We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Albert, before these events BTC/ARB were very closely aligned. I understand for the LTH these RNS’s aren’t much of an issue but they also released an RNS on 16/02 re: no fundamental reason for the spike in SP. These were Short term traders looking to double their money in super quick time and got spooked. I don’t think one factor alone has caused it but many. It was an exciting share to be a part of and the volatility was/is a drug to many STH. I personally feel we are better off without this type of investor and hope the shares available are snapped up by those with a longer term outlook.
Mittenator,
A few people have said the same, but the majority understand that this is normal and it's how businesses grow while rewarding seed investors and senior staff.
All miners are in a slump, so you can't blame this on the Argo placing, warrants or options.
Look back couplenof weeks and see the predictions £5 was the lowest by now...
Enough said.
As Wexboy the only knowledgeable here thebrest are daydreamer. Seemed yuiuiu.
You can report if you want lol
Saby
RNS 25th Feb: Exercise of Options, Warrants and PDMR Dealings - of course this will affect SP and did.
RNS 8th March: Placing - of course this will affect SP and did.
The cumulative effect caused a sharp drop/ correction - whatever you want to call it. We’re only a matter of weeks from this and sentiment/confidence takes time to recover.
This, imo, is why there was a temporary conscious uncoupling in BTC/ARB relationship. But there are obvious signs that both feel the marriage is worth fighting for and rise/fall alignment is creeping back.
@Saby, no one can predict the future. Go and deramp somewhere else. I feel sorry for you, this share will be at least £3 by July! Let's so how silly this prediction is in July.
Enough playing by silly predictions!!
This share since late February isn't following BTC. Also there is no guarantee this will see 300p+ anytime soon.
Just think 3p-300p within 12 months!!!
One other thing. If you are looking to get your money back quickly, this is the share for you. The volatility works both ways remember.
Xenor
before you decide what is the best decision for your situation, please have a look back over the previous BTC bull run charts and the after periods, both 2013 and 2017 had very similar characteristics.
in May 2017 BTC was circa $2K which then extended up to over $19k in December 2017 at the peak of the bull, even though the crash afterwards was severe it dropped to a lowest value of $3k for the period in between until the start of this bull run.
My point is that the crash that followed, the low was still 50% higher than the price in May 17 at the early point of the Bull run, and it showed the same characteristics on the previous run.
so the crash expected later in 21 or early 22 if follows previous then the lows could potentially still be higher than the current price. So even in a crash ARB would still remain hugely profitable.
wish you all the best whatever path your investment takes.
thanks
Xenor, I can empathise but have found the grass is not always greener elsewhere. All stocks are traded, have ups and downs but I do think, especially when the loss is big - ON PAPER remember - the danger is selling out and going all in on a whim elsewhere in an attempt to recoup losses. It rarely works. Take a deep breath, look at your ARB investment, you haven’t lost anything and my advice, for what it’s worth, is sit tight and in relatively no time at all, you’ll be glad you HEDL ; )
This BB consists of some of the most upbeat, optimistic and positive folk around - good on you!
@Xenor, I am sorry to hear that the stock isn't for you, however I would not despair in recovering your original stake and stay if you can bear the volatility. I genuinely believe that the fundamentals are good and that it will increase in value in unexpected ways once BTC stops going sideways. I am not an investment banker like SABY/Tiger and I am not a financial advisor. I do however evaluate busineses and optimise P&L's and complete due diligent audits during M&A's and work with the banks. During my 30 years as a transformation consultant I have never seen such sound fundamentals and been able to invest (considered as insider trading when I have completed the audits and recommendations) I have been able however to do dd because of the transparent accounting pioneered by Argo.. I hope this reassures you and many of the derampers on this board will think this this is BS, as well as some of the rampers. This is everybody's perogative on this board and I am not interested in convincing anyone about my experience or qualifications. But keep the faith and exit within 2 months time if you like!
Xenor something maybe to think about is what Peter calls smart growth we currently mine bitcoin and a bit of Zcash but may well move into other coins if they are profitable . I think that texas will be 50 50 between BTC and other coins IMO and even if BTC does drop back next year at 10000 USD current costs then we are still massively profitable at 20K USD etc . The hash rate is something like 4 times what we have now so that should somewhat allay your fears about a price drop for BTC plus the difficulty may get easier as other less efficient miners drop off or go elsewhere . Anyway good luck what ever you decide. Me personally I am waiting for the June rigs to be installed
Xenor, don't focus on how much you have lost.
If you're 35% down on say £100k, you now have £65k in ARB. If you don't feel comfortable with ARB, sell and put your £65k somewhere else. If you're correct about ARB, you will have a better chance of making your £35k loss back.
