Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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If they delay Galaxy loan update until the interims they're praying btc recovers! the longer the silence the longer the conjecture.
Oh i do love argos transparent ways !
Yeah not a lot more to say until then really.
Then it will be a wait until H1 to get clarity on financial position. Although it will still mostly be pre Helios, but at least will be able to see status of loans.
Thanks AB. I remember the 90% bitmain paid comment plus the 95% of the infrastructure being paid (which was good to hear). By my reckoning that still leaves around $20m-$25m funding for these bits plus whatever is remaining of the intel order - so could be up to $75m?
From what they were saying about further funding being split debt/BTC sales and that they can 'lean in or lean out' of the Intel order suggests that they don't have existing funds to pay for all this (which previously I thought they might).
It's going to be hard to raise any more debt in my view, especially given how little headroom on collateral they are likely to have now, so in the absence of any further update I think the more likely option is a delay to the intel order.
As to the Galaxy Loan I probably missed the reference to H1 as they were waffling on so much but this remains my biggest concern and so disappointed if we have to wait until the interims for an update.
The June update is only a few days away now so rather than speculate any more I'll just wait to see what it says. One thing for sure though is that it will provide a lot of talking points one way or another and I'm looking forward to it and dreading it in equal measure :)
Hexam, I just watched the Q&A (finally) - you won't get a Galaxy update next week, but you'll get that update on the Q2/H1 the following month.
The new hire is a derivatives specialist and has just started.
They said the 20,000 S19J Pro's are 90% paid in full, and the 200MW build out is 95% paid.
We'll get a general Helios update next week.
"They have employed someone new". Indeed, so maybe it's a case of them doing what they've already been doing only better hopefully as they now have a specialist on board. Maybe they will say something but I'm not holding my breath and will still prefer to hear anything that helps show that funding out the 200mW is still not (much of) an issue and that they've managed the risk of the Galaxy Loan in particular (by hedging, paying some down or whatever).
They have employed someone new, the job was posted on LinkedIn a while back. Was interesting, smart growth sort of stuff. Think we'll hear more...
"Especially anything about this hedging stuff."
Must admit I was a bit bemused when they waffled on about this at the Q&A in response to the questions around BTC and the Galaxy Loan - particularly as if it was something new. Maybe I was misunderstanding but they employ hedging already - as per accounts:
"These ‘digital assets’ can be subject to high levels of volatility, and it may not always be possible for the Group to trade out or effectively hedge its position. The Group will always seek to manage the price volatility risk and actively monitor its portfolio of digital assets."
And in 2021 hedging costs of £326k appeared under admin expenses. So I'm not expecting anything in particular on this but still hoping against they either state what action they've taken to reduce the risk from the Galaxy Loan (like BITF did) or why they don't need to.
I don’t think we’ll get any of those this month Hexam, maybe the TerraPool news, but I’d be pleasantly surprised if there was more.
I’m expecting mid-hundred for the mining numbers and an update on machines installed. Anything more than that will be bonus-ville for me.
I also want clarity on the pool - and expect around 200 also. Any additional updates would be very welcome. Especially anything about this hedging stuff.
I’m not expecting fireworks on the numbers but am at least hoping for back nearer 200 than 124. The ‘reassurance’ I’m looking for is an update on the terrapool issue, the Galaxy Loan and maybe a funding update. Silly I know!
I don’t expect June to be any better than May with regards to BTC per EH.
I hold a good number of corz (less than 100k though), I see them as the next mara (but not so poorly run hopefully). I think when sentiment changes they'll initially outperform Argo %return wise and I can recycle profits elsewhere (probably Argo let's be honest lol). However I wonder what happens if the 50% hosted business gets into trouble and clients don't pay. I guess they become self miners. But same as you Hexam I'm not as experienced with them and there are still some doubts but probably no more than other miners on balance. Certainly can't dispute their mined coins per month.
HC - I still believe in ARB but you are right I do think some US miners are probably better placed to ride this out and are potentially better value with respect to their growth plans. However, as I've said before, it is about more than just current/future headline numbers and immediate apparent risk. To choose a different miner I would want to research it so that I understand it as much as I think I understand ARB and then make the call (if to me it is clear cut). I will probably start with BITF and CORZ as they look most promising.
But in the meantime I want to avoid any nasty surprises and don't want to just jump out of the frying pan into the fire. Besides, until recently my platform didn't allow investment in international shares so I didn't have that choice!
If you really believe all that Hexam then at least in your eyes there is very little reason to be holding Argo over the giant North American miners now… We all agree that the upside for the likes of Corz is many times that of Argo at today’s prices (e.g mining 1200 coins a month, 8000 HODL and <2.5 times Argo market cap) whilst potentially very similar downside risks if BTC were not to recover in the next six months…
Hexam, I think pinning hopes on June’s update for some sort of comfort maybe slightly “wishful thinking” as I can’t see the current climate being conducive to that, but you never know.
You have mentioned that you don’t feel there is much danger to ARB right now, other then operational adjustments/curtailments, as/if they are necessary, I agree with you there as well.
Focus has quite rightly been on Helios and will continue to be so until it’s up and running as they’d like it, it’ll be interesting to see how many machines they have installed in the next update.
I hold ARB and BTC in crypto and that’s it, I wouldn’t touch any other miner with anyone else’s barge pole right now, but then I’m long here so would say that.
Most if not all miners have/had debt linked to their hodl/rigs, ARB’s hodl is lower than others but it’s moot unless you know exactly how much of it they’ll need to use above the monthly mined amount, and the current cash flow requirements will be clearer with updated numbers.
