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I agree that TA does have a role in trading for predicting short term movements, so especially useful for traders. For LTHs I would question its use though compared to the fundamentals of the business. That's not through a lack of understanding. I'm a mathematician, so have no problem with that but its exactly because of my background that I become sceptical that just because something happened in the past that it will tell the future accurately. As you say it is a tool, based on probabilities etc. and can be a handy one to have in the bag, but too many posters dress these possibilities up as facts and that's when I tend to get annoyed. In your case though it was more because it was pretty much to me stating the obvious i.e. if the price breaks to 142p it should get to 210p. I think that's a fairly safe bet for a stock that's been 210p not so long ago and where the fundamentals are stronger now (just BTC that is weaker at the moment).
Hexam, it is very much ok, most do not understand T.A.
T.A is pure mathematics, all the indicators used in T.A are pure complex mathematics, examples of are MACD, SMA, RSI, Fib Entrancement, etc. etc.
T.A uses these mathematical indicators to predict/forecast the next most likely move, it is all about likelihood, percentages of event occurring, not about will be this or that. T.A will give a an advantage in trading over not using it. It certainly can not give you 100% accuracy, no indicator/model no matter how complex can you you 100% or even 90% certainty . just give you more chances of being correct than not.
Good luck as we all need it :-)
Hi ZQ,
Sorry if I offended at all but to me TA is very much like using a crystal ball. The fortune teller mixes some detail (e.g. precisely 152p and 210p) amongst the vagueness (such as timescale) and with alternatives (in this case it might go down to 60p instead). So pretty much all bases covered.
My point is simply that it is, like a crystal ball, guesswork and I’d rather put my faith in the fundamentals which to me suggest much more than £2 within 12 months (though not of course guaranteed). But each to their own.
I agree though that psychology (with a push from the mms) has a big part to play, especially in the short term and that it (and BTC price) are probably the two biggest factors in explaining the violent short term ups and downs.
I had the wrong T & A in my head lol
"210p by when? "
This was T.A not Crystal Ball analysis. However the answer o your question is, we will be on an uptrend trajectory to 210p within a reasonable time frame, no one can tell you a date, etc.
T.A is based on current chart patterns which predicts the price movement based on human psychology among others, the other factors are the fundamentals and macro news, the macro bits are including the movement in BTC price . I thought I made all of that very clear that the forecast as far as I can see for fundamentals and macro are looking positive, but obviously not guaranteed.
I never claimed the prize for crystal ball prediction. T.A is one of the tools to help you to make an informed decisions in your trading strategy, that is all. :-)
210p by when? This time next year? If so then I will be very disappointed if it is only that much by then as the fundamentals suggest to me that it should be much higher than that (assuming BTC plays ball even just a little but).
I can see some value in applying TA to bitcoin (and then assessing what that might mean to ARB) but not to ARB directly. It's stage of development and in particular its strong and rapidly improving financials will in my view be the key driver, not what the price action has been in the recent past. The 'unknown' and big influence is BTC price and there TA may be of use but it seems to always come with ifs and buts and consequently ends up with different answers that roughly translate as anything might happen.
A bit of light T.A to add to your macro and fundamental analysis. Obviously it is not guaranteed as macro and fundamentals will have much impact too.
We have been in a symmetrical triangle pattern since mid May, we are approaching the apex of the triangle within the next few days. A symmetrical triangle is a bullish continuation chart pattern if the movement preceding the triangle's formation was also bullish. The preceding price movement was unfortunately bearish. However, I strongly believe the macro and fundamental aspects are very bullish. So if we crack the 142 - 145p, then we have a confirmation that the trend will be up
On that above basis I believe the price target is around 210p.
If we go down, price target is 60p, but as I said, it is much more likely that we will move up to over 200 pence.
Fingers crossed :)
Not financial advice, just financial opinion, DYOR