to the above. Additionally it has by far the best buy in price and fundamentals (and BB community ofc) compared to any other miner TSX / NASDAQ elsewhere that I can find.
Have a good weekend GLA. IMO ATB.
No I agree with you Poptimist. I don't mean to sound argumentative!
No problems with that at all. After all, I did swear to my dear wife "To have and to hold"! Plus bitcoin, gold and silver are about all there is right now to do so. Savings accounts for fiat holdings are a joke that's gone very sour indeed. May I suggest, Bill, we're on a similar page, if not the same exact chapter!
I am going to run the risk of sounding like a broken record here that has never stopped me gobsh.iting before so here goes:
This guy was in North America so he had never even heard of Argo. Even once I told him about Argo he had zero interest in them because they aren't listed in NA and are not on Robinhood. To him Argo could be the biggest and best miner ever but because it's located on Mars it's completely worthless. To 99% of NA private investors Argo may as well be on Mars.
I brought up the case for HUT8 merely to show how important hodling was to the overall investment case.
Thanks, Bill. I do see your argument clearly. My only gripe is really with those who bad mouth ARB without researched comparison. I'm not a ramper by nature, at all. However I do look hard at where I place my trust and risk. Highly indebted companies are to be carefully handled. Mind you, only 3 paid employees and a CEO on just over a $100k per annum is impressive.
Not way beyond Poptimist, that's the point. With $28m of debt and 3000BTC they are currently covered and any gain in BTC is added to the value of the company. If BTC stayed at 10k until March next year they would need to liquidate their crypto. But if it keeps rising they will keep most above 10k. Their loan is at 9.5%.
I'm not suggesting for a moment it's a solid business. Far from it. I'm just hoping to show you guys how peeps in NA view risk and reward. The hodling is pivotal in their assessments. With 3000 semi-held BTC the market is willing to forgive many sins and value this turd at 200m CAD.
Hut 8 are indebted way beyond their btc holdings. Desperate for new machines, now rare and hard to get as Bitmain is on hold right now. If people knew the superior status of ARB compared to Hut 8, there would be a deluge of transfers from Hut 8 to ARB, regardless of which exchange. Sure holding btc as it verges on a major rise is good. However think of your personal finances. A million in cash but 2 million owed to creditors, mortgage, bank loans, car lease payments plus grocery bills soaring and inflation about to eat up the value of the fiat cash, where to go?
I had a not very pleasant convo with an arrogant trader who made money on HUT8. They actually hold 3000BTC of which 2800 are held as collateral to Genesis for debt of $28m. So this guy was not bothered in slightest at their derisory efficiency of 9PH/MW as he was effectively gambling on a quick appreciation of BTC. At 100k BTC HUT8s hodlings would be 300m so they could pay their creditors off and still hold $270m cash and that's with all their machines turned off for a year!
Just goes to show the weight the market puts on hodlings. For this reason I think it might be wise for the BOD to spend one or two months adding to the hodl pile after the Z11s have been paid off. This market should respond positively to this especially if we do move to NA. I would think the market approximates our 73 held BTC as "nothing". 500 held BTC would be "something".