I agree that you need to keep an eye on what’s in front of you, however investing long term does generally mean you will experience up and down cycles and the choice whether to sell up and run (loss or not) rather than stick and buy depends on your attitude to risk, your level of investment and of course confidence in the long term in the Company you invested in. I’m confident here short and long.
“Re how is the market responding?” All in the toilet with respect to their share price. Ideal time to be dollar cost averaging into them over the next three months until Q4.
"I don’t understand as an investor yourself, what you would’ve liked to have seen?"
I just cannot seem to get to get through to you so I will try and make it clear one last time:
1) I agree with their strategy (other than not selling some BTC last year) that's why I invested
2) Unfortunately BTC has fallen sharply and caught ALL the miners out, not just ARB
3) In addition they have, by any measure, underperformed this year in terms of mining. This is indisputable but I believe Helios will sort out most of the issues and the rest (like terrapool) should be readily addressed
So on the above three points I don't see that we differ that much? Do we?
However where we do differ clearly is that I believe ARB are in no better place than most other miners to deal with the next six months should BTC not improve and in some respects they may be in a worse position. I have also given my reasons why I believe this (debt linked to BTC and rigs, low HODL and negative cash flow in part caused by the poor mining numbers).
No one on this board has provided any meaningful counterargument to this. Instead it's just about the future (if ARB gets through unharmed) which I agree with anyway or BITF (but we are in the same position) or MARA (that's just one miner and again I don't disagree much with your view on them).
I'm still invested in ARB and would really welcome any sensible and positive counterargument in case I've missed something. As it is I'm looking to the June update to either reassure me or make me reconsider my investment. As that's what I believe investment is about i.e. not to get too attached to a company but act on the information in front of you and if this changes then it is sensible to review your position.
FP, you are just arguing for arguments sake now.
OK I will still post what the missing 100PH from 1.6EH to 1.7 Eh would of made for argo in the last year when it was supposed to of been added .
I'm sure nobody else is as daft to twist this missing 100PH into an option instead of building out helios!
“Best thing though is simply for BTC to rocket and then we CAN just focus on future plans.”
Amen brother, that we can agree on, can’t see it happening just yet though, all in good time.
FP, you are just arguing for arguments sake now.
ARB chose to build a brand new, 100% immersion, state of the art facility because that is where they saw the future of the Company. They were still mining btc all the while and as of the last update still had a decent hodl for the size of the operation.
Had they chosen not to future proof the company and just try to mine as much coin as possible on an incredibly short term view, then I’m sure that’s what they would’ve done.
Look at the SPs now, none of them are high, all of them have fallen massively, it’ll come down to who is equipped to handle this and for how long. As I’ve mentioned, BITF sold half their hodl in a oner, and MARA are barely mining right now as the house fell down.
I dare say if you didn’t see any value in how ARB have chosen to set themselves up, then you wouldn’t be here.
Wait until the June update. ARB are in the same position BITF were (and still are to an extent). If ARB have any sense they will have done something similar to what BITF have done so expect that "2/3rds" to shrink - if not next week then soon after.
And once and for all ARB do not have much lower energy costs per BTC mined than many. Certainly compared to CORZ, BITF and RIOT.
I am not disagreeing with you about ARB's potential future (with 100% immersion etc.) but it's current position in order to be able to maximise that future is under real threat at the moment especially given it's low HODL, high debt (backed by BTC and rigs) and current abysmal mining numbers.
And for the avoidance of doubt I think there is only a small chance they will go bust. More likely is that they will need to scale back growth plans (e.g. push back intel order), sell most of their HODL (to get shot of galaxy loan and/or meet running costs and some outstanding capex commitments) and other potentially damaging short term actions.
Best thing though is simply for BTC to rocket and then we CAN just focus on future plans.
Limp
"Or they could’ve bought replacement machines to give them 100 (or so) more btc worth circa $2M today.
I think they made the right call."
Over 100 btc is just not the comparison I was giving to the building out of helios , as you well know.
It would of been many thousands of btc if argo had entered the arms race.
It was just an example of the small amount of btc that would of been mined this last year by just the small amount of the missing 100PH ... that was constantly ridiculed on here .
Just those 100 btc would be worth £10 million when / if btc hits 100k like I keep hearing..... thats a forward looking view that you keep saying others are missing!
Which is exactly what they are set up for Hexam. I don’t understand as an investor yourself, what you would’ve liked to have seen? A Company that doesn’t try to influence their future? Just mine a load of coin now and then hope for the best during the down cycle? How is that even investable long term? BITF just smoked half there Hodl in one go, MARA’s facility got blown down in a puff of wind. Jam today, forget tomorrow does not work long term.
No I don’t think I did Hexam, you referenced BITF and ARBK in comparison but it’s not comparing apples with apples. ARB have set themselves up with a brand new facility, 100% immersion, comparatively cheap to run with room to expand, and have a hodl that’s only 2/3rds of what BITF have left.
Hodl’s will disappear in the blink of an eye for some of the high energy cost, bloated miners.
"They are set up for Jam today, not too endure a lengthy bear market."
It's the jam today that may help them endure a lengthy bear market (as long as they haven't overextended themselves making that jam). ARB are certainly not 'jam today' but are not particularly well set up to survive the bear market either.
If they do though, without too much compromise, and they execute Helios well then I agree they should be in a great position. To make jam tomorrow though you need for there to be a tomorrow.