Most PIs make this mistake, especially me in the past.
Good luck whatever you choose.
Thanks for clearing that up Hexam. I was concerned as I had hear elsewhere that the miners are very over due to not having revenue in the traditional way (selling what they produce). And I figured that might help explain the collapse we are seeing. But if that isn't the case then I can only put it down to sentiment and rainbow chasing.
The share price concerns me because even though I sold some for a 15% loss a few weeks ago I am still sat on a big loss with the rest. Must be about 35% now. I do agree that value does come to shares eventually and the strong profits should help that value be realised. But my biggest fear isn't necessarily the rainbow chasers heading to alt coins and trading this stock up and down. It's bitcoin itself. This bull cycle will end at some point this year and crypto will go out of fashion until 2024 as happened after 2017. This stock will plummet at that point and we'll be sat on bigger losses than we currently are. I could well be wrong and bitcoin won't crash like that but it has in the past. People predicting £10 per share by the end of this year never take that into account.
I've learnt this stock is not for me. It's too volatile. When I bought into it, it was roughly following bitcoin movements in the 200-250p range and was quite predictable. Now it goes up and down based on traders, falls when bitcoin falls but doesn't rise when bitcoin rises. I'm happy to admit the stock isn't for me but I can't exit at these levels. Hopefully the price will rise at the end of the month when all the IIs buy in and I'll have a chance to get out. Good luck to all who have diamond hands and decide to hold longterm.
Xenor, it's your money and therefore your choice.
Please sell up and leave those deluded fools like me to wait in peace until BTC and Argo blow everyone's socks off.
sorry - should read subsequent changes in fair value recognised directly in profit or loss
That's correct Xenor. I must admit it was a surprise to me as I thought it would just sit on the balance sheet too but to quote the wording in the accounts it "acts as in the capacity of a commodity-broker-trader" which allows it to value BTC at fair value when it is mined with subsequent changes in gains and losses recognised directly in profit or loss.
In this way it recorded £0.3m of loss in 2019 and £2m of profit in 2020 from such changes in value. It is also uses futures, swaps and options to mitigate risk.
Like you I am frustrated by the SP at the moment as it is so driven by sentiment/fashion and people chasing rainbows to use your phrase. What keeps me reassured though is that the financials are so strong and in the end the SP should reflect these. I have projected estimated profits for ARB which I would never dream of doing for more traditional companies but here the business is so simple and the information so available. Of course you have to make assumptions (most notably future BTC value) but my own estimates suggest this stock is very undervalued. I could be wrong of course but I can only go on my own judgements. Good luck with yours and whatever you decide.
@Hexam: So bitcoin does count as earnings even if they don't sell it? I was starting to think it might be more like an asset. Like if a gold miner didn't sell any of the gold it produces.
I find it hard to be optimistic about this industry any more. It seems to be too many private investors chasing rainbows and right now that is alt coins. Lots of people trading this share too which is annoying. Just look at today's chart. It will look similar tomorrow. I'm going to sell and move on once I get back within a 15% loss window (189p) but I fear we might not see those highs again anytime soon. The loss is too much right now. Hopefully we get some NASDAQ news soon so I can use that to exit.
Argo are one of the partners if you scroll down.
https://texasblockchaincouncil.org/#!event-list
Rory - agree but as I mentioned below they also have plenty of normal cash as well to pay overheads at the moment. Also these overheads are currently small (only £2.4m in the whole of 2020).
And the last BTC will be mined in 2140 - no need to worry about it.
Good job there are other cryptocurrencies out there too - and I think some of these will gradually overtake BTC in terms of profitability.
So, at the moment ARB could draw down from the debt facility or sell ZCash to pay overheads etc.
I think they use ZCash to pay the mining costs which is the 15% (PW explained this in a Q&A), and hodl whatever is left.
The thing is that anyone investing in a company like ARB needs to think long term and radically. More and more companies are starting to accept it as payment, others are using it as a store of value (and hedge against inflation), and Texas is currently trying to legislate to more or less recognise some cryptocurrencies as formal currency that can be used to pay for goods and services just as the $ currently is.
So, in the not too distant future, ARB may not need to sell BTC/ZEC/whatever we mine in Texas to keep the lights on, they may be able to just use it to make payments - the same way they currently pay PW in BTC.
No problem Mittenator.
I must admit I had the same questions too, especially around its level of expenses and if, how and why it can recognise changes in the value of BTC. The answers though are in the company's detailed report and accounts along with lots of other interesting stuff (like breakdown of crypto assets held and the fact they use futures to hedge against HODL value). So well worth a read if you get a moment - though lots of dry bits as well to navigate!
Thanks for clarification Hexam