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Can't see a change in BTC price anytime soon as the Dominance is still dropping, down to 44.7 currently. Everybody still piling into ETH and Altcoins. Hopefully we get a change around soon, although I'm torn as I'm doing well with the crypto just now.
I’m confused by all these price detachment messages by people. Compare the BTC chart for the last month against the charts for ARB and RIOT. They aren’t like for like down to specific valuations, but the general price action is the same. It’s loose but it’s aligned to an extent because there are still many traders in these stocks using them as proxies for Bitcoin. Saying that, the investors are probably increasing and the short term / day traders decreasing because BTC is moving sideways and has for some time. But one move back up, which I still believe is happening soon and I’m not alone, and they’ll be back because ARB and RIOT will be shiny again.
I feel at the moment that the company is like an adolescent, caught in a difficult growing phase between first, the exuberance of youth when most investors saw this as a straight crypto play and alternative to BTC (which may explain why the sp previously followed BTC so closely) and second, a more mature company that is traded on actual/expected performance.
Some of the kids though have got tired and moved onto other, newer, shinier toys. In the meantime, more serious investors have started to be attracted by the strong profit potential but many may still be put off by a suspicion/ignorance of BTC and a worry over its volatility. In this phase the sp is detached from BTC as opposing sentiments are ruling the day.
Once the profits become more visible I think the link with BTC will become re-established again, though not as closely as before, as clearly the financials are linked to BTC but it is not the only driver. The size of those profits should also ensure the sp is somewhat higher than in it is now.
All just theory of course and could be nonsense but seems to fit pretty well. If it is close to what is happening then could imagine this phase going on a few more months until nasdaq speeds up the access to that wider pool of investors or those bigger profits are reported and so become more transparent to the market.
I was also hoping to see SP at 300 before the year end, suggesting a cap over £1bn and 10 PE by then, but my crystal ball often needs re-polishing. I don't think it's at all unrealistic, and 100% return on today's entry point isn't out of the question either, unlike some of the posts on here IMHO.
The way we keep increasing our mining capacity and profit levels the market cap will catch up to reality. Rough calculations with bitcoin staying 50k usd. Mining 200 bitcoin a month from july mining margin 85%. 75million £ ayear. Meaning with 15 to 20 PE we should comfortably sit over £3.
Personally I can only see bitcoin moving higher than 50k usd and further expansion for ARGO meaning the £3 is a Conservative price based on facts of profit levels only. Not hype or imagination.
@AdeleK - I think that's a fair analysis and a sensible position. ARB looks like a strong company consolidated at a good entry point, which is probably where it should be if it's going to tempt the kind of investors needed for the next stage in its development. If BTC is going to follow the monthly peak cycle model then likely that will be towards the end of this week or next (followed by whatever adjustments fit the options due on Friday 28th). A good SP entry point and a high BTC price would be the sweet spot for pitching to new markets.
It has mapped BTC Jun-Feb ever since all over the place. Miners has grown in super quick speed outperforming BTC by 5-10x. Market has cooled down now.
I don’t think it’s that. Riot did the same thing. Compare Riot and Argo charts for last 6 months and it’s an almost identical move. The problem is that both were overbought and Riot at least was massively volatile due to huge amount of options trading. I sold Argo too soon and Riot too late but made a profit on both. I would buy both now as they’ve pretty much consolidated but I chose Argo because it’s a better company IMO. But both are loosely aligned to BTC price movement so unless you think BTC is going to correct before it’s next move up - I don’t but could be wrong of course - then this could be a good entry point, but with a degree of caution. :)
This was meant to move north when BTC hit 46 now we are headed for 60 try making it 100 and we might nudge up.
I don’t think BTC price has any real effect we just need more mining power and it’s coming:-) just time